|
The end of August before Labor Day typically sees a lull in the Central Oregon housing market before activity picks up in the fall. With the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.42% and inventory higher than any time in the last few years, buyers have better conditions than many expected. However, inventory is on the decline, and homes are selling steadily. At the Jackson Hole conference, Jerome Powell confirmed a rate cut is coming. The only remaining question is whether it is 25 or 50 basis points.
Market Trends
Making predictions about the economy well into the future is a fool's game, but I don't mind being foolish now and then, so here is my take! First, I disagree with Powell's assessment that inflation is no longer a concern. In fact, I see signs of rising inflation in energy and homes, amongst other metrics. Considering that Powell never reached target inflation, and with all the pressure on prices still in play, lowering rates today feels like a political move. Subtracting inflation from interest paid on loans is the real interest rate, and even using the heavily manipulated inflation rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, mortgage rates are hardly punitive. If rates decline, I anticipate well-qualified buyers returning to the market in droves. Increased buyer competition with lower rates will mop up any excess inventory and apply upward pressure on home prices, which are already trending up.
Deschutes County Listings
Year-to-date, 2,157 single-family homes have sold in Deschutes County, up only 20 from YTD 2023. The median sale price in 2024 is up 6.74%, with the average up 5.53%. The price increase of sold homes occurred despite higher rates than in the past several years. With rates slated to decrease and talk from the Fed of more rate decreases before year-end, I anticipate double-digit percentage increases in the median home sale price for 2025. I encourage buyers who have been waiting for the right time to take a hard look at the opportunities available today.
Bend Ultimate Guide
Inventory in Deschutes County decreased seven this week to 1293 single-family homes listed for sale. A moderate seventy homes are pending this week, with sixty-one closed transactions. The average closed sale price was $795,596.The median days listed for the closed and pending transactions was 36, with the active inventory at 68 days.
Crook County Listings
Crook County inventory dropped only one to 160 homes listed. A solid ten homes are pending, with five closed transactions. The average of the closed sales this week was $592,253. The closed sales median days on the market stand at 28, while the pending and active listings are each above 70 days.
Jefferson County Listings
Homes for sale in Jefferson County increased six this week to 116, a surprising change for this time of year. Six sales are pending, with three closed transactions at an average of $328,133. The median days listed for the active inventory is 73, with pending sales at thirty-seven days and the closed transactions listed for seventy-four days before buyers secured a contract.
Central Oregon Luxury Homes
I am hosting an Open House at 17037 Golden Stone Drive on the Aspen Lakes Golf Course on Sunday and Monday of Labor Day weekend from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. Come by, say hello, and check out this gorgeous brand-new home! Bring your questions about the Central Oregon housing market, and I will gladly share my insights.
| 
