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Boring numbers are good numbers. The year-over-year comparison indicates that the local market conditions are consistent with the previous year. Which is to say, the post-pandemic-normal conditions exist…
Inventory remains low at 362 units for sale.
The rate of market value appreciation is slowing.
The least expensive properties are in highest demand/sell most quickly.
The ratio of sales at the top-priced market segment is higher than the mid-priced segment.
NEW 2024 trend: time on market has been increasing throughout the year yet it has moved to point that is relatively healthy: 75% of properties sell within 60 days.
The decreased value in a few neighborhoods illustrated below is nominal and when calculating averages, such results are not indicative of a new negative trend...yet. I highly suspect that the property you own is worth more this year than it was twelve months ago. If you need to know for sure, just ask me.
I think the last six-month period has been the most intriguing timeline to analyze since the pandemic shift (spring 2021) ...intriguing due to the recent volatility in intertest rates, the local and national news about affordable housing, the political climate, and the discourse about current, national economic conditions -which is now seemingly subjective! Most of those aspects can affect a significant a real estate decision. Most impactful is of course interest rates. In August /September we saw rates drop fairly quickly from low 6’s to mid 5’s but they went back up about as quickly leaving us with a WTF?...
...so I checked-in in with my long-time-favorite local mortgage broker, Rob Grems / Central Rockies Mortgage in Avon…"The recent and short-lived drop in rates may have been due to expectations more so than the economic data pertaining to jobs reports and inflation. I am cautiously optimistic that the fed will lower their rate this winter as those metrics become more predictable and we progress through our political climate." In my opinion, when rates get near/below 5%, the sub $2MM segment of our marketplace will get very active and we will experience the next shift in our market conditions.
From Eagle County to the front range, showing activity and residential contemplations have been quiet. That is usually the case just prior to an election but this year, it seems eerily quiet…as if people are holding their collective breath. I would love to make a prediction about the results of our election and its effect on the real estate sector but I won’t. Actually, I will but I will not put it in writing! Let us simply hope that no matter what the outcome, civility and serenity prevail.
CONCLUSIONS
House hunting in the lower price segment and top price segment is the most challenging.
Marketing a home for sale successfully requires accurate pricing and 30-90 days of market time (remember, this is a generality).
"And now, let's do the numbers"
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