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California Governor’s Race Enters Critical Phase
California rarely sees competitive and unpredictable governor’s races so the 2026 campaign stands out as a rarity. The race to succeed Governor Newsom enters a pivotal stretch this month as the California Democratic Party Convention opens in San Francisco from February 20–22. The convention's endorsing caucus will serve as the first real test of which candidates can consolidate the party's diverse factions—and for downtown advocates watching Sacramento closely, the outcome will shape the policy landscape heading into the June primary and beyond.
With filing closing on March 6, the candidate field is now effectively set. Attorney General Rob Bonta was the last high-profile Democrat to announce he would not seek the office, joining Senator Alex Padilla and former Vice President Kamala Harris in declining to run. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan entered the race in January, rounding out a crowded field that lacks a clear Democratic frontrunner just weeks before the primary season shifts into high gear.
The unpredictable race is becoming clearer. Congressman Eric Swalwell has rapidly consolidated support from the business community in Sacramento, earning significant early endorsements, including from the California Medical Association and the California Professional Firefighters. Prediction markets currently assign Swalwell roughly 50% odds of becoming the next governor, followed by Mahan at 20%. Former Congresswoman Katie Porter is running close behind in available polling, though she is widely expected to face significant negative spending from business-aligned and tech interest groups as the race heats up.
Tom Steyer remains the only candidate guaranteed to enter Election Day with a substantial war chest, having already spent heavily on television advertising. However, polls have yet to reflect a surge in his support, and he lacks the natural base of party activists that candidates like Swalwell and Porter bring to the race. Mayor Mahan, positioning himself as the moderate choice, now faces a more crowded centrist lane after Swalwell has been actively courting the business community.
Under California’s Top-Two Primary rules, there is a chance that two Republicans could advance to the General Election. This threat will push interest groups to act quickly to avoid that outcome, which should help bring more clarity to the state of the race in the coming weeks.
The latest independent polling from Emerson College finds Republican Steve Hilton leading the field at 17%, followed by Rep. Eric Swalwell at 14%, Sheriff Chad Bianco (also a Republican) at 14%, former Rep. Katie Porter at 10%, and Tom Steyer at 9%. Crucially, Twenty-one percent are undecided showing that this race is still wide open.
Major CEQA Reform Measure on Track for the November Ballot
For California's downtowns, a new ballot measure from the California Chamber of Commerce (CalChamber) will be one of the most important for 2026. CalChamber’s ballot measure builds on recent successes for streamlining approvals under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). The measure, known as the Building an Affordable California Act, has now surpassed 25% of the signatures needed to qualify for the November 2026 ballot—a threshold that, at this stage of the process, puts it on a strong trajectory toward qualification.
Permitting and approval delays under the current CEQA framework add an average of more than $75,000 to the cost of a new home—costs that cascade through downtown economies by driving up rents, suppressing the residential density that supports retail and restaurant foot traffic, and stalling the public infrastructure investments that keep urban centers competitive. Mixed-use developments, adaptive reuse projects, and the transit and utility upgrades that support urban density are precisely the project types most likely to benefit from faster, more predictable approvals.
The Act is designed to speed up project approvals through clear timelines and accountability mechanisms without weakening environmental protections. Lead agencies would have 30 days to determine application completeness, another 30 days to select the CEQA pathway, and 365 days to complete full review. Missed deadlines would trigger a public hearing requirement with a final decision within 60 days. Courts would face a 270-day shot clock to resolve legal challenges. Streamlining would also extend to the water, energy, transit, and broadband infrastructure necessary to serve qualifying projects—a significant benefit for downtown-adjacent development. Core environmental, labor, and tribal cultural resource protections are explicitly preserved, and public comment periods, local zoning authority, and the right to challenge unlawful approvals all remain intact.
CDA will continue tracking this measure's path to the ballot. We encourage member organizations to engage with local developers, water agencies, and infrastructure stakeholders who are likely to be active in this campaign. More information is available at BuildAffordableCA.com.
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