THE TTALK QUOTES


On Global Trade & Investment
Published Three Times a Week (with occasional bonus quotes) by
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC  Tel: 202-559-9316
No.31 of 2020
TUESDAY, MAY 5, 2020

Click HERE for last Friday's quote on the looming debt crisis in developing countries.
KEEP FOOD TRADE FLOWING BECAUSE ...

“1 in every 6 people around the world depends almost entirely on international trade to be fed ... . That's 17% of humanity or 1.3 billion people. "

Alan Wm. Wolff
April 30, 2020
CONTEXT
Last Thursday, April 30, the WTO launched a new series of trade dialogues, this one focused on trade in food. There is almost nothing today that isn’t affected, influenced, altered or defined by the novel coronavirus and its associated disease, COVID-19. Food is no exception, and, fittingly, the subject for this trade and food dialogue (webinar) at the WTO was “International Trade and Food Security in the Era of COVID-19.” 

WTO Deputy Director-General Alan Wolff was the most senior WTO participant in this discussion, and today’s featured quote is from his opening remarks. (Because Ambassador Wolff was not able to participate in person, his remarks were delivered on his behalf by Edwini Kessie , who is the Director of the WTO Agriculture Division. The other speakers Thursday were Shenggen Fan from the China Agricultural University in Beijing, Andrea Gruber of the International Air Transportation Association in Montreal, and Maximo Torero of the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in Rome.  Dara Abdel-Motaal , a counsellor in the WTO’s Agriculture Division, served as moderator. The conversation she hosted was fascinating and well worth listening to in its entirety.

To cite just a couple of examples, cargo flights are critical to trade in fruits and vegetables and other perishables. Oh, yes, and for transporting bees to where their special pollinating skills are needed. But those who operate cargo flights have their own set of COVID-19 issues, from the lack of hotel rooms for flight crews to the closure of many alternative airports, airports that could be critical in an emergency. These were some of the things we learned from Andrea Gruber of the of the International Air Transportation Association. 

From FAO’s Maximo Torero we learned that the world’s stock of grains is in good shape, with harvests having been completed before the virus hit. That said, there are some issues. Russia, the world’s largest exporter of wheat has halted grain exports through June. (Presumably, the relevant quota will reopen in July.) Vietnam blocked rice exports in March, but that restriction has been lifted and trade is flowing again. For grains, we were left with the impression that the stocks are not the big issue, logistics are. 

Separately, in his discussion of fruits, Mr. Torero mentioned that consumers seem now to prefer fruits they can peel, foods like bananas and avocados that have protective outer covering, rather than apples or grapes where one would normally eat the skin.

The Big Picture.  It was Ambassador Wolff, however, who set the stage with comments on just how important trade in food is to the world. Here are a few excerpts from his remarks:

ALAN WOLFF:

[I]t is important to understand that international trade in food is not simply a luxury. The movement of food from the parts of our planet that have a food surplus to the parts that have a food deficit is absolutely critical for global food security.

1 in every 6 people around the world depends almost entirely on international trade to be fed and I want to expand on that. That’s 17% of humanity or 1.3 billion people.

Currently, there are over 30 countries in the world that must rely on imported food, not to increase their food variety, but to avoid starvation.  There are many reasons for this situation that include poor agricultural productivity, and serious land and water limitations. Many of these countries lie in Africa, and some are in the Middle East. 

Globally agriculture uses up around 40% of the global land area, and about 70% of the world’s total freshwater, mostly for irrigation. 
International trade in food is trade in land, trade in water and trade in energy.  As the United Nations Development Program tells us, were a country such as Egypt to aim for food self-sufficiency it would need three River Niles not one.  So I hope that this helps our viewers visualize just how critical it is to keep international trade in food flowing. Trade in food is not a luxury, but a must.

Ambassador Wolf went on to argue that the need for open trade in food is likely to intensify in the years ahead and includes fertilizer (and other ancillary products) as well as food itself.

COMMENT
Historians – some anyway – like to say that they imagine the past and remember the future. In his remarks for the April 30 webinar, Ambassador Wolff was remembering the past (admittedly a fairly recent past) for the sake of an imagined and better future. As he explained:

The WTO has vivid memories of the 2008 food crisis where, at the first signs of tightening food markets, countries rushed to impose food export restrictions, with one restriction leading to another. This cut-off the rice and other critical food supply of countries that have difficulty feeding themselves. Many were the Trade and Agricultural Ministers of countries from the Middle East in particular who put themselves on the first plane to Geneva to discuss the situation with the WTO.

We include ourselves among the fortunate for whom the 2008 food crisis was more academic than painful, and so it is worth recalling that:

By July 2008, domestic rice, wheat, and maize prices were each, on average across countries, about 40% higher … than they were in January 2007.

To compound the situation the emergency measures that were put in place were not so quickly taken off. Fast forward to today when, “17 of the 80 Countries that have imposed export restrictions, have done so on food,” according to Ambassador Wolff. 

On the other side of the ledger, efforts are underway to push policy in the other direction. On April 22 Canada announced that she had circulated a statement in support of measures to keep food trade flowing. These include pledges not to disrupt global supply chains in food, not to impose food export restrictions, and to ensure that COVID-19 responses remain targeted, proportionate, transparent, and temporary. The statement with these and other provisions had 24 signatories on April 22. By April 30, the number had grown to 49. We are not sure what it is today, but we suspect it is even larger.
***

The Canadian initiative is, of course, only one of several, and we expect more. Looking back to the April 30 webinar, the inevitable question arose, what does all this mean for the WTO? And the inevitable answer focused on rules. For us, however, the real value of the WTO in this kind of crisis is not so much the rules it has on the books or might generate but that it is a global forum in which the conversation among the members can be collegial, detailed, and respectful. In short, if countries are inclined to cooperate, the WTO is a place where they should be able to.

SOURCES & LINKS
Wolff on Trade in Food takes you to the remarks by Alan Wolff for the WTO’s inaugural, April 30 Trade Dialogue on Food. This was the source for today’s featured quote.   

Trade Dialogues on Food is the web page devoted to this project, including both brief notes on the speakers at the April 30 webinar and a link to the video of that event.

Russia Cuts Grain Exports is a Radio Free Europe article on this development. 

Lessons from the World Food Crisis, 2006-2008 is a link to the FAO 2011 report on this topic cited above.

A Canadian Announcemen t takes you to the April 22 press release from the Government of Canada mentioned above.

Proposed Disciplines, Open for Signature is the Canadian initiated statement discussed above, with the list of signatories that was available on April 22.

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