Aug. 13, 2020
Today Carlsbad is reporting six new COVID-19 cases for a new total of 531. Of those, we estimate 45 are currently active. This is a big decrease from my last update, partly because the CDC has put out new guidance on how long someone is thought to be contagious, from 14 days to 10 days.
 
The county doesn’t report on “active” cases. This is something we calculate based on the date someone’s test is reported positive. The number is important because it tells us how many people in the community are currently contagious, and that speaks to the risk of spread – sort of.
 
Like all the numbers we report, active cases don’t tell the whole story. Someone could be contagious and have no symptoms. Someone could have COVID-19 and not have been tested. Someone with COVID-19 who lives in one of our neighboring cities – and therefore is not included in the Carlsbad case numbers – could run errands in Carlsbad.
 
This is why the best advice to stay safe and slow the spread is still to assume everyone you see could be contagious and act accordingly. I know that might sound extreme, but if everyone did this, we could get the numbers down to where businesses could reopen, schools could once again hold classes in person and other important activities could resume.
 
We are getting there
I am happy to report that our collective actions are starting to finally make a difference. There is a lag time between our individual behaviors and when new cases are reported. Then there is a further lag time between when new cases are reported and when people experience serious complications.
 
Yesterday the county reported fewer than 100 cases per 100,000 in population (the number is either 98.4 or 94.1, depending on if you’re looking at county data or state data – yes, this is confusing). With this, the county is no longer exceeding any of the state’s six triggers that put us on the watch list.
 
State triggers
As a reminder, the state is monitoring six areas to determine if a county needs to be on its “watch list.” Being on the watch list means counties face more health restrictions. We’ve been on the watch list since July 3. The triggers, which are explained on the state’s website, include:
 
  • Number of tests conducted per day
  • Number of cases per 100,000 population
  • Testing positivity rate (percentage of positive tests based on total tests conducted)
  • Increase in hospitalizations
  • ICU bed availability
  • Ventilator availability

Counties may have additional metrics. For example, San Diego County is also monitoring community outbreaks and the ability to quickly investigate new cases and do contact tracing. You can see the full list of county triggers on this dashboard.
 
Not so fast
Meeting all the state’s metrics is great news and proof that what are doing is making a difference. But, it doesn’t mean we are automatically off the monitoring list. We need to continue to meet all of the requirements for three days in a row, and then it will be possible to get off the list, once the state and county make that determination. Due to glitches in the state’s testing data, the state is not making any changes to the county monitoring list right now, but that will hopefully change soon.

What can reopen when we’re off the list?
When San Diego County is off the monitoring list, county health officials can give the green light for the following to reopen indoor operations:
  • Gyms and fitness centers
  • Places of worship and cultural ceremonies, like weddings and funerals
  • Offices for non-critical infrastructure sectors
  • Personal care services, like nail salons and body waxing
  • Hair salons and barbershops
  • Shopping malls

Unfortunately, the following indoor operations will remain closed because the state’s restrictions apply to all counties, not just those on the monitoring list:

  • Dine-in restaurants
  • Wineries and tasting rooms
  • Movie theaters 
  • Family entertainment centers (for example: bowling alleys, miniature golf, batting cages and arcades)
  • Zoos and museums
  • Cardrooms
  • Bars, brewpubs, breweries, and pubs, unless they are offering sit-down, outdoor dining. Alcohol can only be sold in the same transaction as a meal.

Either way, things appear to be headed in the right direction, so please keep up the good work. We will get through this if everyone follows the health precautions needed to slow the spread.
 
Other case data
  • The county has reported 418 new cases since my update on Tuesday for a new total of 33,393.
  • The 14-day average positivity rate (positive cases compared to total tests) is down again at 4.7%. This is good. The target is under 8 %.
  • Six new COVID-19 deaths were reported yesterday for a new total of 608. This includes five women and one man between the ages of 66 to 96. All had underlying medical conditions. Please join me in keeping their families and other loved ones in your thoughts as you go about your days.
  • The county is now reporting 26 community outbreaks in the past seven days. The target is no more than seven in seven days.
 
Here is a link to all the charts and graphs released by the county yesterday.
 
Later gaiter?
A new study might be causing some of you to toss your neck gaiters (I tend to favor the gaiter myself). But, hold on.
 
Here’s what’s going on. Researchers at Duke University figured out an easy, low tech way to see how effective various types of face coverings are. Here’s a link to the article.
 
Basically, they put someone in a dark room wearing a mask of some sort, had the person talk and illuminated the area with a green laser light. This makes droplets coming from the person’s mouth appear green, like a mini meteor shower. Someone takes a video of the experiment on a cell phone and then counts the number of droplets. Here’s a cool video that shows the experiment in action.
Using a scale starting at 100, which is how many droplets come from a person without a face covering, researchers gave each type of face covering a score.
 
Unsurprisingly, a properly fitted N95 mask transmitted less than 0.1 percent of particles, while neck gaiters actually appeared to spew more droplets than someone wearing no face covering. Researchers speculated that the material used on the neck gaiter sheared larger droplets into smaller ones.
 
The neck gaiter industry (apparently this is now a thing) was quick to point out that neck gaiters come in many different types of materials and thicknesses and can be folded for added protection. The researchers stressed that the purpose of their article was to show a way to easily test face coverings not necessarily to provide a definitive ranking of their effectiveness.
 
They did, however, provide a ranking of different types of coverings, which you can see in the article. Three-ply cloth masks were better than two-ply and one-ply. Cotton performed better than other fabrics.
 
Perhaps the biggest take away is that covering your face does reduce droplets that could infect other people. We all emit droplets when we cough, sneeze, talk, yell, sing and breathe. The fewer droplets we emit, the fewer people we will infect. The fewer people that get infected, the slower the spread. So please continue to mask up, layer up and keep your distance from others.
 
Masks vs “coverings”
On a side note, early on in the pandemic questions came up about N95 masks vs surgical masks vs cloth face coverings. At the time, I asked our fire chief about it. First of all, we want to leave medical grade masks to those most at risk. Some people have N95 masks in their emergency kits already. If so, it’s fine to use them, but keep in mind they might not provide the level of protection you think they do. That’s because they must fit perfectly.
 
The Fire Department does fit tests for all its personnel where they basically put on their N95 mask and then are exposed to different smells. If the person wearing the mask can detect the smell, the mask doesn’t fit well enough. Most likely, your off-the-shelf N95 masks won’t fit you perfectly either. It will provide some protection but not at the level you expect.
 
Economic relief
Governor Gavin Newsom devoted yesterday’s news conference to the topic of economic relief. For every day the shutdowns continue, businesses are facing more and more hardships. We are feeling this here in Carlsbad too.

You can read about the latest state efforts to “stabilize California’s economy, businesses and workforce, aid workers and employers, and create equitable growth across the state’s economy.” Next Tuesday we’ll be providing our latest COVID-19 response update to the Carlsbad City Council, including proposals from our Economic Revitalization Ad Hoc Subcommittee. 

In addition to our local partnerships and loan programs, our staff has streamlined the permit process for businesses to move outdoors. We have currently approved more than 50 free and low costs permits, and 10 more are in the works.

In the meantime, federal stimulus talks continue, and the president has signed executive orders meant to help provide economic relief.

I’ll report out on this in greater detail next week.

As we head into what is projected to be a warmer than normal weekend, please consider visiting our local businesses and take advantage of their new outdoor operations. They need our support more than ever.

When you do head out, please don’t just follow, but be a model for the health precautions needed to slow the spread. Even if you’re 6 feet from others, consider wearing your mask anyways or at least have it on display around your neck.

Our community has always been known as a friendly place where people care about each other. The way to show that now is by covering your face, avoiding gatherings, especially indoors, and giving people plenty of room in stores, on sidewalks and other places.

Our actions are having an effect. Please keep up the good work.
 
You can follow any breaking news between now and my next update on the city’s website and social media.


Scott Chadwick
City Manager
City of Carlsbad | Website