- Democrats are seeking ways to raise taxes to meet their $3.5 trillion spending plan over the next decade. Previous proposals, such as a capital gains tax have proved more controversial within the democratic party, which needs broad consensus since Republicans are opposing any and all tax increases. The latest proposal, which is estimated to be able to raise $172 billion over the next decade, would add a 2% excise tax on any publicly traded company which engages in a stock buyback program.
- Over two decades the US government has become significantly more comfortable pursuing debt-driven policies. This is evident in the fact that in 2001 America’s public debt was equal to roughly one half of GDP. Today the level of debt 1.25x GDP. Similarly, the Federal Reserve, which has now pursued quantitative easing policies during two separate economic crises, has grown its balance sheet by 11x. Needless to say this excess liquidity has been one major factor in the stock market’s unprecedented rise.
- The rise in real estate prices still seems to be partially driven by the work-from-home movement. More than 50% of all recent home buyers surveyed by realtor.com said they preferred remote work. The same survey also showed that 22% of millennial buyers were willing to buy a home further from the office since they were willing to extend their commutes.
- President Biden’s approval rating recently dropped below 50%. Although the past doesn't determine the future, this development bodes well for the stock market. Historically, the stock market has had an annual return of 12.9% when Presidential approval ratings were between 35%-50%. In comparison the market’s return is only 4.4% when the approval rating is above 65%. This is possibly due to the fact that it is more likely that the President tries to push through major policy changes when his approval rating is highest.
WSJ – Democrats Float Partnership, Buyback Taxes to Fund $3.5 Trillion Spending Plan
Barrons – Two Decades After 9/11. The Fiscal Wounds Run Deep Too
Barrons – Remote Workers Are on the Move. What It Means for the Housing Market
MarketWatch – Why Stocks Are Likely to Rise If Bidens Approval Rating Keeps Sliding
Monday: Federal budget (Aug.)
Tuesday: NFIB small business index (Aug.), Consumer price index (Aug.), Core CPI (Aug.)
Wednesday: Import price index (Aug.), Empire State index (Sept),
Industrial production (Aug.), Capacity utilization (Aug.)
Thursday: Retail sales (Aug.),Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Sept.),
Business inventories (Aug.)
Friday: UMich consumer sentiment index (Sept.)