‌
December 2, 2019

Corn harvest remained just under 90% complete as of Sunday Dec 1, the USDA crop progress report said. This represents at least 1.4 billion bushels remaining in the field, much of that under snow.

Soybeans still in the field could be as high as 137 million bushels, much of it also unharvestable until Spring, leaving it vulnerable to freezing temps.

The Snow Depth map below shows roughly four feet in parts of the Midwest most behind schedule.
This wasn't a big surprise to the market and mostly confirmed expectations. Trade negotiations are also effecting markets as talks with China seems to have stalled. On Tuesday morning, Trump said he wouldn't mind continuing the trade war through the election.

On Monday, the U.S. said it would impose new metal tariffs on Brazil and Argentina which also rankled markets.

Those factors, plus some others mentioned below, have moved feeds in different directions California:

Rolled corn is up for the week after a board rally on Friday and Monday. On top of that, basis for unit trains is higher and commercial hedgers are eyeing the spread between Dec and March futures.

Right now, spot corn prices are based on Dec price of 3.73 per bushel, but as we get closer to Dec. 15th, the spot cash price could start to reflect the March futures, a full 9-cents higher or about $3 per ton.

Canola was up a little on Monday and Tuesday, but it's down from two weeks ago as soybean meal has fallen since then. Hopes of a Chinese trade deal seem to have diminished. However, the spread between canola and soybean meal is much smaller than its been in the past. For example, in past years if soybean meal was $300 on the board, canola would have been $260 in California. We're nearly $15 higher than that today.

That's because more of the canola meal is going to China, plus a steady increase of rail rates hits California hardest.

Corn gluten is now about $215 FOB for most time periods in California. That's up $20+ in just a few weeks. One processor is selling wet gluten in their nearby market and rail costs to California are up again, so it's more profitable to load a barge and export the gluten over railing it to California.

The Whole Cottonseed price seems to have bottomed out for the year. The crop in Texas is a mess and continues to shrink as poor weather and low cotton prices lead to a higher than anticipated abandonment rate.

To get feed prices on any of these delivered to your dairy, call your Penny-Newman sales rep.

Thank you,

Paul Quinn

P.S. On Friday, Penny-Newman and Live Earth Products will be hosting a luncheon at the Old Spaghetti Factory in Fresno on the benefits of humic acid applications on agriculture crops. First come first serve due to space. Check out the flyer below and let your rep know if you want to come.