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The pace of new listings slowed last week, which is typical for the second half of the summer selling season. As a result, inventory growth slowed from the pace leading up to today. Wall Street and most of the lending industry expect a rate pivot from the Fed at the September meeting, with one lender I spoke to yesterday pinning the odds at 100%. I mentioned some reasons last week why the Fed might be considering a rate pivot outside of fighting inflation, and I still maintain that those reasons are more of an issue than CPI. However, there is little doubt that a rate pivot will increase home prices. A 25 basis point increase may not alter the landscape immediately. Still, seeing how the stock market reacts when Powell speaks in his dovish dulcet tones, the speculation and release of pent-up buyer demand is unlikely to soften home prices. Rising energy and home costs will begin to enter the CPI, and I still expect a September rate pivot to be a long shot.
Deschutes County Listings
Inventory in Deschutes County increased more pedestrianly this week, with thirteen more total listings than last week, for 1270. The active inventory median days listed is fifty-four. Ninety-two sales were placed under contract this week, a 30% jump from the holiday-impacted week prior. Seventy-three homes closed this week at a median of $677,450, an average of $933,437, and twenty-seven median days on the market before finding a buyer.
Crook County Listings
Crook County homes for sale increased by one to 161, mirroring last week's statistics, with the median days listed at forty-seven. Ten pending sales were also identical to last week's numbers. Seven homes closed this week, up one from last week, and the days listed at thirty-two. With fewer expensive homes in the mix this week, the median sale price was 485k, averaging $695,928.
Jefferson County Listings
Jefferson County inventory increased by four to 115, with the median days listed for active inventory at sixty-one. Three homes are pending sales this week at a median price of $389,900 and an average of $423,299. One sale was listed for 20 days and closed at $982,000.
Bend Luxury Homes
We recently experienced a wave of price reductions, typical for sellers after the Fourth of July. Positioning for the remainder of the selling season is essential, and anyone with a home that has lingered on the market and is serious about finding a buyer in 2024 made moves to correct the asking price. Attractive homes priced correctly will always sell quickly, but only some properties have instant appeal. As we approach the end of the peak of the 2024 selling season and inventory begins to decline, more properties marketed since spring will start to sell. If the Fed rate pivot becomes a reality, it may juice the remainder of the year with increased activity. With so many in and around the real estate industry talking about rate pivots for nearly two years, the expectations are at an all-time high. Anyone who sat out the last period of higher rates will likely re-engage the market, driving prices higher. I haven't heard anyone use "soft landing" in a while. Still, the premise behind the terminology implies that the economy dodged a difficult recession, and everything is business as usual. If that is true, it is hard to imagine home prices in Central Oregon going anywhere but up.
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