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This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.87%. While today's rate is down slightly, the trends have been moving sideways without any appreciable move from the upper and lower bounds of the last several months. Many analysts on Wall Street and in the real estate industry are betting on a pivot at the Fed meeting in September based on inflation data that has also mostly moved sideways. With the trend in home prices continuing to rise, I fail to see where a 25 basis point decrease in rates from the Fed changes home affordability much, but every little bit helps. Those convinced that rates will decrease appear to believe a pivot will begin a downward trend where rates bottom out somewhere in the fives for home mortgages. Candidly, I am not convinced of a rate pivot in September, and doubt a downward spiral in the mortgage markets is coming this year or next. Rates in the high five percent range might be possible sometime in 2025, but from my perspective, it is not probable.
Deschutes County Listings
This week, the number of single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County increased by thirteen to 1287. During the same week last year, 861 homes were listed, an increase of nearly 50%. The market is chugging along with seventy-four pending sales in the previous week and fifty-seven closed transactions. The pending and sold volume is similar to last year, and simple math shows buyers with considerably more selection than in the recent past. The trends in the high-end of Deschutes County are remarkable, with seventeen sales year-to-date over $3M, with a median sale price of $3,750,000. Year-to-date 2023, nine sales were above $3M at a median of $3,200,000. That is an 88.89% increase in sales volume and a 17.2% increase in the median sale price. If you are interested in this segment of the Central Oregon market, I have access to a few off-market properties that are the best-of-the-best for our area.
Crook County Listings
Crook County's inventory increased by four this week to 165 single-family homes for sale. Activity remains consistent, with five pending sales and eleven closed weekly transactions. The pending median sale price was 640k, and the closed median sale price was 480k. None of the pending sales reduced the sale price, and the average reduction for the closed transactions was -2.61%. This week last year, there were 156 listings, six pending sales, and three closed transactions. Crook County activity remains steady, with sellers getting their price.
Jefferson County Listings
Jefferson County inventory declined by three this week to 113, with the median active list price at $459,900. Four pending sales and eight closed transactions show steady activity for peak season. The median pending sale price for the week was $359,900, and the median closed price was $387,999. This week last year, there were only seventy-three listings, with three pending and three closed transactions, at a median of $355k and $327k, respectively.
Bend Ultimate Guide
From now through Labor Day, the pace of new listings will slow, and inventory will begin to taper toward winter. Total inventory should start to decrease slowly sometime in August. A rate decrease could spur more activity for the remainder of the selling season; however, I don't expect anything drastic if it is only 25 basis points. Price reductions have increased, but the median sale price is still up. Year-to-date, in 2023, for all price points of single-family homes in Deschutes County, there were 1740 sales at a median sale price of $645,000. So far, in 2024, there have been 1784 sales at a median of $696,250. That is a modest 2.5% increase in transaction volume and a not-so-modest 7.9% increase in the median sale price. The chances of a drop in the median sale price through the second half of 2024, especially if interest rates decline, is close to zero.
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