A year out from the GOP gubernatorial primary,
Robson and Biggs race to the right
With 365 days until Arizona’s 2026 primary elections, the Republican gubernatorial primary field has two clear candidates vying to prove their conservative chops.
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Strong Majorities Favor Pro-Growth Tax Provisions
Recent public opinion data reports mixed results in terms of voter sentiment toward the One Big Beautiful Bill. A closer look at recent public opinion polls shows that large percentages of Americans are unfamiliar with the details of the bill.
A recent survey highlights widespread public support for extending pro-growth tax provisions, emphasizing their role in driving economic growth and improving the lives of American workers and businesses.
Key details:
- 71% of voters say they would be more likely to support Congressional candidates who voted to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent.
- 65% support permanently extending the key pro-growth provisions of the 2017 TCJA.
- 62% support permanently allowing businesses to fully expense investments in machinery, equipment, and technology.
- 67% favor permanently restoring the deduction for R&D.
- 64% support permanently restoring business interest deductions.
The message is clear: Americans support tax policies that promote economic growth, investment, and opportunity. Additionally, making the 2017 tax cuts permanent and avoiding the largest tax cut in history is a huge win.
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Small Businesses Face a $200 Billion Tariff Tax
The tariff tax will cost American small businesses hundreds of billions of dollars, according to U.S. Chamber calculations.
There are just over 236,000 small business importers, and in 2023 (the most recent data available), they imported over $868 billion worth of goods.
- Based on country-level tariffs announced on July 31 (or, where applicable the existing tariff rate) to the known-level of small business imports, American small businesses will shoulder a $202 billion annual tariff tax burden.
Tariffs are a tax on the entire economy and add to small businesses’ costs, impacting their ability to remain competitive and profitable
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Hobbs pursues a drug discount card program as an alternative to price caps
Key Points:
- Gov. Katie Hobbs pursues state-issued discount card for prescription drugs
- The card offers an average 18% discount for named drugs and 80% for generics
- Arizona residents will be eligible to enroll in the discount card program in 2026
Unable to get traction on her 2024 controversial plan to cap drug prices, Gov. Katie Hobbs is pursuing an alternate approach: a state-issued discount card.
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Echoes in the Halls
Arizona’s district schools are sitting on 78 million square feet of excess space.
That’s enough for more than 630,000 students.
That unused real estate is worth $12.2 billion and costs taxpayers $1 billion every year to maintain.
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Arizona Jobs & Labor Force Update - June 2025
Arizona lost 8,400 jobs in June
Ranking 46th in the nation for job growth.
That’s two straight months of job losses, while the national economy continues to grow.
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What new era of water rights and distribution means for Arizona
Arizona is about to enter a new era when it comes to water rights and distribution.
The state’s main source of surface water — the Colorado River — has been dwindling as a result of climate change and increased water demand.
That means less water for approximately 40 million people in two countries, seven states, and 30 Native American tribes. And the rules that govern how states face water cuts are set to expire on Dec. 31, 2026.
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Navigating the New Tax Law: What Small Businesses Need to Know
The recently enacted “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” introduces significant tax reforms designed to support small business growth. These changes are retroactive to January 20, 2025, allowing business owners to maximize savings immediately.
The law includes permanent deductions, enhanced credits, and expanded eligibility criteria, providing small businesses with more opportunities to reinvest in their operations, workforce, and communities
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Tariffs Bring Massive New Taxes on Food, Apparel, Back-to-School Items
By the Numbers:
In just two months this summer, federal tariffs were imposed:
- $1.9 billion in new taxes on food.
- $73 million in new taxes on school supplies.
- $1.9 billion in new taxes on clothes and shoes.
These record-level tariffs are driving up costs for wholesalers and manufacturers, with a growing share of these expenses expected to be passed on to consumers in the coming months.
While Americans are already shouldering the burden of these tariffs, the ripple effects on prices for everyday essentials like food, apparel, and back-to-school items are just beginning to emerge.
As tariff revenue continues to climb, businesses and families alike are bracing for higher costs, further straining budgets and economic stability
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Small Business Optimism Rises Slightly in July as Businesses Look to Expand
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.7 points in July to 100.3, slightly above the 52-year average of 98. Contributing most to the rise in the Optimism Index were respondents reporting better business conditions and reporting that it is a good time to expand. In contrast to the Optimism Index, the Uncertainty Index increased by eight points from June to 97. Twenty-one percent of small business owners reported labor quality as their single most important problem, up five points from June and ranking as the top problem.
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Arizona’s Housing Crisis
FOX 10 featured CSI’s latest Housing Quarterly Update, analysing the data behind one of the state’s most pressing issues—housing affordability and supply.
- Persistent Deficit: Arizona’s immediate housing shortage sits at 56,047 units—virtually unchanged from 2024. On a cumulative basis, the state is short 121,334 units.
- Permitting Slowdown: Residential permits are down 21.5% from Q1 2024, putting 2025 on track for the slowest pace since 2019—far below the level needed to meet demand.
- Affordability Strain:
- Average home price: $434,797—53.6% higher than in 2019.
- Average monthly mortgage payment: $2,414, more than double the cost in 2019.
- To afford that home, a household needs an income of $96,490 or the equivalent of 65 work hours per month at the average wage.
- Housing “Misery Index”: Costs for buyers remain near record highs, with mortgage payments still more than double 2019 levels.
Report Card Drop: Arizona’s overall housing grade fell from C- to D, reflecting low permitting-to-shortfall ratios and a worsening timeline to close the deficit
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State Revenue Up $51 Million
July 2025 General Fund revenues were $1.26 billion, an amount which represents a decrease of (6.9)% below July 2024. Even with this year-over-year revenue decline, the state generated a forecast gain of $51 million in July compared to the enacted budget revenue forecast.
This combination of a revenue decline and forecast gain is the result of 2 factors: 1) The state experienced a significant decline in non-tax revenues, however, that was expected as the state received a large one-time deposit of Medicaid Hospital
Revenue in July 2024 that was not scheduled to reoccur this July; and 2) While the state saw mixed results in the main tax categories, Sales Tax and Individual Income Tax performed well enough to overcome the significant decline in Corporate Income Tax revenue.
Arizona Jobs & Labor Force July Update
Arizona lost 4,900 nonfarm jobs in July on a seasonally adjusted basis.
This marks the third consecutive month of job losses.
The manufacturing sector continues to decline, losing 1,100 jobs in July and 3,100 jobs year-over-year.
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Arizona Ranked Last in the Nation for Labor Market Performance
Arizona lost 4,900 jobs in July, marking the third straight month of job losses. Since April, Arizona has ranked last in the nation for labor market performance, shedding 23,400 jobs total.
What the Data Shows:
→ July job losses: −4,900 jobs (−0.15%)
→ Since April: Arizona ranks last in the U.S. for labor market performance
→ Year-over-year: +29,600 jobs (+0.9%), but growth has slowed sharply
Workforce Trends:
→ Arizona has 254,400 fewer workers than if pre-pandemic 2017–2019 trends had continued
→ Unemployment steady at 4.1% for five months
→ Labor force participation holding at 61.4%
Sector Performance:
→ Manufacturing continues to weaken: −1,100 jobs in July and −3,100 over the year (−1.6%)
→ Fastest growth: Mining & Logging (+1,400 jobs YOY, +9.5%)
→ Biggest monthly decline: Leisure & Hospitality (−0.9%)
Wages:
→ Average hourly wages: $34.79 (up $0.10 in July)
→ Wages in the state are up 4.9% over the last 12-months, ranking Arizona 14th among all states and D.C.
→ Real wages in Arizona: +4.0% vs. +1.1% nationally
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Schweikert considers bid for Arizona governor
Key Points:
- US Rep. David Schweikert mulls running for GOP nomination for governor
- Congressman’s chances, motive are questioned
- Crowded Democratic field lines up in CD1 to challenge Schweikert
Arizona Congressman David Schweikert is considering entering the state’s gubernatorial race. If the decision is made official, he would join a crowded GOP lineup and vacate a congressional seat in one of the nation’s most competitive districts.
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Tariff Concerns for Small Business Owners Rise in August
54% Share who believe across-the-board tariffs will have a negative impact.
4% Share who believe across-the-board tariffs will have a positive impact.
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Financial Fraud Is Costing Arizonans Billions
A new report from Common Sense Institute Arizona shows that Arizonans are expected to lose $4 billion to financial fraud in 2025 alone, including reported and unreported cases.
The Personal Price:
• $521 million in fraud was reported in 2024
• Equivalent to $69 per Arizonan or $182 per household
• That’s like adding a 4–8% increase to your annual income tax bill
• Average loss per fraud incident in Arizona: $6,270—29% higher than the national average
Fraud Is Growing Fast:
• Reported fraud has increased 379% since 2020
• Arizona saw nearly 55,000 cases in 2024
• Arizona now ranks 11th highest in the country for fraud incidence (1,459 per 100,000 residents)
• Arizonans aged 60 and over account for 66% of all reported losses
Wider Economic Impact:
• $4 billion in total fraud losses (reported + unreported) estimated for 2025
• Estimated to cost:
→ 45,000 jobs
→ $5.2 billion in lost GDP
• Estimated to raise prices by 0.12% for all Arizona consumers
• $220 million in lost state tax revenue from reduced spending
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