TO: Clients & Friends 

FROM: Tony Langenohl

DATE: October 31st, 2018

SUBJECT: Wisconsin Polling Update; 7th MU Law School Survey of 2018

Marquette University Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin released their seventh survey of the 2018 election year . Below please find the methodology of the poll as released by the Law School in their press release :

About the Marquette Law School Poll

"This poll interviewed 1,400 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Oct. 24-28, 2018. The margin of error is +/-3 percentage points for the full sample.

For likely voters the sample size is 1,154 and the margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.

Fourteen issue questions were asked of half the sample. Questions on Form A have a sample size of 691 and a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Questions on Form B have a sample size of 709 and a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Form A asks four questions about political conversations and three questions about Foxconn. Form B items include views of tariffs, free trade agreements, undocumented immigrants, abortion, how the state has handled opioids and two items on education concerning teacher salaries and priorities for improving education.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 47 percent Republican, 45 percent Democratic and 7 percent independent. The long-term total for the previous 49 statewide Marquette polls, with 44,152 respondents, is 43 percent Republican and 47 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the current sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 32 percent Republican, 30 percent Democratic and 37 percent independent, compared to the long-term totals of 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 41 percent independent.

Among likely voters, the partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 46 percent Republican, 47 percent Democratic and 6 percent independent. The partisan composition among likely voters, excluding those who lean to a party, is 33 percent Republican, 32 percent Democratic and 33 percent independent."

Results can be found here: 

General Election Match-Up

In the fourth and final survey looking at the Governor's race post the Primary Election, the Marquette University Law School Poll found that the race for Governor is tied with Governor Scott Walker and Superintendent Tony Evers both receiving 47% of the vote. In the previous survey Governor Walker was leading Superintendent Tony Evers 47%-46% among Likely Voters.

Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson is receiving 3% of the vote, slightly down from the 5% and 6% he received in the two previous polls.

Similar to previous presentations, MU Law School Professor Charles Franklin highlighted that the electorate has become increasingly segmented by gender and education level by white voters.

Similar to the last survey, Evers is performing best with White, Female college graduates, however down from the previous survey. Evers is also performing better in this survey with White Female non-college graduates, who he trailed with in the last survey. 

Governor Walker continues to lead with White male college and non-college graduates, however the margin of his lead with both in this survey is narrower.

Partisans continue to support their Party's candidates, with both Evers and Walker receiving near unanimity of support from Democrats and Republicans alike. Republicans even more so are almost 100% behind Gov. Walker, with 96% supporting him.

Independents largely stayed steady in the latest survey, at +7% for Evers. In the first October survey they were +6% for Evers. Of note is the lessening of Independent support for Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson who received 11% earlier this month and is now down to 5%.

The last two Marquette surveys are the two most recent polls released in the Governor's race, and both had the race within the margin of error. The MU Poll accounts for 4 of the 6 last publicly released polls in the Wisconsin Governor's race.

Since the August Primary, the MU Poll has had the race at:

(10/3-7) Walker +1%

The two non-Marquette polls since the Primary were:

Compared to his 2014 re-election Gov. Walker is still performing about 3.2% lower in the polling that has been publicly released at 44.3% of the vote.

In the final survey before the election in 2014, Governor Walker led Mary Burke 50% to 43%.

Tony Evers is continue to perform slightly better than 2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mary Burke did in the same May to October window, averaging 48.3% in the polls compared to 46.7% for Burke.

Evers latest MU Poll result, 47%, is higher than Burke received (43%) in the final survey of 2014.

Governor Scott Walker Job Approval since last Re-Elect

In the final pre-election survey Governor Walker receives his highest job approval mark since his 2014 re-elect, with at 50% Approve -46% Disapprove among Registered Voters. This is up slightly from the last MU Law School survey where he had a +1% job approval.

In the final survey before the 2014 Gubernatorial Election Gov. Walker had a +6% approval, 52% to 46%.

Among Likely Voters, Gov. Walker has a 50%-47%, net +3% Job Approval.

With the exception of the September survey, Gov. Walker's Job Approval has been positive for most of 2017-2018.

For two surveys in a row, Governor Walker's favorability has been at -1%, with no movement in Favorability or Unfavorability since the last survey. 

Since his re-election in 2014 and subsequent presidential run, his personal favorability and job approval have tracked nearly identically. In this survey Likely Voters have a less Favorable opinion of Governor Walker personally, -1%, than of the Job he is doing (+3% approve).

Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers:

For two surveys in a row, DPI Superintendent Tony Evers unfavorability has grown at a greater rate than his favorability. Another +1% uptick in favorability since the last survey, for a total of 2% since September, and another 3% in unfavorability since the last MU survey, for a total +12% growth in unfavorability since September.

If the Election for US Senate were today... 

In the fourth survey following the Primary Election, the Marquette Poll found that State Senator Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield) is trailing US Senator Tammy Baldwin by 11% among Likely Voters, almost identical to the results of their September and October survey.

According to the survey, Sen. Baldwin has the support of :

State Senator Vukmir has the support of :

With the exception of the August MU Post-Primary survey, all polling in the US Senate race has been at a double-digit advantage for Senator Baldwin.

Baldwin Favorability:

For most of the polling since being elected to the US Senate, Senator Baldwin's favorability and unfavorability have consistently hovered near each other and in the upper 30's/low 40's.

Sen. Baldwin's net favorability has now remained positive for five surveys in a row. In the latest survey she has a net +6%, just down from her +7% in the previous October survey and +8% in the September survey.

State Senator Leah Vukmir is now known by almost three-quarters of Likely Voters, however with her increase in NAME ID, her unfavorable rating has also increased.

Vukmir has moved from a +4% just before the Republican Primary to a -10% in the latest survey, down slightly from her -13% in the last survey. 

Attorney General Brad Schimel continues to maintain a slim lead over his Democratic opponent Josh Kaul, 47% to 45%, +2% for Schimel.

According to the survey, Attorney General Schimel has the support of :

Democrat candidate Josh Kaul has the support of:

Schimel is leading by 20% with White Male Non-College, and 12% with White Male College.

Kaul is leading among White, Female Non-College by +7% and White, Female College by 10%.

Attorney General Schimel's favorability has dropped from +10% to +4%, a 3% decrease in favorability and a 3% increase in unfavorability.

Nearly three quarters of Likely Voters (72%) are still not able to rate Democratic Attorney General candidate Josh Kaul one week out from Election Day. This includes 51% of Democrats who do not have enough information yet to rate him. Kaul has a net 4% positive favorability; 10% Favorable-8% Unfavorable.

Direction of the State:

For six surveys in a row, and with very little movement over the last year, the majority of registered voter had been saying things in Wisconsin were headed in the right direction. 

For two surveys in a row the perception of the direction the state of Wisconsin is heading has remained in net double-digits positive, this month at a net +12% Right Direction, down from +14% Right Direction in the last survey.

The 54% Right Direction-42% Wrong Track is the same ranking for the direction of the state in the MU Survey right before the 2014 Gubernatorial Election.

Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Voter Enthusiasm:

The MU poll found that 70 percent of registered voters (+3% from last survey) say they are very enthusiastic about voting in this year’s elections, with 19% percent somewhat enthusiastic (-3%) and 10 percent either not very or not at all enthusiastic (same as last survey).

81% of Democrats (+5% from last survey) are very enthusiastic compared to 74% of Republicans (+4% from the last survey). Among Independents, 58 percent say they are very enthusiastic about voting this year (59% were very enthusiastic earlier in October).

Among likely voters, 25% say Health Coverage is the most important issue facing Wisconsin, followed by 20% for Jobs & Economy and 20% for K-12 Education.

When looking at most important issue by Gubernatorial candidate support, for those that say;

When asking Likely Voters what their next most important issue is, Health Coverage reminds the combined #1 issue facing Wisconsin and K-12 Education becomes the sole 2nd most important issue.

95% of Likely Voters say the Affordable Care Act’s requirement that preexisting conditions be covered by insurance companies is important to them; 83% say it is very important to them. In early October 78% said it was very important to them.

Eleven percent of registered voters say the state has done a lot to address the issue of opioid addiction, with 29 percent saying the state has done a fair amount about the issue. Thirty-two percent say the state has done only a little and 18 percent say it has done almost nothing. Ten percent say they don’t know what the state has done with respect to the opioid issue.

According to the survey, the majority of Likely Voters (59%) are still unwilling to increase gas taxes and vehicle registration fees in order to increase spending on roads.

In the last, 61 percent preferred to keep taxes and fees where they are, while 32 percent said they would increase taxes in order to spend more on roads.

Professor Franklin noted that among likely voters who rank roads as their most important issue, 51 percent are willing to increase gas taxes and registration fees . Among those who do not rank roads as the most important issue, 60 percent are not willing to change taxes and registration fees. 

When given the choice between further cutting property taxes or increasing spending for schools, there has been consistent support for increasing spending for schools (55%) over cutting property taxes (40%).

Similar to previous surveys, the MU Law School survey did a temperature check on public opinion regarding the Foxconn project.

There has been very little movement on two of the three standard questions on the project, except the first one, on whether Foxconn will be worth the state's investment. For the first time, Registered Voters, within the margin of error, think that Foxconn will be worth the cost.

President Trump's Job Approval

In their ninth survey released since Donald Trump was sworn in as president, the MU Law School poll found that 47% of registered voters approve of the job the president is doing and 50% disapprove of the way he is handling the job, a net -3% approval. The net -3% has been President Trump's highest approval since being elected.

The intensity of disapproval of President, those that strongly disapprove of the job President Trump is doing, 43%, is less than the total job approval of President Trump, 47%. For several surveys in a row those with the most intense disapproval of the president outnumbered the total of those who approved.