Today I'm bringing both April sales numbers and the number of new pending sales over the past week. One is showing where we've been, while the other is giving clues as to where we are going. Here's what we see:
- Looking back at April
- The number of closed sales in April was 733, down from 954 in April 2019 (down -23.2%).
- About half of the closed sales were contracts signed before 15Mar2020. Some of the decline is due to contracts signed before 15Mar2020 where the deal fell apart.
- Sales prices were steady, however. I'll present that data and more discussion next time.
- Looking ahead with new pending sales
- There was a big jump in new weekly pending sales of +28.1% compared to last week.
This is how I interpret the data:
- Since weekly new pending sales were at their lowest from 25Mar20 - 14Apr20, I expect sales in May 2020 to decline by -30 to -40% compared to May 2019 because of how closings lag signed contracts.
- The resurgence in new pending sales indicates the resiliency of the market and sustained demand for homes. I expect June closed sales to be lower than 2019, but by a more modest amount of -15% to -25%.
- Typically the peak for sales in the real estate market in Cincinnati is in May or June, but I expect that will be delayed until August.
Please contact me if you have any questions at 513-830-8227 or
beppert@pivotrealty.com. I would be happy to discuss this further.
