There’s a lot to catch up on since last Thursday, plus I am sending today’s COVID-19 update to a larger group than normal. That’s because yesterday state and county health officials delivered an important message that I want to share with our community.
I will get to the details, but to sum it up:
- COVID-19 is spreading more than ever before. We all need to do more. We cannot become complacent. The fatigue is real, but health officials are urging us all to rally a couple more months to turn things around. Effective vaccines are on the horizon. In the meantime, we know what works: masks, physical distance, avoiding crowds, keeping gatherings small and outdoors (three households max), washing hands, not touching our faces, staying home if we have any COVID-19 symptoms.
- We are in this together. As a community, it’s more important than ever that we take care of each other, keep those most vulnerable to COVID-19 safe, and help out our local businesses and their employees.
Yesterday’s announcements
In separate news conferences, the state and county sounded the same warning:
- Cases are at record breaking levels here in San Diego and across the state and nation
- We are entering the holiday season when people tend to gather
- The weather will soon be keeping more people indoors
Some of the latest statistics cited included:
- Daily cases in the state doubled in the past 10 days
- COVID-19 hospitalizations statewide have increased nearly 50% in past 14 days
- In San Diego County over the last seven days, the number of daily COVID-19 cases reached a record 1,087 on Nov. 14 followed by 833 cases on Nov. 15, the second highest single day recorded
- More than 600 cases have been reported in San Diego County every single day in the past week. In the last seven days, 5,031 cases were reported, compared to 3,161 the previous week.
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This data has caused the state to “pull the emergency brake” on its blueprint for reopening and our own county health officer to plead:
“Understand that you are taking action not because I ask you, but because the different entities that comprise the vital fabric of our community need you to take action. It’s that simple,” Dr. Wilma Wooten said. “COVID-19 stops with you. Please do your part to ensure we slow the spread of COVID-19. We cannot afford to waste another minute.”
What does “emergency brake” mean?
When the state rolled out its blueprint for safer economy in August, in addition to the four colored tiers, it featured built in flexibility to strengthen or relax restrictions based on data. Yesterday, the state announced the first big change to how the blueprint will be implemented:
Tier assignments
Instead of announcing changes in county tier status weekly on Tuesdays, the state will make changes as needed, as it did yesterday by moving even more counties to the lowest tier, called purple. The governor said another change in county status could come on Friday. To put the recent increase in spread in perspective, three weeks ago nine counties were in the purple tier. As of yesterday, 41 are.
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Move back multiple tiers
Counties may be moved back more than one tier if state health officials determine that the data support the more intensive intervention. Key considerations will include the rate of increase in new cases and/or test positivity, recent data, public health capacity and other epidemiological factors.
Can move after one week
Instead of missing a tier threshold for two consecutive weeks, counties can get moved after just one week. As a reminder, the two measures are cases per 100,000 in population and percentage of positive tests.
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Changes must happen the following day
When we recently moved to the purple tier we had three days to make the change. Now counties will only have one day.
The governor ended by saying additional restrictions could be added to the tiers as people move indoors for the winter. He also said the state was considering a curfew for certain types of businesses and activities, but no decisions have been made on that.
What’s allowed now
Over the weekend San Diego County officially moved to the purple tier. Here is a comparison chart showing what’s allowed in which tier, and you can look up rules by entering San Diego in the search box on the state’s website. We have also updated our list of city services.
New map shows city and ZIP data
We have been tracking our own case data since the beginning, and now the county has made a new map available showing the case numbers by all cities plus by ZIP code. It will be updated weekly and released on Thursdays. The map shows the same seven-day window used by the state to make adjustments to a county’s tier status.
How Carlsbad compares
As the county as a whole reported its single largest number of COVID-19 cases in a single day, Carlsbad was singled out as the only city of 100,000 or higher in population whose case rate remains in the red tier. We should all be very proud of this.
But I don’t want this to create a sense of complacency. Our case numbers, while lower than most, are still headed in the wrong direction. The graph below shows the progression of cases in Carlsbad since the beginning of the pandemic.
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Travel advisory
Another development since my last update is the travel advisory issued by the state. You can read the details here. This is not a travel ban. Instead, it is set of guidelines people should follow, starting with foregoing non-essential travel altogether. If you decide to travel for non-essential reasons, you should observe a 14-day quarantine period when you return to California.
Case data details
Here are the latest numbers for Carlsbad and the county:
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- COVID-19 rate by sex, ethnicity and age
- Hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths
The county also tracks:
New county guidance for Thanksgiving
Recommended
- Remote events with family and friends, such as a virtual Thanksgiving dinner, sharing recipes, a virtual turkey trot, or online game.
- Televised or live streaming events at home with members of your own household.
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Outdoor orchards, food markets, and seasonal craft fairs where state guidance is followed and people use hand sanitizer, wear face coverings, and maintain a 6-foot distance from others.
- Get your flu vaccine to protect yourself and minimize complications from the flu or COVID-19 viruses.
Not recommended
- According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention travel considerations, traveling increases the chance of getting and spreading COVID-19. Staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others.
- In-person sports events, parades and movies where more than 3 households are present.
- In-person Black Friday or other shopping events where there may be large gatherings of people.
Not allowed
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Under California Department of Public Health guidance, in-person events or parties with more than three households are not permitted, even if outdoors. Remember, the smaller the number of people, the safer.
- Carnivals, festivals and live entertainment are not allowed because close interactions increase the risk of infection.
- In-person turkey trots or similar events are not allowed because participants need to walk or run close together, and it is difficult to maintain physical distancing.
Safer Alternatives
Many traditional Thanksgiving activities can be high-risk for spreading viruses. There are safer, alternative ways to celebrate that include the following:
- Consider virtual connections through video calls or video-sharing, such as sending a pre-made Thanksgiving dinner or ingredients through online food delivery services and eat together virtually.
- Shop online rather than in person for Black Friday deals.
- Donate food to charities at drive-through mobile pantries, or through an online food bank fundraiser.
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Celebrate Green Friday by visiting a local park or preserve for family-friendly activities.
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Visit pick-your-own produce farms that follow California Department of Food and Agriculture guidelines.
Festival of Lanterns: A Night of Light & Reflection
Community members gave thanks and shared messages of hope and love during our inaugural virtual Festival of Lanterns event, A Night of Light and Reflection, at Alga Norte Aquatic Center. On Saturday, Nov. 14, in honor of National Gratitude Month, illuminated lanterns were decorated with thoughtful messages and wishes and floated in the Alga Norte pool in a beautiful ceremony featuring a harpist, singers, and story and poetry readings. The virtual event was shown on the city’s Facebook page. Thank you to all who participated by purchasing and decorating a lantern.
If you didn’t catch the video over the weekend, I highly encourage you to watch it here. It’s an excellent reminder of what we all share – hope, compassion, humor and caring for one another as a community.
If you made it all the way to the end and aren’t already on our email list for the twice a week updates, you can sign up here.
For the regular crowd, thank you for following, and I’ll be back on Thursday.
Scott Chadwick
City Manager
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