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December 9, 2022

Maine is just over halfway to its 2025 climate plan goal of weatherizing 17,500 homes, a process that involves energy assessments like the "blower door test" seen here. Credit: Maine Blower Door Test

Visualizing Maine's progress toward its climate goals

By Annie Ropeik

Time flies when you're having a climate crisis. Late last week, the Maine Climate Council marked two years of "Maine Won't Wait," announcing a new round of community climate adaptation grants as they did so.

Officials also touted a new dashboard where folks can explore a map of projects, initiatives and installations the state has pursued toward its climate plan, and click around to see data about progress toward our climate goals. Never one to pass up a chance to crunch numbers, I thought we'd spend this week breaking down some of those numbers and assessing the long road ahead.

Maine's topline goal is to be carbon-neutral by 2045, with stops along the way: "Reduce gross emissions 10% by 2020, 45% by 2030, and 80% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels," according to the Climate Council website. We now have data on our emissions through the end of 2019, and we've more than achieved that first goal for 2020.

Maine's greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were about 25% lower than in 1990, according to the latest state data. This is "primarily due to decreased use of fossil fuels," the state said in a July report, both by businesses and individuals -- Maine's population increased 9% between 1990 and 2019, while emissions per capita dropped by nearly a third.

Overall, the state projects that Maine will meet its 2045 goal, though it notes that emissions will have to begin to decline a little faster to get there on time. Right now, officials say Maine is 75% of the way to carbon neutrality, meaning that 75% of our emissions are "offset by sequestration in the environment."

The fine print (again, in that July report) shows this is defined largely by how much carbon is stored in Maine's abundant forests, compared to how much we actually emit. You can see how our high concentration of forestlands puts us at an advantage by this definition.

Carbon neutrality, or the idea of "net zero emissions," is in fact something of a controversial buzzword among climate wonks. "In principle, the idea of net-zero offers countries and companies [and states] flexibility in meeting climate goals. But in practice, critics say that net-zero pledges delay meaningful reductions in greenhouse gases and provide cover to those unwilling to take immediate steps to limit emissions," wrote Umair Irfan for Vox last year, with international net-zero pledges in the spotlight at that year's "COP" gathering.

The potential for a government or corporation's net-zero pledge to amount to "greenwashing" depends on how that pledge is defined and approached, argued a paper from researchers at the University of Oxford in December 2021. A meaningful net zero goal, they said, prioritizes comprehensive emissions cuts and an equitable climate transition, among other things.

Maine is still developing the data and approaches it uses to quantify the "carbon sink" side of its plan, so stay tuned on that. But on the "carbon emissions" side, we have many detailed goals we can look to as examples of the kind of "front-loaded" approach the Oxford paper supports -- one where policy efforts move to rapidly cut emissions without waiting to meet those carbon sinks in the middle.

Bottom line: The fuzziness of "net zero" is all the more reason to scrutinize specific targets like electric heat pump installations, which Maine has prioritized primarily to offset its top-in-the-nation reliance on heating oil -- a dependence that underlies the fact that our residential sector remains an unusually large source of emissions relative to most states, data shows.

After playing with the state's new dashboard for tracking targets like this, I still felt in need of a unified, clear visual. I put the state data into a spreadsheet and converted our progress into percentages, which are a simpler way to see areas where we're doing well and others where we're behind:

You can see a clear outlier: Our progress on electric vehicle adoption has barely begun, but that's expected to change in the coming years -- a big "if" -- as new, cheaper models roll out and chargers become more widely available.

Note that the state offers some interesting maps at that link and in other sections of the new dashboard (scroll down on each goal's page). One shows how Aroostook County has fewer than 100 EVs registered, whereas EV adoption is more concentrated in Southern and coastal Maine, where chargers are relatively more prevalent and median household incomes are higher.

You can also see, in my percentages above, that we're doing great on heat pump installations overall, but not so good on making sure those heat pumps benefit low-income households. This is all a form of climate justice, or lack thereof.

"We want to make sure low and moderate-income houses are contributing as well," Efficiency Maine director Michael Stoddard told WMTW. "They don't have as much disposable income so we’re changing these [rebate] programs to make it easier for those households to access it."

It's important that Maine has goals like this at all, as those Oxford researchers noted in their paper on what makes a good net-zero goal. This particular metric suggests there is more work to do (and more scrutiny needed by folks like me!) to ensure the state's signature heat pump push is rolled out equitably.

To that end, you can click to learn about Efficiency Maine's many rebates for heat pumps, EVs, weatherization and more -- including up to $100 for anyone, even renters, to buy DIY winter prep materials like window wraps, pipe insulation and caulk, through Dec. 31.

Note: Kate Cough and I are alternating Climate Monitor duties for at least the rest of this month, so you'll hear from her next week. Happy to have her back!

In other Maine news:

Heating aid fails:

The State Senate failed to pass Mills' emergency plan to send Mainers relief checks to offset high winter heating prices. It does have enough support to pass in the regular session, but wouldn't take effect until later next year.

Energy efficiency:

Maine was the most-improved state on energy efficiency efforts in a key industry report.

Even more climate progress:

A new study from the Union of Concerned Scientists puts Maine as a leader on climate action among New England states.

Weatherization: 

Contractors who retrofit homes with new insulation and other energy-saving measures are seeing high demand due to generous rebates and high oil prices.

Aquaculture:

Jonesport conditionally approved the controversial Kingfish project, which would grow fish in a factory on land.

More aquaculture:

A nonprofit opposed to fish farms is getting a moratorium on large aquaculture projects passed a growing number of coastal towns.

Grid reliability:

The New England electric grid manager says it's prepared for the mild winter in the forecast, but extreme cold could require conservation measures.

Winter warming:

Data from the nonprofit Climate Central charts New England winter warming in the past 50 years. It's worst in Burlington, Vt.

Solar:

The state says it could have done more voluntary public outreach on solar projects that have raised public ire in unused land on I-95 exit ramps in Augusta.

3D printed house:

The University of Maine's "BioHome3D," printed from wood fibers, gets the Architectural Digest treatment.

Local climate rebates:

Freeport considers using pandemic relief funds for local rebates to help residents buy heat pumps, EVs and other devices.

Hydro-Quebec:

Quebec's auditor-general found a decline in the reliability of the hydropower giant's service to its Canadian customers.

Transmission lines:

Construction began on the "Champlain Hudson Power Express," which will bring Hydro-Quebec electricity through Vermont to New York without benefitting New England, unlike competitors like the CMP corridor.

Mass timber:

New buildings on Bowdoin College's campus use mass timber, a climate-friendly material made of laminated wood pulp.

Offshore wind workforce:

UMaine is launching a training program for the offshore wind industry, including a new undergraduate concentration in the energy source.

Woodpeckers:

The red-bellied woodpecker is turning up in Maine more and more as its range moves northward.

Erosion:

Congress passed a defense spending bill that includes funding to address long-time erosion problems in Camp Ellis, near Saco, with a new jetty and beach replenishment.

Coastal resilience:

Several Maine land trusts and towns got federal money to protect communities and habitats from climate change-driven increased flooding and storms.

Tires:

One man in Ellsworth is determined to clean up an accumulation of old tires from a creek bed behind a former service station.

Emerald ash borer:

For the first time, Portland had to remove trees damaged by the invasive species, which is the reason for inter-state firewood quarantines.

Thanks for reading. See you next week.

Annie Ropeik is a freelance environmental reporter based in Portland and a board member with the Society of Environmental Journalists. You can reach her at aropeik@gmail.com or @aropeik, or at her website.

Kate Cough covers energy and the environment for The Maine Monitor. She's a graduate of Columbia University and an 8th generation Mainer born in Portland who's now decamped Downeast. You can reach her at kate@themainemonitor.org or @kaitlincough.

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