![](https://files.constantcontact.com/1034d597001/b4082881-46e3-493a-b731-2e76841f070d.jpg?a=1132851464832) African swine fever does not impact human health, but it's almost always fatal for hogs. There is no vaccine for the disease. It has spread to every province in China. Because ASF is spreading not only in China but throughout Asia and Europe, my organization, the National Pork Producers Council, is working very closely with USDA and Customs and Border Protection to minimize the likelihood of the introduction of this deadly disease into our country. But the USA remains free of this deadly disease, and the reality is that
China will need large volumes of imported pork to cope with the drop in production due to ASF.
Industry analysts estimate that
China will lose more production than all the pork the United States of America produces. Once China gets through the backlog of culled animals - and that process is going on now - Chinese pork prices and pork imports will surge.
Hog farmers around the world - and indeed the entire meat-protein complex around the world - are watching closely the ASF developments in China. Many hog farmers around the world are making plans to supply China with the pork it needs. Unfortunately, as previously mentioned, the U.S. pork industry is faced with a retaliatory tariff of 50 percent over and above duty paid by other exporters.
U.S. pork production costs are among the lowest in the world, with safety and quality that are second to none. But for the retaliatory duties, the United States would be in a perfect position to take advantage of this massive import surge. Pork prices in key exporting countries have already begun to show the impact of ASF. Spanish and German prices are now 10 percent higher than prices in the
U.S. The price difference will grow once the import surge begins.
Chinese buyers are currently visiting Europe, Canada, and Brazil to establish business relationships and line up supplies. Markets in most of these countries are sending price signals to hog farmers to expand. Once new facilities are built in places like Spain, Germany, Brazil, and Poland, they will remain in production even if pork prices fall. The clock is ticking. Unless the U.S. and China soon settle their trade dispute, what should be a time of enormous prosperity and growth for U.S. hog farmers will instead fuel jobs, profits, and rural development in competitor nations.
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