The phrase “long dark winter” keeps cropping up lately, referring to the surge in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and abroad, even more ominous because winter hasn’t even technically arrived. The way the virus that causes COVID-19 spreads, an uptick in cases now portends continued significant growth unless we are able to get widespread compliance with the so called “non-pharmaceutical interventions.” As a refresher, these include the basics:
- Cover your face when you leave home
- Limit gatherings and avoid crowds
- Maintain at least a 6-foot distance from people outside your household
- Wash your hands regularly, and don’t touch your face
- Isolate yourself if you have any symptoms of COVID-19 or otherwise believe you have been exposed
These things work best if everyone cooperates. Absent this, the next tool in the public health toolbox is to shut down parts of our society that are known to contribute to COVID-19 cases, including indoor locations where people tend to come into close contact with one another.
Of course, fatigue with all the rules and shutdowns is probably a main reason we don’t see full compliance with health precautions. So, here we are in a Catch-22.
Non-pharmaceutical interventions are not unique to COVID. They have long been an accepted strategy for containing contagious diseases. You can read some of the details, including research, on the CDC’s website. These measures have the power to decrease spread and get us opened back up.
Purple rules
As a reminder, here is what our new purple designation means:
- Restaurants may only operate outdoors
- Places of worship may only operate outdoors
- Indoor gyms must close
- Indoor museums must close
- Maximum occupancy of indoor retail falls from 50% to 25%
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Hairstylists, massage therapists and other personal care businesses can remain open in the purple tier, with precautions in place.
In terms of city operations, our Cannon Art Gallery will have to close, as well the historic buildings at Leo Carrillo Ranch Historic Park. Gyms will no longer be open for pickleball and basketball.
Timing
The purple tier went into effect yesterday, but the state allows three days to comply. So, by Saturday, the new rules will be fully in effect. We must remain in the purple tier for at least three weeks. To get out, our metrics must meet the red tier threshold for two consecutive weeks. Case rates seem to still be on the upswing, so we’ve got our work cut out for us.
Schools
Schools already opened while in red tier are not required to close. However, if a school or district had not already reopened for in-person instruction while in the red tier and is then moved to purple, it may not reopen those schools until the county moves back to the red tier and remains in the red tier for 14 days.
Youth sports
The state mentioned youth sports again on Tuesday. Unfortunately, there was nothing new. Officials are still saying that guidance is “coming soon.” I know many of our local families are eager to get their kids back into sports programs, and I promise to let you know just as soon as we hear any updates.
It’s not us, it’s them?
I’d like to address the fact that Carlsbad has consistently had among the lowest cases per capita in the county. We have been tracking this manually since the beginning of the pandemic (this is the large blue graph I usually share on Tuesdays), but now the state said it would start sharing information broken down by city, starting today. It’s not available yet, but my best guess is that it will show up on this page.
I can see how our residents and businesses would find the latest restrictions frustrating given our relatively good numbers. The thing to keep in mind is that case numbers reflect where people with COVID-19 live, not where they were infected. Anywhere people gather, especially indoors, is a high risk for spread. Another reality is that viruses do not respect borders. As long as COVID-19 is widespread in our county, we are at risk. Carlsbad numbers, while lower than most, are still on the upswing.
So, corny as it sounds, we are all in this together. Please keep doing the right thing and encourage your friends and family to do the same.
Why is winter worse?
A story out today explains why the risk of COVID-19 will be greater in the winter. According to the article, “Studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 has more stamina in cold conditions than in warm ones. When exposed to temperatures of 80 degrees Fahrenheit and 65% relative humidity, more than half of viral samples break down in just 90 minutes. But when the temperature drops to around 50 degrees, with 40% relative humidity, the virus can survive on surfaces for more than 24 hours.”
Human behavior is also a factor. When it gets colder, people move indoors. The upcoming holidays are a factor, with multiple generations of family members gathering, exposing older more vulnerable populations.
Some good news
I know this is all very grim. On the bright side, as doctors learn more about COVID-19, treatments are improving. That means that you have a better chance of recovering today than you would have eight months ago.
Also, even as fatigue sets in, public health precautions are becoming more routine and accepted. At first it might have been hard to remember to bring your mask with you when you left home, if you even had a mask. By now, you can buy a simple face covering at most stores, and you’ll be greeted at restaurants, shops and other buildings with large signs reminding you to cover your face before entering. Floor markers showing the proper physical distance are also commonplace.
Case data details
The county didn’t issue updated numbers yesterday due to the Veterans Day holiday. Here are the latest, reported on Nov. 10.
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- COVID-19 rate by sex, ethnicity and age
- Hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths
The county also tracks:
Shop Local, Eat Local
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Given the new restrictions, we are asking our community to do everything they can to support local businesses. Gift Carlsbad is a website where you can buy give cards to local businesses. Depending on the amount of the card, additional “bonus” funds will be added. This not only helps your dollars go further, it gives a much-needed boost to our local merchants.
And, although restaurants have to close indoor dining, most still have curbside takeout available. If you can, please consider eating in just as you might have eaten out, by picking up your meals and enjoying them at home.
Your feedback wanted
Carlsbad has long been known for its engaged citizenry. That doesn’t have to stop just because we can’t hold public meetings. We have three opportunities to weigh in on issues right from your computer or phone:
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Sustainable Mobility Plan - As the city grows its network of transportation options, we want to make sure we’re providing choices that improve commuting, recreation and getting around the city overall. Public input is open until Nov. 27.
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Age-Friendly Carlsbad - For those ages 45 and older, what would make Carlsbad an age-friendly city? In partnership with the American Association of Retired Persons’ Network of Age-Friendly States and Communities and the San Diego Foundation, the city is creating its first Age-Friendly action plan. Public input is open until Nov. 30.
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New City Hall and Civic Center - Even though most city work is happening remotely due to the COVID-19 pandemic, city employees will eventually return to their offices to serve the public in person. That’s why the city is continuing to plan a new consolidated city hall with opportunity to create shared indoor/outdoor community spaces. Give us feedback about the four city-owned locations that are under consideration. Public input is open until Dec. 10.
Healthy Holiday campaign
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The city has kicked off our “Healthy Holidays” campaign on social media, featuring tips and reminders for how to celebrate Thanksgiving as safely has possible. The full list of tips is below:
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Have a small outdoor meal with family and friends who live nearby.
- Limit the number of guests.
- Have conversations with guests ahead of time to set expectations for celebrating together.
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Clean and disinfect frequently touched surfaces and items between use.
- If celebrating indoors, make sure to open windows.
- Limit the number of people in food preparation areas.
- Have guests bring their own food and drink.
- If sharing food, have one person serve food and use single-use options, like plastic utensils.
- Bring your own food, drinks, plates, cups, and utensils.
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Wear a mask, and safely store your mask while eating and drinking.
- Avoid going in and out of the areas where food is being prepared or handled, such as in the kitchen.
- Use single-use options, like salad dressing and condiment packets and disposable food containers, plates and utensils.
Travel is risky during the pandemic so this would be a good year to stick close to home. If you do decide to travel, the CDC has several guidelines to make it safer for you and your families.
How about an alpaca selfie?
Today’s Union-Tribune had a wonderful story about the Helen Woodward Animal Center getting creative in its efforts to reach out to those most isolated during the pandemic, our seniors living in assisted living or skilled nursing facilities.
They call it “thinking outside the pen.” The first program involved taking the animal center’s alpacas, Kronk and Kuzco, to a nursing home and placing them outside the window in the dining room and resident rooms. They’d place sheets with information about the animals up to the windows and had a microphone so animal keepers could tell residents about their furry friends. Some residents were so excited, they were seen backing up their wheelchairs to the window to snap selfies with the animals.
The group from Helen Woodward used Zoom and iPads to show off the alpacas to those living on upper floors. Zoom is also being used to stream animals directly from the center grounds. Some animals, including miniature horses, donkeys and goats, have been trained to stick their heads up close to the camera so those watching can get an up-close look.
One of the therapists involved in the project was in tears following a recent Zoom call, noting that she hadn’t seen smiles on the residents’ faces in weeks, and they haven’t left their rooms.
In addition to Carlsbad, Santee, Poway and throughout the city of San Diego, the animal shelter has responded to requests from homes for children with special needs as far away as New York and Cleveland. You can read the full story here (and see photos!).
Let’s all try to think of creative new ways to help out those in our community who may need extra support. A simple check-in with a friend or neighbor could mean the world to someone feeling isolated. This is the time for our community to band together like never before.
I’ll be back Tuesday with more updates. If you know someone who would like to get these updates via email, here is a link to sign up.
Scott Chadwick
City Manager
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