Although the Mayor has slightly shifted her stance on upzoning, the City must still address the State mandate of 82,000 new units by 2031, and YIMBY influences remain deeply rooted.
The above image on the left depicts the current proposed map from the SF Planning Department, which creates a speculative market on specified streets, hinders the construction of affordable housing, and encourages the development of tall luxury condos, which are not the type of housing the City needs most at this time. On the right, you can see the YIMBYs and their allies' proposed alternative map, which is significantly more aggressive and still falls short of achieving true affordability.
Cities themselves do not construct housing; instead, they issue permits for housing projects. Currently, San Francisco has over 73,000 permitted units in the pipeline, including 16,000 affordable units. Economic factors, rather than zoning restrictions, primarily influence the slow pace of construction.
Moreover, San Francisco has the capacity to accommodate 141,000 units within its existing zoned heights. Recent zoning changes allow for an additional 480,000 units in the form of 4-plex and 6-plex upzoning. Moreover, the State Density Bonus law provides additional capacity and height when projects include at least 10% affordable units.
Given the significant recent upzoning and existing capacity, these changes should be determined and evaluated before considering new upzoning plans that favor luxury high-rise developments.
Until both the State and local officials recognize the reality that upzoning does not equate to affordable housing, and refuse to bend to real estate industry demands, our city plan will be to "Manhattanize" San Francisco.
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