TO: Clients & Friends 

FROM: Bill McCoshen
Managing Partner
Capitol Consultants, Inc.

DATE: November 2nd, 2018

SUBJECT: Wisconsin Polling Update; Key Takeaways #6
Background on the survey
This summary will be different from the previous five.  Rather than showing you movement or trends we will look at the big picture and show a candidate’s path to victory in the final five days.  The final October Marquette Law School poll of the 2018 cycle shows two of the top of the ticket races are toss ups while the US Senate race appears to be settled.             

The poll included 1400  registered voters including 1154  likely voters and used the same methodology as previous samples.  The margin of error is +/- 3.2%.  The differences between each sample are the partisan make-up.  Each sample includes “leaners.”   
A D+1 sample is credible in Wisconsin.  In fact, the turnout may be slightly higher for Democrats.  As a reminder from our last summary, no public polling has been able to accurately capture the true level of Trump supporters.  It’s hard to estimate whether, and to what extent, a Trump supporter undercount could be a factor in the outcome on Tuesday.  
The Mood of Voters is very positive!
The first thing to look at to determine if voters are looking for a change is their overall mood.  Specifically, how they feel about the direction of the state and their own financial situation.  There are four questions on the poll that give us a very good idea of the overall mood of likely Wisconsin voters.  

The four key questions that establish the mood of voters are as follows:

  1. Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?
  2. Over the past year, do you feel the economy has gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same?
  3. Looking ahead, over the next year do you expect the economy to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
  4.  Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by or struggling to make ends meet?

Right Direction:
54% of all likely voters now believe Wisconsin is going in the Right Direction. That’s the highest number since 2014. Men are the most positive at 63%, but a plurality of women are positive, too at 48%. Voters age 30-44 are 55% positive and voters 45-59 are 58% positive.  These two groups are listed because they are the MOST LIKELY TO VOTE according to other data in the poll that will be explained later.  

92% of Republicans, 48% of Independent and 17% of Democrats think Wisconsin is heading in the right direction.   

60% of likely voters in the Rest of Milwaukee and Green Bay area and 52% of Rest of State voters think Wisconsin is going in the right direction.  55% of City of Milwaukee and 54% of Madison market likely voters think the state is on the wrong track.  

The three legs of the  “incumbent vulnerability stool” are; Right Direction vs. Wrong Track, Incumbent Job Approval and the ballot test (head to head).  Clearly, Governor Walker is doing well on the Right Direction leg of the stool.  

Current status of the economy :

Over the past year, do you feel the economy has gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same?
  •  51% of ALL likely voters feel the economy has gotten better over the past year. 
  • 55% of likely voters age 45-59 feel the economy has gotten better.
  • 53% of likely voters age 30-44 feel the economy has gotten better. 
  • 86% of Republicans, 17% of Dems and 46% of Independents feel economy has gotten better. 
  •  59% of Rest of Milwaukee, 58% of Green Bay area and 51% of Rest of State feel the economy has gotten better.  
  • A plurality of voters in the Madison market (41%) feel the economy has gotten better.

Economic Outlook:

Looking ahead, over the next year do you expect the economy to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

  • 38% (a plurality) of likely voters expect the economy to improve in the next year. 
  • 44% of men expect the economy to improve while 33% (a plurality) of women agree.
  • 39% (a plurality) of likely voters age 45-59 expect the economy to improve.
  • 42% (a plurality) of likely voters age 30-44 expect the economy to improve. 
  • 64% of Republicans, 13% of Democrats and 34% (a plurality) of Independents expect the economy to improve over the next year.  
  • 43% of Green Bay, 40% of Rest of Milwaukee and 36% of Rest of State and 32% of Madison market (all pluralities) expect the economy to improve.  

Your family's financial situation:
Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

  • 63% of all likely voters say they are living comfortably.  
  • 66% of men and 60% of women say they are living comfortably.
  • 62% of likely voters ages 30-44 say they are living comfortably.
  • 60% of likely voters ages 45-59 say they are living comfortably.
  • 67% of seniors age 60+ say they are living comfortably.  
  • 73% of Republicans, 55% of Democrats and 50% of Independents say they are living comfortably. 
  • 67% of Rest of Milwaukee, 65% of Green Bay area, 63% of Madison market, and 62% of Rest of State likely voters say they are living comfortably.  
The worse the mood of voters, the more urgency there is for change.   The evidence in the final Marquette poll clearly shows likely voters are in a good mood about the direction of the state and their personal financial situation.  Thus, decreasing the urgency for change.   It also means there is no sign of a blue wave coming to Wisconsin in 2018.  

All of this would seem to suggest that Governor Walker is cruising to reelection, right?  Wrong! While voters feel good, they are not giving the Governor full credit on the ballot.  That doesn’t mean likely voters won’t give other incumbent Republicans credit for their positive mood down ballot. 
Is Certainty to Vote more important than Enthusiasm to Vote?
Pollsters and pundits across the nation are fixated on voter enthusiasm in 2018. A better question to determine voter intensity is the likelihood to vote.  Marquette Law School asks questions about voting likelihood and enthusiasm, and the results are enlightening.  

What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2018 general election for governor, Congress and other offices – are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, don’t you think you will vote, or have you already voted by absentee ballot or early voting in person? 

  • 88% of ALL likely voters are absolutely certain to vote next week.  
  • 90% of men and 87% of women are absolutely certain to vote. 
  • 93% of likely voters ages 30-44 and 92% of likely voters ages 45-59 are absolutely certain to vote.  These are the highest intensity groups.  
  • 91% of Republicans are absolutely certain to vote comparted to 86% of Democrats. In a tight race, this difference could be a BIG deal!
  • 90% of likely voters in Rest of State are absolutely certain to vote.  This is Trump country. 
  • 89% of Madison likely voters are absolutely certain to vote.
  • 88% of Rest of Milwaukee likely voters are absolutely certain to vote.
  • 87% of Green Bay area likely voters are absolutely certain to vote. 
  • 86% of MKE city likely voters are absolutely certain to vote.  

If a blue wave was coming, then you would expect to see the greatest voter certainty/intensity in the City of Milwaukee and Madison markets.    

Now let’s look at voter enthusiasm.

How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections?  Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

  • 79% of all likely voters are very enthusiastic to vote next week.  That’s 9% less than those who are absolutely certain to vote.  
  • 76% of men and 82% of women are very enthusiastic to vote.  Again, significantly less than those who are absolutely certain to vote. 
  • 81% of likely voters ages 45-59 are enthusiastic to vote, an 11% drop from those saying they are absolutely certain to vote.  
  • 69% of voters ages 30-44 are enthusiastic to vote, a 24% drop from absolutely certain to vote.  
  • 82% of Democrats are very enthusiastic to vote compared to 79% of Republicans.  You can clearly see the Democrat enthusiasm comes close to the number of Democrats who say they are absolutely certain to vote – 86%.  But the 79% Republican enthusiasm is WAY OFF those Republicans who are absolutely certain to vote which was 91%.  
  • 81% of likely voters in Green Bay and Rest of State oare very enthusiastic to vote.
  • 80% of Madison voters, 79% of Rest of Milwaukee voters and only 72% of City of Milwaukee voters are enthusiastic.  
The bottom line is how you feel about voting  (enthusiasm) is a lot less important than whether you are going to show up  (certainty to vote).   Republicans have the advantage on voter certainty/intensity going into the final weekend on certainty to vote
Gubernatorial ballot
The race for Governor is tied among likely voters 47%-47%.  Normally, it would be a very bad sign for the incumbent to be tied this late.  However, all the data we shared earlier suggests voters are not urgently seeking change.  If they were, Evers would be up – likely over 50%.  Some voters are conflicted by how they view the state of the state and their personal situation vs. how they feel about Governor Walker personally.  The answer to that question could be the deciding factor on Tuesday.  

Either candidate could win on Tuesday.  It may be the closest gubernatorial race in state history.  The race will be decided by the voter ID and turnout mechanism each campaign has built.  We know Walker has built an incredible grassroots organization in his previous three wins for Governor – especially in the 2012 recall.  But we don’t know if the Walker campaign has made the investments necessary to ensure it is still as good as it once was. We’ll find out on Tuesday.  

Tony Evers has consistently run 3%-4% ahead of where Democrat Mary Burke was during the 2014 campaign.  Yet the strong economy, and a few unforced errors, are preventing him from fully capturing enough of the voter dissatisfaction with Governor Walker to pull away.  

The good news for Evers is the Walker team is not hitting the numbers they need to get in the Rest of Milwaukee and Green Bay media markets to ensure a Walker victory.  Yes, Walker is winning those markets by a large margin, but not as large as he has in the past.  Every vote in this election will matter.  The Walker team must hit specific turnout numbers in roughly 20 counties.  Evers only needs to hit specific numbers in about 10 counties to win provided he keeps it close in all the rest.  Clearly, Milwaukee and Dane County turnout are critical to Evers. 

Nearly all the Marquette turnout models give Governor Walker a razor thin edge.  If there is a Trump supporter undercount, then it will help Walker just as it helped Ron Johnson in 2016.  The mood of voters should give team Walker some confidence, but the regional ballot scores should give them great concern.
Final 2018 Marquette Law School Poll 
Gubernatorial Ballot Key Crosstabs
1,154 Likely Voters
Governor Walkers Job approval is 50%.  

That’s the highest it has been since 2014.  This is the second leg of the incumbent vulnerability stool, and it looks good for Walker.  56% of men are favorable while 52% of women are unfavorable.  Walker has decreased his approval gap with women significantly over the campaign and it stand at -7% now.

  • 58% of likely voters in Rest of Milwaukee and Green Bay think Walker is doing a good job.  (both +18)
  • 68% of City of Milwaukee voters and 61% of Madison disapprove of his job performance. 
  • 58% of voters age 45-59 approve of Walker’s job performance. 
  • 51% of voters age 30-44 disapprove compared to 48% approving. 
  • 50% of Independents approve of Walker’s job performance.  
The gubernatorial race could go either way.  Neither outcome would surprise me.  Walker is well positioned on two legs of the vulnerability stool; Right Direction and Job Approval, but he has struggled on the ballot the entire campaign.  He seems to be stuck at 47% regardless of his messaging.  More evidence of some voters being conflicted about him. 
US Senate ballot
Incumbent Tammy Baldwin has held a comfortable lead in the US Senate race since late September.  Challenger Leah Vukmir hasn’t been able to find messaging that resonates with enough voters to move the needle in her favor.  

In fairness, Vukmir has worked extremely hard on the retail side of the campaign and had strong performances in all three debates.  However, Vukmir will be outspent by at least 6:1 – maybe more. The cash advantage Baldwin has enjoyed has enabled her to play offense and define Vukmir in unfavorable terms with many voters – including some Republicans.  It shows in the chart above.  Vukmir isn’t hitting the numbers a typical Republican would get even in SE Wisconsin.  And she is severely underperforming with women voters. 
Final 2018 Marquette Law School Poll 
US Senate Ballot Key Crosstabs
1,154 Likely Voters
Even if there is a Trump undercount, it’s hard to envision a path for Vukmir to win on Tuesday.  
Attorney General ballot
Incumbent Atty. General Brad Schimel is currently the best positioned statewide Republican heading into the election on Tuesday.  Schimel has a slight lead of 2% which is well within the margin of error. But he is overperforming the Governor in some key data.  It also appears he has room for growth within the GOP base.  

This was the race everyone thought would go down back in the spring. Schimel’s initial campaign team wasn’t as sharp as they guys he brought in to finish the campaign; Brian Fraley and Johnny Koremenos.  

And Josh Kaul never ran a retail campaign of any kind.  That’s a decision Kaul’s team will regret.  Kaul’s wholesale messaging has been good, but it won’t be enough without a ground game.  
Final 2018 Marquette Law School Poll 
Attorney General Ballot Key Crosstabs
1,154 Likely Voters
The race is close mainly because of the atmospherics in the gubernatorial contest, but Brad Schimel should win on Tuesday.
The Trump Factor
President Trump’s job approval is 47% among likely voters which is tied for his highest ever.  Moreover, Trump’s job approval is 54% in the Rest of Milwaukee and Green Bay area media markets which are critical to GOP success.  His approval is equal; 49% to 49% in Rest of State.  
The bottom line is there is no evidence Trump is hurting the statewide GOP candidates.  There also isn’t any evidence, like there is in many US Senate races in other states, that Trump is helping.  Vukmir is doing all she can to align herself with the president, but it hasn’t moved her numbers.  Having said this, I would still bring him in one more time to either Appleton or Waukesha to help with GOP turnout.  
Issue Matrix Favors Democrats
Tony Evers has the edge on the issue matrix.  Likely voters say the most important issue facing the state are:
  1. Health Care Coverage
  2. K-12 Education
  3. Economy
  4. Roads

Evers has built his entire campaign on health care, K-12 and roads.  Walker has built most of his messaging on the economy. 

When looking at most important issue by Gubernatorial candidate support, for those that say;
  • Health Coverage is most important;
  • 65% support Tony Evers
  • 32% support Gov. Walker
  • K-12 Education is most important;
  • 70% support Tony Evers
  • 21% support Gov. Walker
  • Economy & Jobs is most important;
  • 20% support Tony Evers
  • 74% support Gov. Walker
  • Roads is most important;
  • 50% support Tony Evers
  • 47% support Gov. Walker
If undecided voters break based on the most important issues, then that could help put Evers over the top.  
Who will control the Legislature?
You can’t find any knowledgeable observers who think the GOP will lose their majority in the Assembly.  Sure, they can, and likely will lose some seats.  Pay close attention to suburban seats where the GOP top of the ticket number is underperforming previous elections.  But there little doubt the Republicans, led by Speaker Robin Vos, come back in control in 2019.  If I had to bet, I’d say the GOP comes back with at least 59 seats in the Assembly, or a net loss of 5.  Anything better than that is a spectacular performance in a tricky political environment. 

The state Senate isn’t trickier.  There is a path, albeit small, for Democrats to win the majority.  But all the stars need to line up perfectly for Dems to win control.  Democrats need to pick up 3 of 5 contested Senate seats.  Democrats currently hold one of the five based on the results of a Special Election in June.  But the 1 st SD is not safe for the Democrats.  The natural turnout in the 1 st SD at the top of the ticket could push the seat back to the GOP.  The next seat in play is the 23 rd in Eau Claire/Chippewa.  Democrats have already given up on that seat, so Kathy Bernier will keep it in GOP hands.  The final three contested seats are the 17 th (Howard Marklein), 19 th (Roger Roth) and the 5 th (open – formerly Vukmir’s)

Democrats would need to win all three if I’m right about the first two.  Or Democrats would need to win 3 out of 4 if they hold the 1 st SD.  That won’t be easy!  The 5 th and 19 th are reliably Republican.  Moreover, the Governor is performing well in both, and the 5 th is Vukmir and Walker’s home area.  The 17 th is more of a swing district but incumbent Howard Marklein has run a great campaign.  If this were a true wave election, then Marklein could do everything right and still lose.  His seat will be impacted by the top of the ticket.  Marklein has always been able to run ahead of the GOP top of the ticket. Can he do it again?  
I think the GOP comes back with 18 seats.  The one wild card that wasn’t mentioned above is the 25 th . The GOP is going “all in” to try to defeat Democrat incumbent Janet Bewley in Northwestern Wisconsin.  There is a confluence of events going on up there that will make this the most competitive race in that seat since Republican Dan Theno retired in 1987.  The 25 th is in GOP Congressman Sean Duffy seat and the National Republican Congressional Committee has targeted the 8 th CD in Duluth.  Both the WI-07 and MN-08 are providing the GOP messaging air cover which could create an environment whereby the GOP steals this seat. It’s not an impossible outcome.