YOUR MORNING UPDATE
CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos Nightly #ELXN43 Tracking > BALLOT

Every night of the election Nanos captures the political pulse of the nation and is the authoritative go to data source. Here are last night's Nanos political tracking highlights:

As a subscriber you get access to the interactive Nanos data portal > ballot tracking > issue tracking > economic tracking > cut the data by region and demographic and see the trend lines
Non-subscribers during the election ONLY have access to the Globe and Mail/CTV News/Nanos National numbers for ballot and preferred Prime Minis ter.

It's a knife fight in a telephone booth.  Positive Sunday numbers for Conservatives grips front runners in a tie.  Green support shows possible slide.

  • Ballot Decided Voters - [Regional and demographic trend lines ONLY available to subscribers through our Data Portals] - The latest Nanos federal ballot tracking has the Conservatives at 34.4 per cent, the Liberals at 34.0 per cent, the NDP at 16.4 per cent, the Greens at 7.8 per cent, the People's Party of Canada (PPC) at 2.3 per cent.  The BQ was at 20.0% in Quebec.  [Also of note, exclusive of the decided respondents, from the total sample, 15.9% of Canadians were unsure in their vote.]
  • Accessible Voters - [National, Regional and demographic trend lines ONLY available to subscribers through our Data Portals] - Asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties,       per cent would consider voting Liberal, while       per cent of Canadians say they would consider voting Conservative.        would consider voting NDP,       per cent would consider voting Green,       per cent would consider voting for the People's Party and       per cent would consider voting for the BQ.
  • Nanos Party Power Index - [National, Regional and demographic trend lines ONLY available to subscribers through our Data Portals] - The Nanos Index which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot and leadership impressions has the Liberals at       points, followed by the Conservatives with       points, the Greens        points, the NDP       points, the People's Party       points and the BQ       points (QC only).

Login as a paid subscriber to the Nanos Data Portal to access full ballot (ELXN43 and long term tracking), preferred PM, accessible voters for each federal party, scores for each federal party leader, issue tracking, Canada-US binational annual research, public policy mapping, mood of Canada annual tracking trend lines.

Methodology for the Nightly Tracking

The Nightly CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos Nightly election tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation.  The data is based on a dual frame (land + cell-lines) random telephone interviews using live agents of 1,200 Canadians using a three night rolling average of 400 respondents each evening, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,200 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a three night rolling average of 1,200 interviews, where each evening the oldest group of 400 interviews is dropped and a new group of 400 interviews is added. Current data is for the three night period ending September 15 2019.

A random telephone survey of 1,200 Canadians is accurate ±2.8 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

The full methodology is on the Nanos website and the research was conducted and released in accordance with the standards of the CRIC of which the firm is an accredited member.

 
Nik Nanos
Chief Data Scientist
 

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