Federal Reserve of San Francisco
Several builders met with a representative of the Federal Reserve of San Francisco yesterday. The Federal Reserve makes decisions based on data collected 30 to 90 days in the past. Consequently, they actively hold Roundtable sessions to listen to industry about their decisions they are making today. Likewise, they want to hear observations of the last 30 days.
The Federal Reserve wants to hear:
- What changes are you making to your business plans?
- What is the customer asking for?
- How are prices for materials changing?
- Are you planning to make any changes to your workforce in the near term?
- Are there supply chain disruptions?
- Are you using Generative AI? If so, are there any productivity gains?
Your BIA was able to provide a diverse group of builders representing: Large Multi Family, Small Multi Family, Single Family, Master Plan Community, and Land Developer. All had a different perspective on our current economic environment.
Large Multi family would say opportunity is good, as single-family homes are even more expensive keeping families in a rental environment longer. Single family is finding consumer confidence affects the ability to sell a home. Too risky to take on a mortgage when you don’t know where the economy is going. This leads to an inability to acquire financing. Small multi family can recognize there is opportunity, but the ability to attract capital is difficult, the rates offered now are almost predatory. The Master Planned Community will continue to develop lots, but time when they are released, which causes a decrease in employment as they won’t hire the consultants they usually have on hand. The Land Developer is trying to buy up land as much as possible, hoping the basis will have a good return, when the market comes back.
All, very useful information for the Federal Reserve. At the end of the day, we understand the Federal Reserve has two key goals: Maximum employment and Price stability. Our final comment: While we may recognize the policies set by the Federal Reserve may benefit the economy, but the policies currently in place severely impact the housing industry, which will ultimately impact the entire economy, employment and price stability.
SD BIA was pleased to be able to share our observations and reactions to the economy as it stands right now. We will reach out to the Federal Reserve again at the end of summer to offer our observations again. If you are interested in participating, please reach out to staff.
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