Middlebury Institute of International Studies
A Message from Our Founding Director
Thirty years ago, we set out to combat the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by conducting cutting edge policy-oriented research and training the next generation of nonproliferation specialists at home and abroad. 
Over the course of the past three decades, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies has created a global, multigenerational network of nonproliferation experts working in every conceivable capacity in the field.
Today, the nature, scope, and complexity of the WMD threat has evolved and has become even more acute. In order for CNS to generate creative policy recommendations and train the next generation of effective nonproliferation professionals, we need your sustained support
With your help, CNS is prepared to tackle the most pressing proliferation challenges. Our approach to education, research, and training on these issues is never static or “business-as-usual.” We constantly strive for innovation, cross-disciplinary creative thinking, and practical approaches. We are committed to expanding and diversifying our team of experts as well as the next generation of “the Monterey mafia.” We know from experience that, without question, our best products are those that are born of collaborations among diverse individuals—women and men from a range of backgrounds bringing a variety of perspectives, strengths, skills, and analytical lenses to the project. 
The thirty-year success of CNS has been made possible through the support and dedication of individuals and organizations who tenaciously believe in the power of innovative education to transform the world. Help us prepare for the next thirty years of success by supporting our work today. 
With my best wishes for the holiday season,

William C. Potter
Director, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and
Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar Professor of Nonproliferation Studies
Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey
Is There a Future for US-Russian Arms Control?
Last month, CNS and the Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS) held the eighth meeting in the US-Russia Dialogue series devoted to the state of play and the prospects—if any—for arms control.

From extending New START to missile control in a post-INF world, the discussions were constructive and forward-looking while being comprehensive and realistic about the challenges of a worsening political environment.

For a more detailed look at the scope of the dialogue, the following briefing papers are now available for download:

  • Prospects for Arms Control in the Next Decade,” discussion paper prepared by Robert Einhorn, Senior Fellow, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative, Brookings Institution; Fmr. Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation

  • Critical Factors for the New Start Extension,” discussion paper prepared by Victor Esin, Col.-Gen. (ret.), Leading Research Associate, Institute for the US and Canadian Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); former Chief of Staff and Vice Commander-in-Chief, Russian Strategic Rocket Forces (RVSN, 1994-1996)

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Anticipating a Most Unwelcome "Christmas Gift"
After fruitless negotiations, Kim Jong Un is turning back to his weapons scientists.

The CNS team spotted preparations for a new test at the North Korean Sohae test site, as reported on the CNN website. The December 8 test may be a precursor to fulfilling North Korea's threat to give the United States a "Christmas gift," should negotiations continued to falter.

Senior Research Associate Joshua Pollack discusses the speculation surrounding North Korea's promised "new way for defending [its] sovereignty." Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, Pollack noted that the North Koreans are preparing the Chinese and the Russians "for what's coming next."

That unwanted Christmas gift may be a solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile, as East Asia Nonproliferation Program Director Jeffrey Lewis told the Washington Post.

Beyond an improved nuclear capability, a "corrosive effect" of the US failure to resolve the North Korean nuclear challenge is, as Lewis told Time magazine, harming "the core idea that the US is the indispensable partner for Seoul and Tokyo." He added: "North Korea's nuclear and missile programs are moving a lot faster than most people realize. I think 2020 might contain quite a few surprises."

Editors' Note: Let's hope that the 2020 "surprises" aren't the ones Lewis detailed in his book, The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks against the United States.
Iranian Missiles on Parade
Research Associate Fabian Hinz recently sat down with Aaron Stein at the Foreign Policy Research Institute to discuss recent New York Times reporting that Iran has exported ballistic missiles to its non-state clients in Iraq.

Such Iranian missile proliferation mirrors evidence of Iran exporting missiles to groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.

"It is pretty clear which actors Iran has enough influence over to be able to direct and order a major attack," Hinz said. However, its ability to achieve "politically useful deniability" gives Western leaders—who may not be keen on responding with military action—"an off-ramp to explore other, less-kinetic ways of responding without risking an unintended military escalation with the Islamic Republic."
Applications Open for 2020 Programs
Farewell to a CNS leader
On January 6, Leonard "Sandy" Spector will step down as deputy director of the CNS Washington office after over a decade of leadership.

A former senior official with the National Nuclear Security Administration, Sandy joined CNS in early 2001. From late 2005 to April 2008, he served as editor-in-chief of the monthly web journal WMD Insights and later led the Center’s Project on Nonproliferation Policy and Law, before assuming the helm of the CNS Washington, DC, office. Previously, he directed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he published a series of books examining global nuclear proliferation developments, organized one of the leading annual international conferences on nonproliferation issues, and established the Program on Post-Soviet Nuclear Affairs at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

His most recent works include leading the drafting of a Model Law Prohibiting Luxury Goods Transfers to North Korea; coauthoring " The Other Fissile Material: Strengthening National and International Plutonium Management Approaches," CNS Occasional Paper #42; and coediting Preventing Black-Market Trade in Nuclear-Related Technologies (Cambridge University Press, 2018), for which he wrote a chapter on strengthening global law enforcement efforts.

Sandy, truly a pioneer in the nonproliferation field, will remain at CNS as a distinguished fellow, planning to focus his attention on the intersection of cyber and nuclear operations.

James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

460 Pierce Street
Monterey, CA 93940 USA
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