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September 16, 2021
Dry Future for the Southwest, But Reducing Greenhouse Gases Can Still Help


NIDIS-sponsored study finds the risk of extreme megadroughts and severe single-year droughts will increase in the Southwest with rising temperatures, but reducing greenhouse gases can decrease their severity.
For the past two decades, the southwestern United States has been desiccated by one of the most severe long-term droughts—or ‘megadroughts’—of the last 1,200 years. And now, scientists say the risk of similar extreme megadroughts and severe single-year droughts will increase in the future as Earth’s temperature continues to rise, according to a new study in Earth’s Future sponsored by NOAA’s Climate Program Office and NIDIS, and led by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. More specifically, the study showed that, regardless of future levels of greenhouse gas emissions, the warming climate has locked in an elevated risk of intense megadroughts for the region. However, mitigation measures—efforts to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—can and do reduce the risk of intense single-year droughts and the severity of megadroughts.
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News & Updates
New Framework Describes How Diverse Stakeholders Make Drought Management Decisions

A recent study synthesizes drought case studies across the western U.S. to create a framework describing how diverse actors, from private landowners to federal resource managers, make complex decisions about preparing for and responding to drought. The paper uses ten place-based research studies across the western United States to build this framework. This work is based on discussions at drought workshops held at the USGS Fort Collins Science Center in 2016 and 2018 supported by the North Central and National Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs). Learn more >
Sun shining brightly in the sky - photo credit Ed Connor
Summer 2021 Neck and Neck with Dust Bowl Summer for Hottest on Record

The average temperature during meteorological summer for the contiguous U.S. was 74.0 degrees F, 2.6 degrees above average. This technically exceeds the record heat of the 1936 Dust Bowl Summer, but the difference is extremely small (less than 0.01 of a degree F). A record 18.4% of the contiguous U.S. experienced record-warm temperatures. California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Utah each reported their warmest summer on record, as 16 other states had a top-five warmest summer on record.
Co-Occurrence of California Drought and Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwaves Under Climate Change

Motivated by the uncommon yet highly impactful co-occurrence of California drought and a northeast Pacific (NEP) marine heatwave (MHW) during 2013–2016, this research showed that long-term trends due to anthropogenic climate change will dramatically increase the co-occurrence of extreme dry California and warm northeast Pacific conditions. The study was supported by NOAA's Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program.
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NIDIS Interactive Map: Hydropower and Drought
NIDIS recently launched interactive economic sector maps on drought.gov that show sector-specific information alongside key drought and climate indicators, providing vital information for private and public sector decision makers to monitor, plan for, and mitigate the impacts of drought. This map shows the many western hydro plants (blue dots) in drought, particularly in Extreme (D3)/Exceptional (D4) Drought. Low reservoir levels during drought can reduce energy generated by hydroelectric dams or even force them offline.
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About NIDIS
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) was authorized by Congress in 2006 (Public Law 109-430) with an interagency mandate to develop and provide a national drought early warning information system, by coordinating and integrating drought research, and building upon existing federal, tribal, state, and local partnerships.