Number of the Day

-15.0

The monthly percentage change in crude food prices in July, bringing the year-to-date decline to 16.7 percent.

Quote of the Day



“I think we need to act now.”



Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack

Thursday’s Highlights



The PPI (July) was unchanged on the month and is now up by 4.7 percent year-over-year.

The core PPI (July) rose by 0.2 percent on the month and is now up by 4.2 percent year-over-year.

Initial unemployment claims (week of 8/1) rose by 9,000 to 209,000, a third straight increase.

Quick Commentary



The inflation data has been almost universally tame in the two and a half weeks since the FOMC meeting in late July. This clearly hasn’t been enough to appease the more hawkish members of the committee, but it at least opens the door to another unchanged policy stance in September and should limit the magnitude of any tightening across the remainder of the year. With inflation cooling again and the labor market numbers turning shakier over the last few months, the scope for an aggressive rate hike cycle anytime soon is extremely small.

Today's Highlights



Retail sales

Consumer sentiment

Business inventories

S&P 500 Overview

Current Price: 7798.99

50-Day Moving Average: 7507.75

200-Day Moving Average: 7070.35

Exponential Moving Average: 7677.29

RSI: 67.4

10-Year UST Overview

Current Yield: 4.64

Upper Bollinger Band: 4.73

Lower Bollinger Band: 4.59

Upper Keltner Band: 4.70

Lower Keltner Band: 4.61

New Buy Pattern



None

New Sell Pattern

None

S&P 500 Valuation



P/E Ratio: 26.5

Long-term Average: 17.7

P/B Ratio: 5.9

Long-term Average: 3.1



EV/S Ratio: 4.1

Long-term Average: 2.2

UST Valuations

Real 10-Year Yield: 2.39

Long-term Average: 0.81

Real 5-Year Yield: 2.09

Long-term average: 0.43



Real 2-Year Yield: 2.01

Long-term average: 0.27

S&P 400 Valuation



P/E Ratio: 18.6

Long-term Average: 18.0

P/B Ratio: 3.0

Long-term Average: 2.3



EV/S Ratio: 2.0

Long-term Average: 1.6

S&P 600 Valuation

P/E Ratio: 17.3

Long-term Average: 19.2

P/B Ratio: 2.2

Long-term average: 2.0



EV/S Ratio: 1.8

Long-term average: 1.3

MSCI EAFE Valuation



P/E Ratio: 17.8

Long-term Average: 15.7

P/B Ratio: 2.5

Long-term Average: 1.7



EV/S Ratio: 2.4

Long-term Average: 1.8

MSCI EM Valuations

P/E Ratio: 17.8

Long-term Average: 13.4

P/B Ratio: 2.5

Long-term average: 1.8



EV/S Ratio: 2.4

Long-term average: 1.5

Random Top 10 List



The lowest price/earnings ratios among the world’s benchmark equity indices

1. Laos, 2.3

2. Bermuda, 4.3

3. Greece, 4.7

4. Venezuela, 5.0

5. Mauritius, 6.8

6. Latvia, 8.1

7. Jamaica, 8.4

8. Kenya, 8.4

9. Brazil, 8.6

10. Pakistan, 9.3