"Just Thinking"

“Just Thinking"


On August 11, 1934, a group of federal prisoners classified as the nation’s “most dangerous” arrived at Alcatraz Island, a 22-acre rocky outcrop located 1.5 miles offshore in San Francisco Bay.


Growing up in San Francisco, Alcatraz was always there, sitting in the middle of the bay between the Golden Gate and Bay Bridges. Although the prison closed in 1963, when I was still a kid, the island remained a constant presence on the horizon. For me, Alcatraz was more than a landmark. It was woven into the backdrop of everyday life, surrounded by stories, legends, and mysteries that fueled my imagination growing up.


Among the inmates who served time at the maximum-security prison were the notorious gangster Al “Scarface” Capone and Robert Stroud, better known as the “Birdman of Alcatraz.” Though more than a dozen escape attempts were made over the years, no inmate is known to have successfully escaped The Rock, as the prison was famously nicknamed. That reputation, combined with the cast of infamous criminals who passed through its cells, helped make Alcatraz one of the most legendary prisons in American history.


Of all the famous inmates, Al "Scarface" Capone fascinated me the most. The gangster who once ruled Chicago with money, violence, and political influence found that none of those things mattered on Alcatraz. Reduced to Prisoner 85, he occupied the same tiny cell as everyone else. As his health declined, the former crime boss spent much of his time reading and playing banjo in the prison band, a far cry from the larger-than-life figure who had once dominated newspaper headlines across America


What made Alcatraz legendary wasn't just the prison itself, it was the bay. Even if a man somehow slipped through the bars, dodged the guards, and made it off the island, he still faced a mile and a half of icy water, treacherous currents, and the cold Pacific tides. The prison walls were only the first barrier. Nature provided the rest.


Over the years, there were 14 known attempts to escape from Alcatraz, involving 36 inmates. The Federal Bureau of Prisons reports that of these would-be escapees, 23 were captured, six were shot and killed during their attempted getaways, two drowned and five went missing and were presumed drowned.


The Clint Eastwood film Escape from Alcatraz was based on one of the most intriguing episodes in the prison's history. In June 1962, inmates Frank Morris and brothers John and Clarence Anglin carried out an elaborate escape, painstakingly enlarging openings in their cell walls with homemade tools and constructing an inflatable raft from stolen raincoats. To delay discovery, they placed remarkably lifelike dummy heads in their beds, then vanished into the darkness beyond the prison walls.


Despite an extensive investigation, the FBI ultimately concluded that the three men most likely perished in the cold, powerful waters of San Francisco Bay. Yet no bodies were ever recovered, and no conclusive evidence has surfaced to prove what became of them. More than six decades later, their fate remains unknown, fueling one of the most enduring mysteries in American criminal history.


My earliest memories of Alcatraz were the Indians that occupied Alcatraz in 1969. A group of Native Americans led by activist Richard Oakes arrived on Alcatraz and claimed the land on behalf of “Indians of All Tribes.” Oakes left Alcatraz following the death of his stepdaughter in 1970, and the remaining occupiers, were removed by order of President Nixon in 1971.


What I didn’t know, Alcatraz was an uninhabited seabird haven when it was explored by the Spanish in 1775. It was named Isla de los Alcatraces, or “Island of the Pelicans.” Fortified by the Spanish, Alcatraz was sold to the United States in 1849. In 1854, it had the distinction of housing the first lighthouse on the coast of California. Beginning in 1859, a U.S. Army detachment was garrisoned there, and from 1868 Alcatraz was used to house military criminals. In 1907, Alcatraz was designated the Pacific Branch of the United States Military Prison.


Personally, I have never been to “The Rock”, I have been around several times on fishing trips on the Scallywag. I have parked behind it while watching the Blue Angles. One time I was with a group of young boys and Mom’s for a birthday party, we were on the ferry that docked at Alcatraz, but the weather was so bad that they would not allow us to get off the boat. That was the closest that I ever got, and I think at this point in my life, just on principle, it will be the closest that I’ll ever get.


For me, Alcatraz will remain that beacon on the bay, that constant lying there just out of reach.


Let me know what you think.

 
 
 

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This Weeks Top Story

Is There a Housing Shortage in the U.S. Right Now? Ivy Zelman Says No

Ivy Zelman says there is no U.S. housing shortage and the market has settled into balance. Byron Lazine unpacks her CNBC interview on the Hot Sheet.


Ivy Zelman, CEO of Zelman & Associates, joined CNBC recently for a discussion on the U.S. housing market. The biggest takeaway from their latest analysis: 


“Our view is that the market is balanced and that there is not a shortage.”


Zelman’s case rests on a handful of data points: spec inventory levels, new home sales trends, a fresh demographic report on population and household growth, and price corrections already showing up in specific markets.  


Is There a Housing Inventory Shortage? 

 

For the better part of the last several years, the housing industry’s explanation for tight supply and firm prices came down to one idea: there aren’t enough homes. That shortage narrative shaped how builders planned communities and how the market thought about risk.


Zelman describes a different reality. Spec inventory, homes built without a buyer under contract, has piled up in some markets. Unsold and unrented units are becoming a bigger part of the conversation than empty pipelines. She stated:


“There’s risks we’ll have oversupply in the next decade if builders continue to have the relative starts they’re seeing right now continue. So I think the rhetoric around a huge housing shortage has quieted down now that we have a lot of empty houses, spec houses that aren’t selling or empty apartments.”


The question is whether builders pull back before oversupply becomes a bigger problem.


There’s a concrete signal pointing in that direction. Builders have been working down the number of homes sitting finished or close to finished without a buyer lined up.


“Good news was inventories are down, spec inventories are down double digits from their peak.”


If builders keep bringing spec levels down over the next few years, Zelman said the market has a real shot at settling into something steadier.


The Rent vs Buy Math Is Pulling Buyers to the Sidelines 

 

Affordability is the biggest lever on housing demand. When owning costs more than renting a comparable home each month, buyers who could go either way tend to sit on the sidelines. Zelman is seeing this in for-sale inventory turnover. 


The reason behind it is basic budgeting math. 


“Definitely very compelling rent versus buy. The difference in monthly payment is roughly $850.”


An $850 monthly difference is a (more than) big enough number to change behavior, and rental market data is showing the impact across the board, with some markets seeing stronger rental growth than others. Zelman explained:


“So I think the rental market is seeing benefits reflective in improving rents, accelerating rents, and the REITs that have



Finish - The Full Story


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