Jan. 28, 2021
The current state of the COVID-19 pandemic is hard to summarize as I sit here today. Worldwide, COVID-19 cases passed the 100 million mark on Tuesday, although the actual number of cases is likely higher given the lack of testing in some countries. To put this in perspective, global cases reached 25 million in August and doubled to 50 million in November.
 
So, even though the holiday spike in new cases seems to be behind us, the sheer magnitude of infections, combined with worries over new strains being more contagious and potentially more deadly, mean we need to do even more to slow the spread.
 
Record deaths in January
Here in San Diego, county officials reported yesterday that January is already the deadliest month so far, and we still have three days left. So far, 751 lives were lost to COVID-19 in January, compared to 668 in December.
 
This has overwhelmed local funeral homes and hospital morgues, requiring the county to provide refrigerated semitrucks to handle the overflow of about 150 bodies so far. Health officials were prepared for this because they know when people let their guards down, especially around holidays, cases go up, then hospitalizations and then deaths. Knowing it is one thing; seeing it play out is another. It’s just heartbreaking.
 
Following the holidays, case rates are starting to go down again, but as you can see by the charts below, deaths continue to increase even as cases decrease because of the lag time between catching COVID-19 and dying from it. Only a very small percentage of people with COVID-19 die from it, but daily new cases remain in the thousands. We need to bring these numbers down.
I know this is a terrible thing to read, and I don’t want to be discouraging. But I do want to make sure our community understands the numbers and acts accordingly. We know what works to slow the spread:
 
  • Wear face coverings when you leave home.
  • Avoid crowds and maintain at least a 6-foot distance from people outside your own household.
  • Limit gatherings to three households total, gather only outdoors and continue to follow the face covering and 6-foot distance rule.
  • Wash your hands often and don’t touch your face.
  • If you have symptoms or otherwise think you could have been exposed, stay home and away from others.
  • Get vaccinated as soon as it’s your turn.
 
Hospitalizations
Following the downward trend in new cases, we are seeing a corresponding decrease in hospitalizations, which is also good news.
Local case updates
Below are the latest case numbers locally. We’ve gone back to reporting case rates and testing positivity rates instead of ICU capacity.
As a reminder, we are in the purple tier, the most restrictive of the four established by the state. To move up to red and ease restrictions, we need to bring our case rate down to 7 or less per 100,000. We are currently almost 10 times that rate in raw numbers. I say “raw” numbers because the number the state uses to determine eligibility for tiers is adjusted based on how much testing is done in a county. Likewise, the state considers not just the percentage of positive tests in relation to total tests, but a “health equity” metric that considers how well a county is tending to those traditionally underserved by the health care system. I’ve made notes on the county’s chart below so you can see where we are and where we need to be across these measures.
More Carlsbad-specific case information is available on the “North Coastal” dashboard. The county’s website also has cases by ZIP code. Here is a link to all of the charts and graphs prepared by the county yesterday.
 
Update on new variants
In Europe, concerns about new variants are causing new lockdowns. A public health official in the Netherlands basically said there are now two epidemics, the original virus that causes COVID-19, which is decreasing, and the new ones, which are increasing. Great Britain, where this new variant was first detected, had the highest per capita death rate in the world last week.
 
Unfortunately for us, San Diego was not only the first city in California to report the new U.K. variant, we have the highest number of reported cases nationwide.
 
And, we don’t actually know the true number of cases of the new variants because the genomic testing has been limited here. California-based Clear Labs announced yesterday that it has a genome sequencing process that can return results in 24 hours, with minimal hands-on work required, compared to a few days for many other types of sequencing.
 
Health experts continue to believe current vaccines will work against the new variants with the possible exception of the South African one, which could require an additional booster shot. However, all agree more information is needed to know for sure.
 
Mask up and double up
On Tuesday, Dr.  Anthony Fauci said, it "makes common sense" to wear more than one layer of mask. The CDC still recommends leaving the N95 medical grade masks for health care workers. The basic idea is the more layers of protection you have covering your face, the fewer droplets will be spread to those around you and nearby surfaces. The CDC also says masks do provide some protection to the wearer. Before, the focus was solely on protecting those around you. Either way, please mask up and, if your mask is thin, double up.
 
Vaccine distribution update
Yesterday the governor announced a partnership with Blue Shield to be the statewide vaccine administrator, largely replacing the current patchwork of county health departments and private health care providers. Blue Shield won’t be doing all the vaccinations, but they’ll be overseeing and managing the effort overall.

The state also said it would be changing the order in which people would become eligible. The first-in-line groups will remain health care providers, those 65 and up, teachers, farmworkers and first responders. After that, groups had been assigned based on occupations, mostly. Now it will be based primarily on age.

We don’t yet know the details of either of these changes. The county’s scheduled news conference yesterday had to be postponed until this afternoon because of a conflict with the county Board of Supervisors meeting. They’ll hold that today at 2:30 p.m.

Signup for My Turn
San Diego is one of two regions pilot testing a new state website called My Turn. Be sure to sign up so you can be notified directly when you are eligible to make a vaccine appointment. This system will be used statewide as part of the new, centralized approach to vaccine distribution.

New vaccination center
A new vaccine “superstation” will open at Cal State San Marcos on Sunday, Jan. 31, with the capability to vaccinate 5,000 people daily. It’s by appointment only.
 
Health officials still ask that you check first with your own doctor to get vaccinated. But, if your health care provider can’t accommodate you, or if you don’t have a regular health care provider, you can go to a county site. Check this web page, which lists all the county’s vaccination sites. You can make an appointment for the new San Marcos location starting Saturday. The new Oceanside site is up and running now, but has a much smaller capacity, around 500 a day.
 
According to county officials, new appointment times are released around noon daily. Appointments are generally scheduled three days out.
 
More funding for city’s COVID-19 response
On Tuesday the City Council approved an additional $1.5 million be allocated from its economic uncertainty fund to support the city’s costs associated with its COVID-19 response. Thing brings the total to date to $4.5 million for city operations, in addition to the $5 million previously allocated for economic revitalization efforts. These include the business loan programs offered by the city, marketing support for local businesses and the Gift Carlsbad program, which has so far generated $88,000 in economic activity with 87 businesses participating.
 
The City Council set aside $19 million as part of the city’s annual budget that started July 1, 2020, for the economic uncertainty fund, which is used to help the city weather downturns in the economy.
 
Also at Tuesdays’ City Council meeting staff provided an update on the city budget overall. When the City Council approved the fiscal year 2020-21 budget, it asked staff to provide quarterly updates in case adjustments need to be made, given the economic impacts of the pandemic. Here is a link to the presentation slides, and here is a link to a video of that part of the meeting. Please take a look. There is a lot of really interesting information there.
 
Unsurprisingly, hotel tax – money visitors pay per night when they stay in a Carlsbad hotel or short-term vacation rental – has taken the biggest hit. Property tax revenue is actually higher than projections right now. Overall, we are managing spending very carefully, and at this time I do not foresee needing to make changes to day-to-day city operations or to the budget overall. I don’t say this lightly. We always keep a very close eye on city finances, and now more than ever. But at times like this, I feel especially fortunate to work for a city that has done such a good job of saving for a rainy day and strictly following very sound financial practices.
 
In other news…
This Friday the city will relaunch our weekly e-newsletter. This City Manager’s Update sort of took over the regular city e-newsletter last year because, naturally, COVID-19 was by far the most important news to share. But, as I report from time to time here, the work of the city continues, and I want to make sure our community is informed about major projects, services and issues that are not related to COVID-19.
 
In the first issue, we’ll provide an update on:
  • Improvements coming to Monroe Street Pool
  • An update on efforts to improve traffic around Carlsbad
  • The latest park improvements and new parks coming online
  • Public meetings on civilian oversight of the police department
  • A new public records portal where you can easily search for city documents
  • An update on the I-5 widening project

Carlsbad champion
A story caught my eye the other day for two reasons. The first is that we have a two-time Olympic bobsled gold medalist living right here in Carlsbad. Kaillie Humphries just won her second women’s monobob World Cup bobsledding race last Saturday in Koenigssee, Germany.
 
Kaillie won Olympic gold medals for her native Canada in the two-woman bobsled in 2010 and 2014 and a bronze in the event in 2018.
 
The second reason this story stood out for me is this quote from Kaillie:
 
“I don’t focus on times, I just focus on what I can do better,” Humphries said. “…I work on what I can control, and make sure my starts and my runs are as good as they can be. Even if I know I have the lead, I’m going to be focused on what I can do better.”
 
If I could distill my management philosophy and the vision I try to put forward every day to city employees, this about sums it up – minus the bobsleds.
 
I want you to know that I continue to appreciate and share the many emails you send me each week. When I convey your praise to city staff, their faces light up, and they stand just a little taller. They care so much about this community, and not all are in positions where they get to hear directly from those we serve.
 
And, when we fall short of your expectations, I appreciate that feedback just as much. Our entire organization is committed to continual improvement, pandemic or no pandemic.
 
I’ll be back next week with more updates. Please be careful during the upcoming storm. If you need sandbags, stock up now at our local home improvement stores or, if needed, you can visit one of these city locations between 7:30 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. to get a limited number for free.
 
Streets Maintenance
405 Oak Ave.
 
Carlsbad Municipal Water District
5950 El Camino Real
 
Finally, if you’re thinking about plans for the upcoming Super Bowl, please remember where we’ve just been and skip parties this year. It’s too soon and not worth it. Tell your friends you’re sitting this year out, and hope they do too. Right now, that is going to be one of the best ways you can #Care4Carlsbad.

Scott Chadwick
City Manager
City of Carlsbad | Website