BLUME'S BULLS & BEARS
By: Jake Blumenthal
April 17th, 2026
#121
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Weekly Recap
This week, the major market indexes moved sharply higher. The Nasdaq gained roughly 6% for the week, while the Russell 2000 closely followed, up about 5.7%. The S&P 500 rose close to 4.5%, and the Dow Jones lagged but still finished the week up more than 3%.
The Technology sector led the way, rising an impressive 8% for the week. Meanwhile, recent leaders such as Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples all declined. Energy was the biggest laggard, dropping over 5% due to the sharp pullback in oil prices.
We also received an update on initial jobless claims, which came in at 207K—well below estimates of 213K—signaling continued strength in the labor market and overall economy.
With earnings season beginning, we saw several notable movers beyond the broader market rally. Within tech, some of the biggest gains came from names like HOOD and ORCL, both up over 25%. AMD and other semiconductor names also posted strong gains. Interestingly, ASML pulled back despite reporting an exceptionally strong quarter.
In financials, companies like Morgan Stanley and BlackRock moved higher on strong earnings, while Charles Schwab and Wells Fargo were notable laggards following their reports. Lastly, Netflix dropped nearly 10% to end the week after reporting earnings that came in below expectations, with guidance for the next quarter also lower than estimates.
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Hot Topic:
"Clear Skies, Record Highs"
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I can’t be the only one enjoying this record move higher. And yes, this is an out-of-the-ordinary rebound. The chart below shows that this 9.8% gain over a 10-day period falls into the 99.7th percentile of moves—extremely rare. I think that just highlights the level of relief and confidence currently driving the market. We are on day 11 of the market closing higher 11 consecutive days, chasing the record of 19 straight days in 1990.
Think about what this could be telling us: without the war, and with oil prices coming down, inflation should start to ease. The economy and consumer remain resilient. I think we have a business-friendly administration, and if inflation and oil prices continue to decline, once a new Fed chair is in place, rate cuts could come back on the table later this year. And, of course, we have the massive technological catalyst of AI, which can make businesses more efficient and productive.
I believe all of this combined is creating something close to a perfect bullish storm. To me, the bulls seem to be back in control. I believe there are still sectors to be cautious on (like software) and others to favor (like semiconductors), but overall, it has been a strong rally pushing markets back to new all-time highs. Which a common strategy is to never sell while making new highs.
It’s pretty incredible to see how quickly the entire S&P 500 pullback was erased. SPY went from $695 at the end of January 2026 to $630 on March 20—a two-month decline—and then crossed $700 this week! This is exactly why I believe in staying invested, consistently dollar-cost averaging, and buying the dip. And if conditions change—say the war escalates again and we see another sell-off—I’ll be right back to looking for opportunities.
For now, though, I’m going to enjoy the rebound, especially in names like META where I was buying at lower levels, and continue looking for any cracks in my thesis or new opportunities.
It pays to be a perma-bull sometimes. With earnings season kicking off, strong results and even stronger guidance could push markets even higher. Keep an eye on what semiconductor companies, industrials, and financials are saying—it could set the tone for an exciting summer ahead. Maybe this year, like last, there’s no reason to “sell in May and go away.”
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Earnings to Watch:
- Tuesday: General Electric, UnitedHealth Group, RTX, Intuitive Surgical, Chubb Limited, Northrop Grumman, 3M, DR Horton, Halliburton, United Airlines, & More
- Wednesday: Tesla, Lam Research, GE Vernova, Philip Morris, IBM, Texas Instruments, AT&T, Boeing, Vertiv, ServiceNow, Kinder Morgan, Crown Castle, Knigt-Swift, & More
- Thursday: Intel, American Express, Thermo Fischer, NextEra Energy, Blackstone, UNP, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, Comcast, Freeport-McMoRan, Digital Realty, Dow Inc,
- Friday: Procter & Gamble, Gilead Sciences, SLB, Norfolk Southern, Charter Communications, & More
We have a packed week of earnings ahead, with several names that stand out. First, let’s get it out of the way—three major defense companies are set to report: RTX, LMT, and NOC, all of which should have solid quarters and report strong backlog and demand for obvious reasons.
There are also a few tech names I’m excited about. Tesla, obviously, will be a big one. ServiceNow will be interesting to hear in terms of how they are addressing AI agents and what they’re seeing going forward. Intel will be worth watching as well, although it’s still not one of my favorites. The two tech-adjacent AI infrastructure plays—GEV and VRT—are the names I’m most excited about next week and the ones I’m most confident in. These names have been on a tear. IBM is a bit of a wildcard for me, but since it’s pulled back from its highs and is so diversified, I’m hoping for a solid report.
Given high energy prices, I’d also expect strong quarters from names like NEE, HAL, KMI, and SLB. Other companies I’m watching closely this earnings season include Boeing, Gilead, American Express, and Philip Morris.
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| | Intel Corporation (INTC) - Man, people are calling this the stock of the year already, and I can’t deny that the turnaround story has been phenomenal. They finally have a strong CEO in place that people trust, and he’s clearly leading the charge. Personally, I hate missing a stock like this, but I’m okay with it in this case. The company was struggling—it was unprofitable, got kicked out of the Dow Jones, and while it’s up 80% year-to-date, it’s only up about 13% over a five-year period. I’m much more comfortable owning the chip names I already have, like NVDA, AMD, MU, MRVL, and others. Looking back, the key signal I may have missed was when Trump and the U.S. took a position in the company—it was a strong indication they wouldn’t let it fail. With domestic chip manufacturing in Arizona, it’s hard to see how the administration or other companies wouldn’t support it. Valuation looks expensive now, but this isn’t a name I would bet against. For now, I’m staying on the sidelines and continuing to watch.
Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) - This is a software name I’m currently unsure about. As we know, the sector as a whole has struggled, although many of these names have seen a nice bounce over the past few days along with the broader market. That said, a lot of them are still significantly down from their highs. For example, SNOW dropped from $280 to $120 and is now around $145. If it can break above $150, that would be a positive technical sign.
That said, this is a name I struggle to fully trust in terms of a long-term rebound versus the risk of becoming obsolete over time. The software names I do like and have mentioned (excluding cybersecurity, where I favor the major players) include CRM, NOW, AXON, MSFT, and PLTR. I’ve historically liked SNOW—many companies rely on its data and cloud management tools—but I believe the key question is how replaceable those services are. The stock still has strong projected growth, with EPS expected to grow in the high 30% to low 40% range and revenue in the mid-20% range over the next few years. However, the long-term outlook remains a bit uncertain. Personally, I’m not buying here, but it’s definitely a name on my radar. In this environment, I think any software company with uncertainty should be watched closely rather than aggressively invested in.
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) - The Mag 7 name that has been beaten up the most is finally showing signs of a rebound alongside the broader market, and I’m hoping this is the breakout we’ve all been waiting for. Over the past two weeks, the stock has moved from $360 to $425—a solid run that includes a psychological break above the $400 resistance level and a clear breakout on the chart. On top of that, the name still looks attractive from a valuation standpoint at just 24x P/E. In my view, this is a software and hardware company that the market is currently misreading. The 52-week high is still $550, and with the broader market and other Mag 7 names starting to rebound, I believe the most undervalued names could see the biggest moves—potentially META, MSFT, and NVDA (with GOOGL and AMZN as honorable mentions). With mid-teens revenue growth, around 20% EPS growth, reaccelerating cloud (Azure) growth, and its deep partnership with OpenAI, it’s hard for me to see this stock underperforming over the long term. It’s been counted out before, and we’ve seen how that played out. To me, this is one of those names like Cramer says "own it, don’t trade it".
| | * Disclaimer - It's important to highlight that, on occasion, I may have existing positions in the stocks I highlight in my newsletter. This disclosure aims to be transparent about potential conflicts of interest. Additionally, any stocks identified in this section are for informational purposes only and nothing in newsletter should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Although I strive for unbiased analysis, my ownership of certain stocks may influence those that I highlight. Rest assured, my commitment to providing well-researched insights remains unchanged. | | |
I like this chart because it really hits home with a lot of current issues and discussions—especially here in Tucson after the Project Blue situation. Anytime I hear arguments about water usage and energy consumption from data centers, this is the exact example I bring up. I know the data is slightly outdated, but I can confidently say data center water usage has not increased 31x in just the past 2–3 years.
What I find interesting is comparing data centers to golf courses. Which do you think is more productive for society? Do cities really need 15–20 golf courses (or more) and no data centers—especially when data centers can provide jobs, generate tax revenue, and, most importantly, increase overall productivity? What if a data center helps power an AI model that leads to the next major pharmaceutical breakthrough? Or enables personal AI assistants that make us significantly more efficient? Or even powers advanced AI agents that one day reduce the need to work 40-hour weeks—maybe even down to just a few hours—freeing up time to golf more, haha.
I’m not against golf at all—I just don’t want people, especially policymakers, to be biased. This is particularly relevant when you consider the amount of water used on golf courses in desert environments, apartment complexes watering grass, and similar uses.
And one final point: much of the water used in data centers today is for cooling. Over time, that should change significantly as new technologies emerge—whether it’s underwater data centers or even systems in space that take advantage of natural cooling. I believe there’s a lot of innovation coming, so it’s worth staying open to where things are headed.
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In Weekend Favorites, I share my thoughts on events I'm attending, the new series I'm planning to marathon, the movie I'm dying to see, restaurant craving to taste, trend that ticks me off, or the big game I won't miss.
Alright, a couple of things this week… First, I did make it to Ciao Down Pizza this past weekend, and I was pleasantly surprised. The vibe is interesting—it’s really just a pickup spot with no indoor seating. The kicker is you can’t even call in or order online—you have to order in person, which is pretty unusual. We tried their infamous Snake Bite pizza, which comes with bacon, jalapeño, cream cheese, and raspberry jam. I got it without the cream cheese, and let me tell you—it was definitely interesting, but really good and grew on me quickly. I honestly loved the raspberry flavor paired with the dough, bacon, and jalapeño. It sounds weird, but it works—and it’s seriously good. Definitely a must-try for pizza fans. They have a few locations, so check out the one closest to you!
Second, I’m all caught up on The Pitt and have been exploring HBO a bit more. I came across a new show called Rooster starring Steve Carell, and I’m already fully caught up. This show is hilarious—one of the funniest I’ve seen in a while. It has an all-star cast, a solid plot, and is just genuinely entertaining. It’s a great option if you’re looking for something lighter. I just hate waiting for new episodes each week—its the same as Scrubs! Now I’m juggling weekly episodes for Scrubs, Rooster, and The Pitt (with the season finale this week). Not a fan of what the streamers are doing to us here, haha.
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Sources:
- https://app.koyfin.com/home
- https://seekingalpha.com/
- https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals
- https://www.cnbc.com/
- https://x.com/home
- https://www.virtus.com/our-thinking/insights?
- https://www.franklintempleton.com/
- https://www.globalxetfs.com/insights
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