Good evening,

February 12, 2021 -- With the arrival of vaccines and daily numbers down to levels unseen since the middle of last October, the global new infections numbers have improved, but many locations are now settling at high plateaus, and quite a few countries have substantially inched up their daily counts in the last week, particularly in Estonia, Albania, Finland, Czechia, Turkey, Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Peru, Honduras, Paraguay, Jamaica, Cuba, Senegal, Nigeria, Somalia, Malaysia, Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Indonesia. In Mexico, many covid-19 patients are losing their fight with the virus, with a reported national death rate of 8.72%, significantly higher than most countries’ (1.5%-3.5%). Mexico ranks 13th in total infections, but is third in total deaths, well ahead of India, behind the US and Brazil. Now the good news: INDIA! The country was well on its way to cross the US curve back in November and yet, the second most populated country on the planet is now releasing daily numbers comparable to California’s. Although India’s daily reports were consistently the highest in the world from early August to mid-October, peaking in mid-September, the large nation is one of several countries that have imposed public masking mandates, with the strict issuance of 200 rupees ($2.75) fines to violators, who are given a mask along with their ticket. The lowered numbers are not the feature of reduced testing, they are indeed confirmed by plummeting hospitalizations throughout the country. Local surveys indicate 95% of respondents say they wear a mask when they go out. The mandated masking alone does not explain the remarkable improvement of the covid-19 situation in India; many Indians have robust immune systems, considering the population's exposure to rampant diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, typhoid, hepatitis, and cholera: "All of us have pretty good immunity! Look at the average Indian: He or she has probably had malaria at some point in his life or typhoid or dengue," says Sayli Udas-Mankikar, an urban policy expert at the Observer Research Foundation in Mumbai. "You end up with basic immunity toward grave diseases." Scientists will most likely research the Indian phenomenon for years to come. For now, it remains a welcome mystery.

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It has been over a month since the US daily case count peaked at the end of the first week of January, the nation’s deadliest month of the pandemic (+98,187). Although 27 states still reported at least 1,000 new COVID-19 infections in the last 24 hours, the country managed to report less than 100,000 new daily cases 4 out of the last 7 days. Today the nation reported 100,288 new coronavirus infections and covid-19 has killed 2,908 Americans in the last 24 hours. The national hospitalization numbers are also down: 71,504 (-21% week-to-week) covid-19 patients are now hospitalized in the United States, with 14,775 (-17%) in ICU and 4,849 (-15%) people fighting for their life currently on ventilators. In the last 7 days, covid-19 has killed 18,567 Americans (-15%) and infected 692,497 more of our neighbors (-21%).

COVID-19 in the USA

This week, California's 74,382 new coronavirus infections total is 28% lower than it was last week and 2,748 more Californians have died from covid-19 (20% fewer than last week). The steep decline in new covid-19 cases and deaths is welcome, especially as California, the state with the largest number of confirmed infections, also became the state with the highest count of covid-19 deaths. More patience, diligence, vaccinations, and compassion are needed to beat the virus.

2/12/2021: Reporting 43 new cases from the public bringing the total number of reported cases to 14,966. 

Of the 14,966:

Including its prison population, Madera County is averaging 47 new cases per day (29 per 100K), with 328 new cases revealed over the last 7 days. A slight improvement over last week, still above the average of 11 cases per day over 7 days required to switch our county from purple to red -- "widespread" to "substantial" -- contagion risk.

Today, the seven local counties together reported 977 new infections and 7 new coronavirus deaths. In the combined 7 counties, COVID-19 has infected 303,038 people and has killed 3,433 residents of our region since it claimed its first central valley victim, in Madera, on March 26, 2020.

COVID-19 in Madera + 6 local counties (+% is the positivity rate)

COVID-19 in the 7 counties together

The worst part of the current wave is clearly behind us in the Central Valley. The new infections have decreased to the lowest weekly reported cases since the middle of November. Although significantly lower than last week's, the total of 163 new deaths for the week is still high, well above last summer's peak. Our sharply decreasing new case numbers are encouragingly below last summer's peaks and 1,313 (38%) of the total 3,433 covid-19 deaths in the local counties, have occurred in 2021. The Holiday season has devastated our region with 54% of the covid-19 deaths reported since Thanksgiving (+1,843).

Keep observing the simple yet proven safety habits of physical-distancing, mask-wearing, and frequent hand-washing, that will help drive down new infections and new deaths, to a level low enough so as to give us a chance to reopen our schools for onsite education and thus, reopen our economy. Nothing else will work until we have massively administered a safe and effective covid-19 vaccine -- currently estimated by vaccinating up to 85% of the population -- to finally reach herd immunity.