For us trade means trade and investment. And in today's geopolitical chess game, trade is a major piece. It may or may not be the queen, but it is, at the moment, the most active piece on the board. Oh yes, and there are a lot more than two players. To begin with the two that we have already mentioned, we suspect China will continue to probe and press its border claims in the Himalayas, just as she is doing in the South China Sea. On the other hand, at least for the moment, other priorities would seem to loom larger.
Atul Aneja of The Hindu explained the situation and the role of India this way:
China worries that the so-called trade war that is brewing with the Trump administration is the beginning of Washington's long campaign to impede China's rise. The Chinese have made no bones about the urgency of seeking India's backing to counter these headwinds blowing across the Pacific.
China perhaps views India as part of a larger pan-Asian riposte to Mr. Trump's America First doctrine. Beijing is also re-engaging with Japan, South Korea and ASEAN to make Asia the pivot of a new wave of globalisation.
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For our part, we would suggest not so much a revision of the above as some added nuances. Let's start with "Mr. Trump's America First doctrine." As we listen to the Trump speeches and watch the Trump policies evolve, it seems to us that his principal focus is not the pecking order of nations. It is the philosophy that the health, vibrancy, and strength of the United States are, or should be, the first priority of the U.S. government. And while it is true that there are many who see little connection between, for example, America's well-being and its trade deficit,
President Trump clearly believes there is a connection. In short, the world may be reading more antagonism in "America first" than is intended or is there.
Having said that, today's headlines often remind one of the Cold War, when two antagonists - then the United States and the Soviet Union - contended for the support of third countries. Things are different now, of course. Commerce is a much bigger part of the game. Indeed the two principal antagonists are themselves caught in a mutual dependency that is frustrating to both of them.
As for India -- a country of the east with strong ties in the west -- she would, as always, prefer to be non-aligned. Choosing sides is the last thing an Indian government wants to do, which can be a difficulty for Indian politicians. It can also be quite a headache for political leaders in Beijing and Washington.
