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Healthcare is taking up a growing share of U.S. household spending. In 2023, spending rose 7.5% to $4.9 trillion—outpacing GDP for the first time since the pandemic. It now exceeds groceries and housing as a percentage of household budgets. 1
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The S&P 500 tends to perform well when it's up 5–10% by mid-year (as it is in 2025). In those years (since 1950), the average return for the rest of the year is +6.0%, with full-year gains averaging 13.9%. *2
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The U.S. dollar had its worst first-half performance in over 50 years. It fell 13% vs. the euro and 6% vs. the yen, reversing 2024’s strong-dollar trend. 3
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Copper prices hit record highs after Trump announced a 50% import tax starting Aug. 1. Prices spiked the most in a single day since 1968 and ended the week up 9.1%. The U.S. imports nearly half of its copper, mainly from Canada and Chile. 4
- AMA - "Trends in health care spending"
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The Irrelevant Investor - "The Compound and Friends: Reasons to Remain Overweight"
- WSJ - "Plunging Dollar Leaves American Travelers With Less Buying Power This Summer"
- WSJ- "Five Things to Know About Record Copper Prices"
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Economic Calendar
Monday:
None scheduled
Tuesday:
Consumer price index (Jun), CPI year over year, Core CPI (Jun), Core CPI year over year, Empire State manufacturing survey (Jul), Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speech, Fed Governor Michael Barr speech, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speech, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speech
Wednesday:
Producer price index (Jun), Core PPI (Jun), PPI year over year, Core PPI year over year, Industrial production (Jun), Capacity utilization (Jun), Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr speech, Fed Beige Book, New York Fed President John Williams speech
Thursday:
Initial jobless claims (Jul), U.S. retail sales (Jun), Retail sales minus autos (Jun), Import price index (Jun), Import price index minus fuel (Jun), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Jul), Business inventories (May), Home builder confidence index (Jul), Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speech, San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks, Fed Governor Lisa Cook speech, Fed Governor Christopher Waller speech
Friday:
Housing starts (Jun), Building permits (Jun), Consumer sentiment (prelim) (Jul)
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