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Ag Weather Update

Matt Dixon, Meteorologist

UK Ag Weather Center

Updated 11-17-22

Well below normal temps continue into the weekend, but a warmup is on the way!

Mid-November or mid-January? It sure feels like the latter right now. I'm writing this update on Thursday afternoon in Lexington, where the current temperature is 30 degrees. This is good for 25 degrees below our normal high on November 17th of 55.1 degrees!

Not only has it been cold, but we've also seen some of that "white stuff"! Our current cold snap followed a decent snowfall on Saturday along the Ohio River where some folks saw 1-2+ inches. Below is a look at those accumulations from the National Weather Service.

Unfortunately, it's going to get even colder this weekend with a couple cold fronts sinking through the area. We'll still see highs in the 30s to low 40s, but at night, lows in the teens will be in play. Sunday morning looks to be the coldest with a good chunk of the state in the mid-teens. Below is a look at forecast low temperatures from the GFS model for 7AM on Sunday. Let's look at the bright side....we're not in Wisconsin!

If you haven't already done so, I just got off the phone with Dr. John Strang, UK Horticulture specialist, and he suggests to protect matted row strawberries with a layer of straw. We usually don't worry about mulching until December, but winter came early this year! According to HO-16: Strawberry Production in Kentucky, temperatures of 12 to 18 degrees can injure plants and reduce bloom.

In addition to the cold air temperatures, we'll also have some wind in the forecast this weekend. In doing so, it'll feel much cooler than actual air temperature. The livestock cold stress will even dip into the "Danger" category at times. Be sure to take precautions. Going to the UK/Georgia game on Saturday? Bundle up! While air temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s during the game, breezy conditions will make it feel more like the mid to upper 20s!

In some great news, a much anticipated warmup is on the way for next week. Look for highs back in the 50s. Some may even hit 60 by Wednesday and Thursday. Compared to where we've been, I would more or less call this a "heat wave"! 

Looking at precipitation, we have a mostly dry week ahead. We could see some snow showers accompany the front tonight/tomorrow, but nothing more than a dusting here and there. The next chance arrives next Thursday/Friday, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. Looking at the month of November thus far, the state has averaged 1.38 inches, which is about a half inch below normal. We've seen some decent rainfall events over the past couple weeks, but we still have a long ways to go in making up long-term deficits. Below is a look at 90-day departure from normal precipitation. Much of Western KY is running 6-8 inches below normal for this time frame.

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Related News from UK and Beyond

Kentucky Crop Progress and Condition Report - USDA NASS Kentucky Field Office, November 14, 2022

UK Corn and Soybean Newsletter - CAFE Grain and Forage Center of Excellence, November 2022

History of first snow of the season for thousands of U.S. stations - Rebecca Lindsey, November 16, 2017


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