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Autumn Newsletter
September 2010
Well , it's time for my newsletter again. Seems like summer just flew by. Here are some of the things that are new since I sent my last one in May.


What do you think of when you hear about foreclosed properties?

If you are like most people I talk to, you think of houses that are going to be cheap.

For the most part, that is true. In fact according to the statistics we have been tracking, REO (bank owned) properties have sold at a median price 40% less than non-distressed properties. In fact, the median price of sold REO properties for the last 3 months was $120,000.

However, this week has seen the addition of some higher priced houses to the Foreclosed list. Starting with a new listing in our office of a 4534 sq/ft house on the outskirts of Ashland on 26 acres listed for $841,500.

Other REO properties include

$643,500 for 4819 sq/ft on 32 acres in Ashland.

$695,000 for 3036 sq/ft on 133 acres in Jacksonville

$699,000 for 5344 sq/ft on 2 acres in East Medford

$770,500 for 5615 sq/ft on 1 acre in East Medford

$795,000 for 1791 sq/ft on 186 acres in Butte Falls

And the drum roll please......topping the list at a whopping

$4,850,000 get you a 5 bedroom/7 Bath 8500 sq/ft house with extra building lots, 2 additional homes, and 388 acres.

Now that's what I call a deal. ;)
Summary of Graphs--------------------------->

I have included the graphs to the right that I use when trying to ascertain the state of the real estate market. These particular graphs are what I use as predictors of what may be to come.
The indicators I use are
  • Pending Sales
  • New Listings
  • Absorption Rate
  • # of Homes Available Per Buyer
There is not much here that is new. I think that without the home buyer tax credit, which I discuss below, these graphs would look a lot more level.

My concern right now is placed more on the rural property. There are links near the top of this newsletter for market conditions for various areas..and then a combined report of Rural houses.
The number of active listings in that category has risen substantially, and the number of sales has decreased at the same time. This is making for an over 2 year absorption rate. This will drive prices down in this area more drastically than in the other markets. The median price of the listed houses in this section has increased from $315,000 to $365,000 at the same time that the median sales price has dropped from $255,000 to $204.500.

The area that seems to have the best news going for it would be East Medford. There seems to be a fair rate of increase in the number of properties selling, and even an increase in the median sales price. Additionally, the difference between the median listing price ($240,000), and the median sales price ($214,000) is fairly close.

The Tax Credit Expired-Aftermath
My last newsletter asked the question of what effect did the home buyer government stimulus money have?

My answer was I thought that the short term impact was huge. But I was really curious about what the long term impact was going to be.

And I concluded last time we're really just in a wait and see mode to fully assess the impact.

And now we have waited...and now we can see. From the graphs, I would say that the tax credit worked, sort of. There is a definite bubble of activity that happened in April, but it was followed by a depression in July. And now, most indicators are pointing to being roughly the same as last year.

Therefore, what I thought might happen did appear to come true. People who were thinking of buying rushed their decisions, and bought early. Which did reduce inventory temporarily, but the after effect lull caused that figure to return.

I think the benefit of the credit, and a reason to do something similar again was to give 1st time buyers some cash to make repairs that are needed on many of the foreclosed homes that are dominating the market at the moment. But I could just as easily argue that the effect of that is probably not worth the cost of the entire program.

A different program that targeted foreclosed homes, and provided extra money to make them livable would be more likely to help. There are loan programs that are designed to do this, such as the FHA 203k loan, but the regulation and requirements for this particular loan can be a challenge to qualify for. I guess what I would like to see is a more streamlined method to borrow home improvement/repair money and incentives to do so. Especially for houses that will be primary residences.
Protect Your Investment
Tip of the Month:

Before the weather turns cold, now might be the time to analyze your home's energy loss.

You can get an energy audit for free from most gas or utility companies. Some even will do a blower-door test for free that will show you where drafts occur, and where to focus your effort in sealing your home from heat loss through the winter.

In our area, the City of Ashland has great resources, and incentives for promoting energy efficiency. They currently have rebate programs for Refrigerators, Dishwashers, Toilets, Water Heaters, and Washing Machines, Heat Pumps, Thermostats, and more.
Go the the city's conservation page for an up to date list. City of Ashland Conservation.

Finding out how to get the energy audit from Avista is a frustrating experience. You can pay the City of Ashland $50 if you are an Avista customer, and they will come do the test.

Most of the other utility providers have teamed up with the Energy Trust of Oregon. to provide tools to analyze your home's energy loss.

So while the weather is still good, and the caulk isn't frozen, the the sun is shining...let's all do our part to reduce our energy consumption this winter.
Our pocketbooks, and planet will appreciate it.

Adam Bogle
Agent In A Kilt w/ Coldwell Banker Pro West
190 Oak Street
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Adam Bogle with Sign
New Listings Graph
Months Supply of Houses Graph
Available Homes Per Buyer Graph
FOR SALE: ONE ACRE IN ASHLAND, HOUSE WITH POOL. $775,000Living Room of Normal House

One acre and 2346 sq/ft house close to
stores and bike path.
See details at

Front of Normal House

Adam Bogle with Sign

Price Reduced $101,000.
11 Acres with 365 feet river front
See details at

Adam Bogle with Sign
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