In this issue:

• New TNSDC Resources Aid Municipal 2020 Census Error Review 
• Working, Retirement Age Population Increases Drove State Increases in 2021
• Annual Income, Poverty and Other 2021 ACS Data Released Sept. 15
• Southern Demographic Association Meets in Knoxville

TNSDC Offers Resources to Help Communities Identify, Resolve Errors from the 2020 Census 

The window to file 2020 Census challenges stays open until June 30, 2023

Data from the 2020 Census was released one year ago and the Tennessee State Data Center has released new tools to help communities identify and resolve Census Bureau processing errors.

The streamlined three-step process can be used by communities to conduct a detailed review their 2020 Census data and most of the required data and maps are provided. The review focuses on locating errors eligible for submission to two 2020 quality review programs that can result in corrected population counts being issued.

• Part 1: Compare municipal boundary with Census boundary
• Part 2: Review group quarter counts and locations
• Part 3: Housing unit review along municipal boundary

Fixing problems in the 2020 Census data that result in net population increases for a city or town can be a financial boost. That’s because several Tennessee state-shared revenue formulas reference the latest decennial population counts. When corrections are issued by the Bureau, they are incorporated into the state’s Certified Population Report – the official basis for the distribution.

To date, three Tennessee communities have challenged the Census results. This includes the City of Memphis which recently announced that it was doing so as well.

Error in Part 1 Boundary Review. A discrepancy in Cleveland’s city limits in the 2020 Census led to a number of housing units and associated population being incorrectly reported in the unincorporated portion of Bradley County. The Tennessee city challenged the error under the boundary provisions of the CQR program. If approved, a corrected count of housing units and population will be issued and new results will be published in the 2020 Census errata.

Planning for the 2030 decennial census is already underway and a Federal Register Notice posted on August 17th invites input to help improve the next headcount. Please be sure to share your ideas about how outreach, technology and procedures can be changed to improve Tennessee’s -4.78 percent undercount in 2020.

Rise Among Tennesseans of Working, Retirement

Age Increased State Population in 2021 

Tennessee netted a 55,000-person population increase in 2021, but those gains were entirely from people age 20 years and older. The number of children in the state fell slightly.

An analysis of 2021 Census Bureau Population Estimate data showed that the largest population increases were among individuals over age 65. This group grew by almost 31,000 new residents last year; a level that was on pace with last decade’s annual average increase of about 32,000 people in this group.

Young adults age 20 to 44 netted the state an additional 29,000 new residents.

But two age groups saw decreases last year. The number of people age 45 to 64 fell by almost 4,400 people. There were also fewer children.

The number of people under 20 years of age in Tennessee was down by about 400, in large part due to contractions among the cohort of children age zero to four. This reflects both missed conceptions in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic that pushed births in 2021 to their lowest totals since 2003, and the continued slide of state and national fertility rates.

Tennessee Population Change by Age, July 2020 to July 2021

Source: Vintage 2021 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau.

Keep Reading on Our Website

• Information about population decreases in Davidson and Shelby counties
• How do Tennessee's changes last year compared to the national trends?

Annual Income, Poverty and Other 2021 American Community Survey Data Set for Release Sept. 15

Around the State

Southern Demographic Association to Meet in Knoxville

New Reports Highlight Tennessee Population Trends

In this section we normally highlight work by the Tennessee community, but some recent articles shined the light on some important trends that better help us understand the state’s population.

Declining Marriage Rates Vary by Race (July 2022)

New research featured in America Counts noted some interesting differences among racial groups, chiefly being the increasing rates of unmarried Black or African Americans in the country.

The report shows that growth in unmarried Black or African Americans adults in Tennessee was slower than the national average, but since 2017 has exceed 50 percent of the group’s total. In 2019, for the state as a whole, 30.6 percent of residents had never been married; a difference of 20 percentage points.

Teen-to-Adult Migration Patterns Show Most Young Adults Remain in State (July 2022)

81 percent of 16-year-old Tennesseans still lived in the state at age 26, according to new Harvard/Census Bureau research which focused on a group born between 1984 and 1992. Across the state, 70 percent still resided within the same multi-county “commuting zone” that they did as a child – a level matching national-level trends showing most young adults remain close to home. An interactive map found at migrationpatterns.org provides additional detail.

Table 1: Percent of young adults residing in same commute zone at age 16 and 26.

Generational Wealth Concentration Continued According to 2019 Survey (August 2022)

The Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) captures the details household assets and liabilities among other employment and income measure. An analysis of 2019 SIPP data highlighted some persistent inequality trends related to wealth:

• 41.2 percent of households don’t own a retirement account
• Homeowners had a median wealth of $305,000 versus $4,084 among those who rented
• Net worth of married households was five to seven times higher than unmarried male and female households

The article's headline spotlighted wealth concentration among the "Baby Boomer" generation (born 1946 to 1964) which was about nine times that of the "Millennial" group (born 1981 to 1986).

Do you have some work that you would like to share with the Tennessee data user community? Drop us a line at tnsdc@utk.edu.

New Tennessee Census Bureau Data Dissemination Specialist

Welcome to Tim Sarko who will serve (at least in the interim) as the Census Bureau Data Dissemination Specialist covering Tennessee. He is Ohio-based, but is still available for consultation and custom training on the Bureau’s data and products.

Congratulations to Tennessee’s own Ron Williams, who previously served in that position, on his move to the Bureau’s Center for Enterprise Dissemination – the group responsible maintaining for data.census.gov, the Census API and other retrieval interfaces.

FSCPE Steering Committee Election

TNSDC Director Tim Kuhn was elected to the Steering Committee of the Federal State Cooperative for Population Estimates (FSCPE) and will serve a two-year term in beginning in September. FSCPE was formed to promote cooperation between the states and Census Bureau in the preparation of nation’s population estimates. The seven-member committee helps determine priorities and coordinate activities of the group.

Data You Didn’t Know You Couldn’t Live Without

If need a weekly dose of data in your inbox be sure to subscribe to the Data is Plural newsletter. It’s a curated list of useful, informative and often entertaining data sources, usually linked to source materials. How often have lasers pointers been shined in pilot’s eyes in Tennessee in 2022 (241 times)? Where to find maps of weekly gasoline prices? What is Lake Mead’s Reservoir level? See what we mean?