As noted, the legislation has advanced to the Senate, or Step 5, where a required series of five discussion sessions are now expected to begin after municipal elections in October. At this point in Brazil’s legislative process, one of three things can happen:

• If three-fifths of all Senators could vote in favor of the proposal during both of two required rounds of voting, the legislation will pass;
• If the Senate makes any amendments to the legislation, the bill would return to a House Special Committee for consideration and repeat Steps 3-5 before it can be enacted; or
• If less than three-fifths of all senators vote in favor, Brazil’s casino legislation its back to square one and a new bill will have to be introduced.

Last month, in an interview with Ponder 360, Senator Irajá Silvestre (PSD-TO), a main coordinator of the bill, indicated that there already are enough votes to approve the matter in the Senate plenary. "I am convinced and confident that we have enough votes to pass this bill because it is important for Brazil. It is not a duel of the opposition against the situation or of the right against the left. It is an economic and social agenda," he said.

Updated Market Forecast

As The Innovation Group continues to follow the potential Brazilian land-based gaming market, we have updated our revenue projections based on current legislation. Our model contains a multitude of adjustments required to account for demographic and economic diversity across the country, as follows.

• The eligible gaming customer base was adjusted to account only for those above subsistence level incomes.
• Penetration rates were based on a combination of current Latin American gaming behavior and higher, aspirational rates found in more fully developed North American gaming markets. Penetration rates also were adjusted to reflect the differences between rural and urban residents.
• Base international tourism growth as well as induced tourism from gaming both were considered in the analysis.

TIG’s updated Brazil Gaming Revenue Forecast Model – under the current legislation and distribution on the table – yielded a market potential above US$6 in gross gaming revenue from casinos, with substantial non-gaming revenue available in addition to GGR. 

TIG's national gaming demand model can be adapted to reflect multiple implementation scenarios and to efficiently provide customized analyses for specific states, cities, and sites. Contact TIG SVP Michael Vanaskie to learn more or to set up a meeting next month in Las Vegas.