The country, state, county and our own city continue to set new COVID-19 records. I realize that it’s easy to become numb to all the data, forgetting that these numbers represent human beings with lives, who have things to contribute to the world and people who love them. My goal in sharing COVID-19 data is to provide context to the numbers so our community better understands where things are today, where they may be heading and how to help slow the spread.
U.S. cases
- The U.S. reported 2,777 coronavirus-related deaths yesterday, surpassing the previous high of 2,752 deaths reported April 15.
- Nearly 205,000 new cases of COVID-19 were reported yesterday, just one month after the country reported 100,000 in a single day for the first time.
- Hospitalizations also topped 100,000 yesterday, the highest number to date.
I don’t normally highlight national numbers, preferring to focus on how things are going closer to home. What’s changed since the spring when numbers were spiking is the geographic distribution. Instead of being concentrated in just a few cities – the images of New York City come to mind – COVID-19 infections are up throughout the country. This means health care workers are not available to come to distant hot spots to provide relief. Supplies cannot be redistributed because they’re needed everywhere. Here is today’s case map from the Johns Hopkins website.
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San Diego County
The County of San Diego public health officer shared the following updates yesterday:
- Over the past seven days, the region has averaged more than 1,300 COVID-19 cases each day. The target to contain spread is no more than 200 cases.
- 739 San Diegans were hospitalized for COVID-19 as of Dec. 1, compared to 288 on Nov. 1, an increase of 451 in the hospitalized population, or 156.6%. This figure is likely to go up since hospitalizations lag behind confirmation of cases.
- The number of people with COVID-19 in intensive care units has also increased. While there were 93 San Diegans in the ICU at the beginning of November, the figure has more than doubled in the past 30 days to 209.
Carlsbad
We are also seeing record-breaking increases in COVID-19 cases in Carlsbad. We currently have 216 active cases, the highest to date.
Thanksgiving effect
One of the reasons for the heightened concern about the latest case numbers is that based on average incubation periods and timing for the onset of symptoms, we are not yet seeing cases that resulted from exposures that occurred during the Thanksgiving holiday. Those could start to show up in hospitalization numbers in the next week or so, followed by ICU admissions.
Local hospital and ICU capacity
The biggest concern is having enough capacity in the health care system to handle a new influx of cases. Keep in mind, only about 5.6% of COVID-19 patients in San Diego County have required hospitalization, according to information released yesterday from the county health officer. Just a little over 1% (1.2%) required ICU treatment. You can see how these numbers are progressing in the charts below:
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Quarantine guideline change
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has changed its guidelines for how long someone should be in quarantine following exposure to COVID-19. The recommended time remains 14 days, but the CDC says reducing this timeframe will increase compliance.
Quarantines are recommended when:
- You were within 6 feet of someone who has COVID-19 for a total of 15 minutes or more
- You provided care at home to someone who is sick with COVID-19
- You had direct physical contact with the person (hugged or kissed them)
- You shared eating or drinking utensils
- They sneezed, coughed or somehow got respiratory droplets on you
CDC now says people without symptoms can end their quarantine:
- On day 10 without testing
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On day 7 after receiving a negative test result (the negative test must be conducted within 48 hours of planned quarantine discontinuation)
The CDC notes that local public health authorities make the final decisions about how long quarantine should last in the communities they serve, based on local conditions and needs.
Vaccine distribution update
Yesterday the County of San Diego gave an update on vaccine distribution plans. The state anticipates getting approximately 327,000 doses in mid‐December during the first distribution round. Of those, the county expects to get about 28,000 doses. This is enough for 14,000 people since everyone needs two vaccines.
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Distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will be done in phases, with the first doses going to health care personnel and nursing home residents and employees. The initial distribution will not be sufficient to vaccinate all eligible health care workers.
The state anticipates the second round of vaccines to follow about three weeks after the first round.
Supreme Court decision about religious gatherings
The Supreme Court issued a ruling last week in Roman Catholic Diocese of Brooklyn v. Cuomo, which stopped the enforcement of certain health and safety restrictions on indoor worship services in the state of New York. Those restrictions capped attendance to 10 or 25 persons in designated areas.
For now, the Supreme Court’s ruling does not affect California’s health and safety restrictions on worship services. In part, this is because last May the Supreme Court considered a similar request to halt further legal proceedings on California’s restrictions on indoor worship services and declined to do so. Even though both states put limits on these types of gatherings, the actual restrictions differ in the eyes of the courts.
The Supreme Court may choose to consider California’s restrictions anew, but for now they remain in place.
Case numbers
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- COVID-19 rate by sex, ethnicity and age
- Hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths
The county also tracks:
Fire danger
Right on cue for this time of year, we are experiencing Santa Ana conditions today through Saturday. The most severe winds are expected to the east of us, but we should still be very careful to not do anything that could cause a spark. When it is dry and windy, the smallest fire can quickly spread.
If you are not already signed up for Alert San Diego, please do so today. This is the region’s emergency notification system that will send you a message and call your mobile phone if you need to evacuate (or any other emergency alert affecting your neighborhood). Landlines are automatically registered, but you need to manually add your email and mobile phone.
Electical outages
You may have read about planned electrical outages, which are becoming a part of red flag conditions. These are also not scheduled to affect Carlsbad at this time, however an unplanned outage happened last night in southern Carlsbad. This site is a great resource to find out about electrical outages – I suggest saving the link on your phone since during an outage your home computer won’t have an internet connection. Or just search for “SDG&E outage map” and it should come up.
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More news coming today
At Monday’s news conference the governor hinted that additional restrictions could be coming, and a briefing has been scheduled today on the topic. We don’t know any details yet, but I will send an update later today if significant changes are announced.
Today I’m ending not with a feel-good story, but a plea: Please continue to do everything you can to slow the spread of COVID-19 in our community:
- If you’re sick, stay home and isolate yourself from others.
- If you need to be in public, you must use a face covering if you are close to people outside your household. The coverings help prevent asymptomatic carriers of the virus from spreading it.
- Maintain physical distance from others.
- Avoid crowded places to decrease your risk of exposure.
- Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, throw it away and wash your hands.
- Wash your hands properly and regularly use a hand sanitizer.
Vaccines are not going to help us with the immediate concerns about health care capacity. Only our actions have the power to do that. Thank you for staying the course. And thank you for continuing to #Care4Carlsbad.
Scott Chadwick
City Manager
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