Blog Post: Talking Climate With Your Crazy Uncle At Thanksgiving

Blog Post - Talking Climate With Your

Crazy Uncle at Thanksgiving

Greetings,

Well, it’s that time of year again. Another birthday, another COP. I try to think positively about both, but there have been so many of each and I am not sure I see enough good signs in either new occurrence coming up!

With this Blog Post, I will be as usual showing you some things that caught my eye recently, and then there is my Op Ed, which is hopefully a timely one about how to talk with your relatives about climate when you gather for Thanksgiving.

But first back to marking time …

One of the things you may have seen recently is people, particularly young ones, using the letters PPM followed by a number in their signature block or profile. PPM stands for Parts Per Million, and the number is the Parts Per Million of CO2 in the atmosphere, which is otherwise known as the concentration.

Scientists and others use 350 PPM as a “safe” number, and say that above that level the earth can no longer radiate heat than it absorbs. (You have probably heard of the group that named itself 350.org). The number of 280 is used as the concentration over past eons in between ice ages. So it is considered more or less the baseline prior to the industrial revolution.

Here are some of my own PPM numbers:

295 ppm - My mother’s mother was born.

305 ppm - My mother was born.

310 ppm - I was born.

331 ppm - I graduated from college.

339 ppm - I started working on energy efficiency programs.

354 ppm - My first child was born.

356 ppm – I started working with Congress to write energy & climate legislation.

357 ppm - I went to my first UN Climate Conference.

360 ppm - Democrats and Republicans agreed on climate change. Newt Gingrich and Nancy Pelosi sat on a sofa in front of the Capitol and declared their mutual agreement that climate change must be stopped. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi6n_-wB154

401 ppm - I went to COP15 in Paris.

422 ppm - I am going to COP28.

430 ppm – The level at which Scientists say will equate to a 1.5-degree increase in temperature.

450 ppm – The level at which Scientists say we will reach a 2.0-degree increase in temperature.

Let's all get to work. The future is not looking great, but the future has not been written yet. We can change it by acting fast and going big.

Dan

PS - I am not saying your uncle is crazy ... just using what seems to a meme these days. :)

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Links to Past Posts:

Monty Python and Climate Change

What You Need to Know About NIMBYism

H mm..So How Much Did My Heat Pump Really Cost?

What it Means to Be a Climate Voter

The Climate Conundrum of Air Conditioning

Predictions Made About Utilities Made 10 Years Ago - How Did They Hold up?

My Vote For The Most Under-Appreciated Impact of Climate Change

10 Things I Should Have Written About

So I Went to the COP - Here Are My Top 10 Takeaways.

Efficiency and Clean Energy - Faster vs More

Efficiency & Clean Energy - More vs. Faster

It's Time For A Climate Vote - On the Record

Good COP, Bad COP .....Thoughts Before Glasgow

One of These Things is Not Like the Others

What I Should Have Written About

The Serenity of Being a Climate Voter

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About My Last Post ...

A lot of you enjoyed that last one in terms of the play on the scene in "Holy Grail". Some of you suggested other scenes that could have worked as well. Maybe I should work on a script?

But seriously, several of you said that it came off as pretty grim - not the scene in the film but the reality of my message. Not sure what to say about that other than I call "em as I see 'em. But in my heart and in my daily efforts, I am an optimist. As for my brain....that is more of a struggle. :)

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Things That Caught My Eye ...

Apparently They Will Let Anyone In

Some of you probably did a double-take when you saw that the upcoming COP28 was being held in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. The way the COP works is that the location rotates from continent to continent each year. Last year it was in Africa (Egypt) and this year Asia (UAE). I don't know how UAE was picked, although I can imagine. The host country gets to pick one of their own to be the temporary President of the COP and it chose one of its Ministers who wears two hats - he is the head of the UAE Oil & Gas arm and its Renewables arm.

What I think is interesting is that for the first time (as far as I know) OPEC will be having a major pavilion (e.g. exhibit) at the COP. One way I could look at this is that it is part and parcel of having one of the major OPEC members as host. Another way is to look at it is the fact that a major topic for this COP is phasing out fossil fuels.

So how is that EV thing going?

There is a lot of ink being spilled EVs lately. And it seems to be all over the place - the story lines, not the ink.

One of the more personally interesting ones for me was this article about how traditional car dealers are not really ready to sell EVs, or perhaps even want to be ready. That is what I encountered myself when I bought my EV earlier this year. See it at https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2023/11/09/car-dealerships-ev-sales/

There are also stories that talk about EV sales slowing down and stories about them being robust. Stories about car makers retreating and stories about car makers reinforcing their commitment to staying their new course.

It makes we stop and think. Are we witnessing a rare thing? By that I mean the complete replacement of one technology with another that provides the same benefit? In transportation the last time that happened was during the replacement of the horse and buggy, wasn't it? In terms of heating our homes the last time it happened was probably going from cord wood and loose coal to oil, gas and then to electricity, but yet that was slow and gradual, and still is going on.

Here are some pieces to look at if you're following the EV story:

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ev-sales-rising-why-automakers-nervous/699453/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202023-11-13%20Utility%20Dive%20Newsletter%20%5Bissue:56390%5D&utm_term=Utility%20Dive

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2023/11/09/senate-oks-buy-america-ev-resolution-in-rebuke-of-biden-00126223

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/07/business/energy-environment/electric-vehicles-sales.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2023/11/11/electric-vehicle-charging-infrastructure/

Something of Climate Importance Happens Every Four Years. Wait...No ... There are Two Things!

Many years ago, Congress ordered that Climate Change was important enough that all of the appropriate federal agencies should work with all the best national experts to produce a National Climate Assessment that is part look-back, part snapshot, and part prognosis for the nation under climate change. The last one (4th Edition) came out during the Trump Administration and now we have the 5th edition of the Assessment. I have not read this new one yet, but will do over the weekend. I encourage everyone to take a look.

https://www.globalchange.gov/our-work/fifth-national-climate-assessment

At Least We Don't Have to Worry About the Grid, Right?

With all the talk about Electrification, as well as Resilience and Reliability in the face of increases in extreme weather events, one would hope that the electricity grid will sort of take care of itself and not be something we have to worry about right?

Two reports just came out that would make anyone think twice about that. The first is from the U.S. Department of Energy, and it says that the national grid may have to expand by two-thirds by 2035 - and that we are not on track for that.

https://www.energy.gov/gdo/national-transmission-needs-study

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/climate/energy-department-electric-grid.html

The second Report was issued by one of the most important but most unknown entities in the country when it comes to energy. The National Electric Reliability Council, or NERC, is the the organization that has the last word on how the grid is doing. They frequently issue assessments as we go into the summer and winter high electricity demand seasons. The one for this winter is not exactly rosy.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/north-america-faces-elevated-blackout-risk-NERC-reliability-natural-gas/699275/

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How to Talk Climate with Your

Crazy Uncle at Thanksgiving

Ah yes…there’s nothing like Thanksgiving to bring the family together, and often the extended family at that. The thing about extended family, especially ones with older members, is that some of them may have developed very different thoughts about certain things, with climate being one of them. And chances are they will want to share them with everyone else there, either proactively or in response.

One of the things that you have heard me say before is that reducing one’s carbon footprint is something we all should do but that it is not necessarily the first or easiest thing that a person can do when it comes to trying to help tackle climate change. And it may not be the thing that has the biggest impact. There are two other things that anyone can do regardless of how high or low their footprint already is. One is to become a climate voter, not just in the booth, but throughout an election cycle as I talked about in a recent Post. The other is to talk about climate with other people.

What better place to talk climate than the Thanksgiving table, eh? And who better than you to bring it up, not just with the older people there but with the younger people. You will find the latter to have a lot to say about it.

But I am going to try to focus on a hypothetical conversation you may encounter at the table. Or for that matter, if it feels right, you might want to start this conversation. Below is my list of suggested comments and responses if someone makes a statement or asks a question like the ones I show. They represent what I would say if I were there at the table.

However, if you have time before Thanksgiving, look at the newly released 5th National Climate Assessment. The Federal Government puts this out, by order of Congress, every four years. The last one came out during the Trump Administration. The Assessment is the product of 16 different federal agencies working together with over 1600 scientists and experts of all types. To me, one of its best features is that it takes a detailed look (and makes a specific prediction) about different regions of the U.S. So if you have time, at least skim the section of the Assessment that covers your region.

Here we go …

Are global warming and climate change the same thing?

Not exactly. Scientists in the 1800’s discovered that Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is a heat-trapping gas. That means that when it is in the atmosphere it acts like a greenhouse and does not let all the heat that comes in from the sun to then go out. The more CO2 (which along with methane are called greenhouse gasses) in our atmosphere the warmer the earth gets, and that’s Global Warming. The warming of the earth (land, oceans, air) is causing changes in the earth’s overall climate, with different impacts in different climate zones. So Global Warming is causing Climate Change.

Is weather the same as climate change?

No. Weather is something that occurs day to day and week to week. Weather is part of climate.

How do we know the planet is warming and the climate is changing? Isn’t this a hoax?

Scientists have been making detailed measurements for a long time, and among the techniques they use to “go back in time” is the sampling of ice cores. They are not guessing or estimating.

The climate has always changed, and it has been hotter in the past than it is now.

Yes. That is true. But not when humans existed. The amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is the highest in 4 million years, which is before humans walked the earth.

Why do people say that human activity is responsible for climate change?

Increased amounts of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses began to be emitted when humans began to burn fossil fuels in the industrial revolution. A graph of the amount of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere shows a clear match-up. Climate Scientists have studied this and concluded that the increase in greenhouse gasses is not coming from anything else other than human activity.

I have heard that there are a lot of scientists that say climate change is not happening?

There are millions of scientists in the world, and they come in all sorts of types, meaning that not all scientists are experts in the same thing. The important thing is to know what climate scientists think about climate change. And over 95% of them believe that it is happening in a serious way and that human activity is responsible. In fact, climate scientists have begun to publicly say that we are in a climate emergency.

The climate has always changed, so what’s new?

That is true, but never this fast. It has taken thousands and millions of years for the earth to experience past changes in the climate. We are seeing it happen in a couple of hundred. Many would say we are seeing it right before our eyes.

How can there be climate change when it can be so cold in the winter?

Scientists are not talking about the four seasons going away. But there are now measurements that show that seasons are shifting. It has been documented that in many locations Winter is arriving later, and Spring earlier.

When will greenhouse gas emissions start to fall so we can get back to the levels we were at?

They won’t if we don’t stop putting greenhouse gasses into the air. Greenhouse gasses take a long time to degrade and go away. A ton of CO2 will not be totally gone for hundreds or thousands of years. That is what is making global warming happen so fast. We are right now seeing impacts from greenhouse gasses put into the atmosphere in the past. If we don’t stop emissions, the amounts will continue to pile on top of what is already there with impacts felt for centuries.

Is sea level going to rise and if so, how much?

It is already rising based on measurements. How fast it rises and at what rate will depend on what we do about emissions of greenhouse gasses. It is also important to understand that sea level rise will not be the same in all locations around the world.

Isn’t climate change just a political issue? Does it matter which party is in charge?

It shouldn’t, but it may. Climate change will affect everyone, regardless of their politics, and it is not something that one party or the other should politicize. But politicians and parties do have different positions and proposed policies when it comes to climate change. If you want to stop climate change, you may want to look at these.

Isn’t China the big bad guy in terms of emissions?

China is now the biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses on an annual basis. But the U.S. is the biggest total emitter on a historical basis. And it will take many years before China’s historical amount will equal that of the U.S. Most climate experts say that further climate change cannot be prevented unless both countries act, hopefully in a cooperative manner.

Why all the fuss about EVs and heat pumps as climate solutions?

One climate solution is electrification. Because as more and more solar and wind is put on the electricity grid, something that uses electricity gets “cleaner” over time as the grid gets cleaner. Yes, an electricity-using item is using some electricity made using fossil fuel, but that percentage is decreasing and projected to decrease dramatically.

Why do we have to put solar panels and windmills (turbines) all over the place where they ruin the view and cause other problems. Plus, they only work when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing!

Solar and wind do not generate any emissions when they produce electricity, and thus are an important part of reducing climate change. Putting solar panels on rooftops is something that should happen wherever a roof is capable of hosting those panels. There are also other ideas being pursued like putting panels over parking lots. But researchers have shown that there simply aren’t enough rooftops or other commercial areas to host the amount of solar we need. Thus, solar farms – large groupings of solar panels in one ground location – are also needed to sustain our electricity system. However, they must be done carefully and don’t make sense in all locations.

It is true that the sun doesn’t always shine and that the wind doesn’t always blow. But one of the solutions to that is energy storage, including long duration storage for days. The technologies exist for all kinds of storage and are increasingly being put in place.

What is a carbon footprint? If we all lower ours, will it solve climate change?

Carbon footprint usually refers to carbon emissions caused by an individual, as in one's personal carbon footprint. But a building, or an entire company can also have a carbon footprint.

We should all try to lower our carbon footprints, for example by reducing our fossil energy use, but experts have run the numbers and shown that even if we all do this, it will not be enough. Industries such as oil & gas, utilities, transportation, agriculture and even cement are too large and reducing industrial emissions is seen as the key to sufficiently tackling climate change.

Won’t technology and inventions solve the climate change problem?

Technology will be part of the solution, and new technologies are already in use and new ones about to roll out of laboratories and factories. But the problem is speed. It takes time for new technologies to be developed and put into widespread commercial use. Scientists say we must reduce emissions now.

One technology that has been demonstrated on a very small scale is carbon extraction, where greenhouse gasses are “sucked out” of the atmosphere. But experts say it will take many years for this technology to be deployed at a large and wide scale.

Can't we just plant trees to solve the problem since they absorb CO2?

Planting more trees and other plant life is definitely part of the solution. but scientists say that even with large new growth they can only absorb and store so much CO2, and cannot be the only thing that is done. And experts say that the more timely and important thing is to preserve the forests that we have, and to prevent deforestation.

What about the kids and my grandchildren?

That is the ultimate question, isn’t it? The older people gathered for Thanksgiving will not see the biggest impacts of climate change. It is the young ones who will, and it is them for whom we should try to stop climate change.