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CURRENT MARKET PERSPECTIVE

NOTE: You Are Missing our Subscriber Mid-Week Update - You Are working with only half the info!


GOLD $$, LEASE & BORROWING RATES SURGE!

RETAIL ENTERING EQUITIES - PROFESSIONALS REDUCING

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The precious metals market is showing signs of breaking with physical 'shortages' evident as:


  • Borrowing rates for GLD rise (chart above)
  • Lease rates for physical rise (chart right)


All are exploding higher!


"This signals total panic! There’s no gold underpinning the London market!"

1- TECHNICAL LAB



"BE CAUTIOUS WHEN OTHERS ARE NO LONGER FEARFUL!"



"NEW" = THIS WEEK'S CHART

A-SENTIMENT


This week was just another massive short-squeeze and the dash-for-trash escalates. (Most Shorted stocks are up almost 8% from Monday lows.)


So for now the US has very high corporate profits, very high asset prices, very high fiscal deficits, very high trade deficits and very low wages versus history. These 5 extremes together don't feel sustainable, but they’ve existed for several years already. So trying to work out the turning point is tough.


VIX around 20 is pricing substantial "fear", but far from panic. You don't compare trending to mean reverting assets, but note we have not closed this high in VIX since the mid December panic.

NEW--1- SENTIMENT INDICATORS

02-08-25


Different Market Sentiment Indicators -


Despite a strong U.S. equity position, the reintroduction of Trumponomics and associated policies is reshaping investor sentiment.


This has led to increased market volatility and a shift towards more defensive strategies of late.

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-SENTIMENT-INDICATORS image

THIS WEEK'S POSTS

NEW--2- AVERAGE PERCENTILE OF SENTIMENT INDICATORS - 02-08-25


Bullish sentiment dominated late 2024, but the landscape has shifted in early 2025. The prospect of “Trumponomics” is introducing new challenges, increasing market volatility and driving some investors towards defensive strategies.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-SENTIMENT-AVERAGE-PERCENTILE-OF-SENTIMENT-INDICATORS image

NEW--3- SENTIMENT- AAII BULL-BEAR - 02-07-25


Fading bulls, excited bears - Rather big moves in the latest AAII sentiment survey. Note bears at the highest levels since November 2023.  

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-AAII-BULL-BEAR-1 image

NEW--4- SENTIMENT- AAII BULL-BEAR - 02-07-25


Big moves like this in the AAII bull/bear spread has resulted in SPX catching bids. Are we setting up for another break out move that sucks people in?  

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-SENTIMENT-AAII-BULL-BEAR-2 image

NEW--5- SENTIMENT - CNN FEAR-GREED

02-05-25

We are in fear land, but it sure doesn't feel like that! 

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-SENTIMENT-CNN-FEAR-GREED image

NEW--6- EQUITY SENTIMENT

02-04-25

Sell side equity sentiment was unchanged in January, 1ppt from “Sell” signal.

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-SENTIMENT-EQUITY-SENTIMENT image

WEEK OLD POSTS

NEW THIS WEEK CONTINUED

NEW--7- INVESTOR SENTIMENT

02-04-25

Investor sentiment moved back above neutral, (matches CNN 51 Neutral reading), but market bounce did not have momentum.  

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-SENTIMENT-INDICATOR image

NEW--8- SENTIMENT – PUT-CALL RATIO

02-04-25

Put/Call volume ratio (5d ma) at the lowest levels in a long time.  

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-SENTIMENT-PUT-CALL-RATIO image

NEW--9- SENTIMENT-PUT-CALL SKEW

02-04-25 

Put call skew at 8/10. Goldman's Marshall: "....negative for forward equity returns as it shows that investors are already positioned for short-term upside and have less room to become more bullish."  

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-SENTIMENT-PUT-CALL-RATIO-SKEW image

PRIOR WEEK CONTINUED

6- SECTOR SENTIMENT TRENDS - 01-31-25

Click to Enlarge

Technology is trending down while Financials are now trending up. (See MATASII Financial Index in the Technical Analysis section below.)

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-3-Sentiment-Grid image

7- CNN FEAR-GREED INDEX - 01-31-25

Sentiment remains in neutral territory.

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-3-CNN-FEAR-GREED image

B- FUND FLOWS - ETFs, FUND MANAGERS, HEDGE FUNDS, REBALANCING & ROTATION



CHART TOP RIGHT:

NEW--1- CUMULATIVE FLOWS

02-04-25


The US inflow beat goes on.  US equity flows have picked up even more into 2025.








CHART BOTTOM RIGHT:

NEW--2- TECHNOLOGY FLOWS

02-03-25


The selloff early in the week saw the biggest inflows to Tech funds in 4 months, particularly into areas such as Semis that saw the largest pullbacks. 

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-FLOWS-US-2025-Pick-Up image
UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-FLOWS-TECHNOLOGY image




NEW--3- CUMULATIVE FLOWS

02-04-25

CHART RIGHT: Chart shows cumulative fund flows across assets.




NEW--4- CHART MIDDLE - 02-04-25

Buying pressure from retail investors has been the key driver of positive market moves over the past two weeks. Retail bought both S&P 500 stocks and Nasdaq stocks.

  • Data suggests that Retail investors were modest sellers of Nasdaq stocks this past Monday, but added significantly for the rest of the week.
  • There are a number of "causes for concern" now when we look at positioning indicators. It has been retail investors that have done the majority of the buying over the last few days. Inflows into equity funds have been close to "manic-like".
  • Put-call skew is extreme. Hedge fund gross is extreme. Buckle up! 





NEW--5- CHART BOTTOM RIGHT - 02-04-25

It may be nothing, BUT asset managers and leveraged funds running lowest equity exposure in a while!

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-FLOWS-CUMULATIVE-2 image
UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-INDICATORS-POSITIONING-RETAIL image
UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-INDICATORS-ASSET-MANAGERS-LEVERAGED-FUNDS image

C- PATTERNS - CONCENTRATIONS, SET-UPS, RELATIONSHIPS, INTRA-MARKET

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-02-08-25-ME-PATTERNS-BEATS-v-MISSES image



NEW--1- BEATS V MISSES

02-08-25


CHART RIGHT:


Companies that miss on earnings are punished, but companies that beat are not rewarded

D- INDICATORS - ECONOMIC, CREDIT & CORRELATION INDICATORS

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-02-08-25-INDICATORS-BUYBACKS-2 image


NEW--1- BUYBACK AUTHORIZATIONS

02-04-25


On the authorization front, we see 2025 YTD authorizations stand at $102.9B, small up vs last year, but still "room to grow" to take out that 2021 record.  Active week for new repurchase authorizations. We saw 21 programs authorized this week for $42.0B. 

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-INDICATORS-BUYBACKS image


NEW--2- CHART RIGHT

02-03-25


The emotionless VWAP bid is here...


"We currently see ~45% of the S&P 500 is in open window with ~60% in open window by the end of the week."  



NEW--3- "MANIC-LIKE" RETAIL BUYING

02-04-25


CHART TOP RIGHT: Buying pressure from retail investors has been the key driver of positive market moves over the past two weeks. Retail bought both S&P 500 stocks and Nasdaq stocks.

  • Data suggests that Retail investors were modest sellers of Nasdaq stocks this past Monday, but added significantly for the rest of the week.
  • There are a number of "causes for concern" now when we look at positioning indicators. It has been retail investors that have done the majority of the buying over the last few days. Inflows into equity funds have been close to "manic-like".
  • Put-call skew is extreme. Hedge fund gross is extreme. Buckle up! 


NEW--4- CHART BOTTOM RIGHT - It may be nothing, BUT asset managers and leveraged funds running lowest equity exposure in a while!


RETAIL MANIA 

1. Monday: Retail net bought $2.8B (+5.5z vs. 1M avg), a level last seen in March 2020.  

2. Early Tuesday: Retail imbalance hit $3.01B (+7.3z vs. 1M avg), a new record.  

3. Tuesday Close: Retail net bought 4B (+4.5z over 1 Year avg), with 4B (+4.5 z over 1 Year avg, with 3B in single names (largest ever).  

4. Mag-7 dominated; 2.1B inflows, led by NVDA (1.6B, 99th %ile) and TSLA ($700M, 99th %ile).  

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-INDICATORS-POSITIONING-RETAIL image
UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-INDICATORS-ASSET-MANAGERS-LEVERAGED-FUNDS image

2- FUNDAMENTALS


EARLY SIGNS OF EMERGING DOWNWARD TREND IN EARNINGS

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-2-Equity-Risk-Premium image





US EQUITY RISK PREMIUM - 01-29-25


Equity Risk Premiums are as low as they ever have been since the Dotcom Era of "Irrational Exuberance".


This is all very unnatural and, with the charts below, should be taken as a warning.


However, we had the same sorts of warnings during the Dotcom Bubble. Yet the market stayed elevated for 3-6 months longer before the down trend was clearly established.

2025-01-21_06-12-31 image




MARKET IS AT ATH OVER-VALUATION

The median analyst expectation is for another 10% rise in the S&P this year, quite audacious when you consider the index is up over 50% over the past two years. Stock allocations are at highs, with the household, financial and foreign sectors at record or near-record overweights versus financial assets. The market, based on a broad swathe of measures, has NEVER BEEN AS OVERVALUED!

non%20fin%20domestic%20priorities image


PROFITS AS A % OF GDP

CHART RIGHT: US domestic corporate profit margins have burst way above their usual 15% maximum as ‘Greedflation’ has taken hold. This is remarkable, because never in history have corporate margins risen when faced with sharply rising unit costs – until now?

3- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.

NOTE


NEW IMAGE CHANGES ARE LABELED WITH A BLUE TRIPLE ***STAR***

OLD IMAGE CHANGES ARE LABELED WITH A RED TRIPLE ***STAR***


OLD IMAGES REFLECT MINIMAL CHANGE, but Narrative is ALWAYS updated.

ALL IMAGES UPDATED WEEKLY, (EITHER THE MID-WEEK OR WEEKEND REPORTS).

REMEMBER: SIMPLY CLICK YOUR LIVE SUBSCRIBER LINK TO SEE THE LATEST UPDATED CHART.

PATTERNS - Wedges, Channels, Trading Ranges, Ending Diagonals, ATH (All Time Highs / Lows)

GETTING TO DECISION TIME

ACROSS THE EQUITY BOARD



NEW PATTERNS WE ARE WATCHING

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-PATTERNS-TNX image


TNX - 10Y UST - 02-05-25



CHART RIGHT: The 10Y Treasury is breaking below the trend line in place since September.


Additionally, it is now trading below its 50 DMA, which is somewhat unusual?

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-MARKET-PATTERNS-EURO image


EURO - 02-05-25



CHART RIGHT: The big negative trend line stays intact.


Note we are once again "well" below the 50 day. Key support at 1.025.

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-MARKET-PATTERNS-EURO image


EURO - 02-05-25



CHART RIGHT: The big negative trend line stays intact.


Note we are once again "well" below the 50 day. Key support at 1.025.

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-MARKETS-PATTERNS-MAG-7 image

MAG-7 - 02-07-25


CHART RIGHT: The MAG index has done very little since early December, but note we are currently flirting with the big trend line, and trading below the 50 day for the first time since September.

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-3-NVDA-fighting-the-200DMA image


NVDA - 01-29-25



CHART RIGHT: Fighting the 200 DMA.


NVDA is trading right on the 200 day moving average as of writing. Massive moves, especially if you consider the changes in market cap. This is not how strong leaders behave.

EXISTING PATTERNS WE ARE TRACKING

PRIOR PATTERN POST

GOLD - 01/24/25


Gold continues pushing new recent highs post breaking out of the dynamic triangle formation earlier this month. Momentum is strong, but note we are approaching ATHs as well as RSI trading at the most overbought levels in several months. On the other hand, overbought can stay overbought for longer than most think possible.

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-2-PATTERNS-Gold-Double-Top image

S&P 500 - 01-17-25

SPX remains stuck between the longer term trend line, (where we bounced from recently), and the shorter term trend line that has been in place since ATHs. No direction for a few months has led to complex psychology developing. A break-out is certainly shaping up barring a macro shock! 

LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-5-PATTERNS-SPX-2 image

NASDAQ - 01-17-25

NASDAQ continues chopping inside the dynamic triangle like formation. Note we are above the 50 day, post putting in that hammer candle on the 100 day a few sessions ago. The short term trend line comes in around here. Is there enough momentum to kill the many bears?

LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-5-PATTERNS-NASDAQ image

CURRENT PATTERN

NEW-- GOLD - 02-07-25


Another day, another day higher in gold.


Overbought....but still room to run before we touch the upper part of the trend channel.


UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-MARKETS-PATTERNS-GOLD image

S&P 500 - 02-07-25

STICK STUCK! SPX continues chopping around. There is no new trend, so treat this as a mostly mean reverting market, with a lot of headline risk, magnifying the chop, both ways..

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-MARKETS-PATTERNS-SPX image

NEW-- NASDAQ - 02-07-25

Chop heaven...not getting excited until we break out, either way.

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-MARKETS-PATTERNS-NASDAQ image

STRONG BANK EARNINGS & WEAKENING YIELDS PROPEL BANKS HIGHER

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-3-MARKETS-EQUITY-EUROPEAN-BANKS image

***THE MATASII BANK INDEX***


CHART RIGHT: European banks have outperformed the Magnificent Seven since January 2022. This outperformance is particularly noteworthy given the historical dominance of U.S. tech giants in global markets.


CHART BELOW:


  • The MATASII Bank Index rose this week closing down Friday at 1597.47 -7.59 (-0.47%) for the day compared to last Friday at 1570.71.
  • In the bottom panel, the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator found overhead resistance at the dashed orange trend line highlighted by the red arrow.
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-MATASII-Bank-Index-Daily image

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

FINANCIAL MARKETS CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN MAG-7

***THE MATASII FINANCIAL INDEX***




NEW: CHART RIGHT TOP - 02-04-25: Fund flows to Financials surged to a 3-year high on the back of strong Q4 earnings reports.







CHART RIGHT BOTTOM - 02-02-25: Financial Mania - Biggest inflows to financials since Jan’ 22.


CHART BELOW:


  • The MATASII Financial Index fell this week to close Friday at 2467.11, down -33.12 (-1.32%) for the day compared to last Friday at 2552.18.
  • In the bottom panel, the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator found support at the black dashed line trend line highlighted by the red arrow.
UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-FLOWS-FINANCIALS image
UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-3-FLOWS-FINANCIALS image
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-MATASII-Financial-Index-Daily image

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

UnderTheLens-11-27-24-DECEMBER-Newsletter-2-Mag-7 image

CONTROL PACKAGE

  1. APPLE - AAPL - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  2. AMAZON - AMZN - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  3. META - META - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  4. GOOGLE - GOOG - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  5. NVIDIA - NVDA - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  6. MICROSOFT - MSFT - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  7. TESLA - TSLA - DAILY (CHART LINK)


***MAGNIFICENT 7***


CHART RIGHT: This chart makes the 2000 Dotcom Bubble look like a "minor warm-up"?


NEW CHART BELOW: It was a big week for Mega-Cap tech earnings, but they somewhat disappointed as Mag7 stocks are down over $625 billion in market cap in the last two weeks, (with only META and NVDA up this week). The chart below shows the weekly trading percentage changes of each of the Mag-7 since August 2024.

bfm28E6_1 image

CURRENT DAY'S VIEW:


  • The Mag-7 was down for the week. The Mag-7 closed Friday at 2259.65, down -36.52 (-1.59%) compared to last Friday when we closed at 2308.19.
  • Meanwhile the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator (lower panel) has begun to turn down.
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-Magnificent-Seven-Weekly image

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

***NVIDIA - NVDA - DAILY***

AS GOES NVDA SO GOES THE MAG-7!


AS GOES THE MAG-7 SO GOES THE MARKET!

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-3-NVDA-fighting-the-200DMA image

With a market cap of $3.61tn and nearly as big as the entire DAX and CAC combined, earnings are going to be a big event. To give you a scale for their astonishing earnings trajectory over such a short period of time, at the recent lows in Jan 2023 Nvidia earned $4.4bn over the preceded last 12m. However, today the consensus will see them earn $61.4bn over the last 12 months. Then, by the time we hit 2027, they are expected to earn $118.1bn LTM.


The growth in NVDA’s forward revenues and operating earnings have both been remarkable, as has its ability to maintain a forward profit margin north of 55%. Nvidia’s forward P/E of 32.6 is certainly higher than the S&P 500’s forward earnings multiple of 21.6, but it looks reasonable relative to the company’s expected forward earnings growth of 53.1%.

LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-5-The-Great-Concentration image

NEW-- NVDA - 01-29-25

CHART RIGHT ABOVE: Fighting the 200 DMA.

NVDA is trading right on the 200 day moving average as of writing. Massive moves, especially if you consider the changes in market cap. This is not how strong leaders behave.


Today's Note:

  • NVDA pushed higher closing Friday at 129.84 +1.16 (+0.90%).
  • NVDA rose from support at the 200 DMA pushing higher towards its 50-100 DMA.
  • The NVDA MATASII Momentum indicator (black dotted line) in the lower panel offered initial support.


Longer Term Note:

  • At some point, the major unfilled gaps (at much lower levels) must be filled. We anticipate a likely test of the 200 DMA in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025.
  • NVDA therefore may no longer become a Short to Intermediate Long Term hold, but rather a position trading stock, as other competitors enter the space, force margins and the earnings growth rate contracts. 
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-NVDA-Daily image

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

***GOOG - DAILY***


Alphabet (GOOG): Q4 revenue and Cloud revenue missed, while it also sees 2025 capex well above expectations, supporting NVDA.


  • GOOG closed Friday at further to 187.14 down -6.17 (-3.19%) after reporting disappointing earning earlier in the week.
  • The 50 DMA initially offering support was subsequently broken to the downside.
  • Support initially found at the MATASII Momentum Indicator's lower support level was subsequently also broken, marked by the red arrow.
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-GOOG-Daily image

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

***META - DAILY***

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-MARKETS-PATTERNS-META image

NEW-- CHART ABOVE: $10k at the IPO held through yesterday's close would now be worth roughly $184,200. But it certainly didn't get there in a straight line. Recall that META went "all-in" on the metaverse in the early 2020s, which combined with a nasty bear market for growth stocks, resulted in a 76% drawdown from September 2021 to November 2022.

2025-02-07_10-36-20 image


NEW CHART ABOVE: META extends its win streak to 15 days... Zuck hasn't had a down day since Trump took office.

CHART BELOW ;

  • Meta was up further from Wednesday's close at 704.87 +0.68 (+0.10%) to close Friday at 714.52 +2.53 (+0.36%).
  • The lower two panels reflect META is now pushing through its overhead RSI and MATASII Momentum Indicator Resistance shown by the red arrows.
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-META-Daily image

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-3-Apple-Cash-Balances image

***APPLE - AAPL - DAILY***


CHART RIGHT: Does Apple have the cash to sustain its highly aggressive stock buyback program which has been supporting its Price per Share?


  • AAPL fell this week closing Friday at 227.63 --5.59 (-2.40%) for the day, compared to last Friday's close at 236.00.
  • AAPL appears to be looking for support at lower 200 DMA.
  • APPL found support at the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator trend line, marked by the red arrow in the middle panel.
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-APPL-Daily image

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-Tesla-TSLA image

***TESLA - TSLA - DAILY***


CHART RIGHT: TSLA's Intermediate high may have been put in at its recent high.


  • TSLA closed down further Friday at 361.62 -12.70 (-3.39%) for the day.
  • Price broke decisively this week through the rapidly rising well defined support level at the 50 DMA, which had been supplying support.
  • TSLA's MATASII Momentum Indicator shown by the orange dotted trend line in the middle panel and marked by the red arrow was also decisively broken.


EARNINGS -

Tesla Inc (TSLA) Q4 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.73 (exp. 0.75), Revenue 25.71bln (exp. 27.21bln), Shares +4.1% after market.

Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-TSLA-Daily image

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

"CURRENCY" MARKET (Currency, Gold, Black Gold (Oil) & Bitcoin)

Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-10Y-REAL-RATES-Daily image

10Y REAL YIELD RATE (TIPS)


Real Rates have broken through its descending trend wedge channel line, (shown in the chart to the right - as of close 02/07/25). (LATEST)


The latest US NY Fed SCE has seen inflation expectations continue to increase across the forecast horizon.


LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-5-DOLLAR-DXY image

CONTROL PACKAGE


There are TEN charts we have outlined in prior chart packages, which we will continue to watch closely as a CURRENT Control Set:


  1. US DOLLAR -DXY - MONTHLY (CHART LINK)
  2. US DOLLAR - DXY - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  3. GOLD - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  4. GOLD cfd's - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  5. GOLD - Integrated - Barrick Gold (CHART LINK)
  6. SILVER - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  7. OIL - XLE - MONTHLY (CHART LINK)
  8. OIL - WTIC - MONTHLY - (CHART LINK)
  9. BITCOIN - BTCUSD -WEEKLY (CHART LINK)
  10. 10y TIPS - Real Rates - Daily (CHART LINK)


***US DOLLAR - DXY - DAILY***


CHART RIGHT ABOVE: DOLLAR - DXY - 01-15-25 DXY long positioning is in the 95th percentile.


CHART RIGHT BELOW: DOLLAR - DXY - 01-18-25 For now just a much needed pause. 21 day and the steep trend line come in around these levels. The Dollar Has Now Surpassed All Previous Peaks, Except 1985.

LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-US-Dollar-DXY image



IMPORTANT -


THE US ELECTION HAS POTENTIALLY MADE MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PERCEPTION OF THE US$ .



THERE IS A STRONG CHANCE THAT THE LOWS SHOWN BELOW ARE

NO LONGER VALID.


CHART BELOW: DOLLAR - DXY - 01-18-25 Looks like the dollar is heading for an overshoot...

LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-5-Dollar-v-US-GDP image

CURRENT DAY'S VIEW:

  • The dollar was mostly flat this week, being down in after hours Friday trading at 108.096 +0.392 (+0.36%) compared to Friday cash close at 108.501.
  • The DXY continues to find support around the 50 DMA.
  • The dollar is pushing off slightly from the near term support at the MATASII Momentum Indicator's dotted black trend line marked by the red arrow in the lower panel.
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-DXY-Daily image

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***GOLD***

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-MARKETS-GOLD image


NEW-- GOLD TRADE WAR BOOST - 02-05-25

The combination of tariff threats and inflation fears has created a perfect storm for gold prices, pushing them to unprecedented levels.

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-MARKETS-GOLD-CTA image

NEW-- CTA BUYING - 02-03-25: According to BoAML CTAs need to buy more of the shiny metal..."Gold reached a new all-time high on Friday and our model projects that trend followers will pick up their pace of buying on all price paths next week."

UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-4-PATTERNS-GOLD image


CHART RIGHT: NEW-- GOLD - 02-05-25

..another ATH in gold. RSI at very overbought levels, but overbought can stay overbought for longer than most think possible. Still room to squeeze if we are to try the upper part of the big trend channel.


NOTES:

  • Gold has recently been supported and further boosted by the PBoC resuming Gold purchases in November after a six-month halt. 
  • We note that ETF buying however has been surprisingly weak over the past four years, as shown by the 2nd chart above.


CHART BELOW:


  • Gold continues to push to new highs this week with Friday's post-market trading at ~2860.09 up +4.29 (+0.15%).
  • Gold has finally broken out from the triangle trap it was in, (the triangle shown to the left above).
  • Gold also broke through its important MATASII Momentum Indicator, as shown in the lower panel and marked by the red arrow and black dashed trend line.
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-GOLD-Daily image

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US EQUITY MARKETS

LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-5-PATTERNS-SPX image

CONTROL PACKAGE



There are FIVE charts we have outlined in prior chart packages that we will continue to watch closely as a CURRENT "control set":


  1. The S&P 500 (CHART LINK)
  2. The DJIA (CHART LINK)
  3. The Russell 2000 through the IWM ETF (CHART LINK)
  4. The MAGNIFICENT SEVEN (CHART ABOVE WITH MATASII CROSS - LINK)
  5. Nvidia (NVDA) (CHART LINK)


CHART RIGHT ABOVE: NEW-- S&P 500 - 01-15-25

SPX bounced with the Hammer candle right on the big trend line a few sessions ago. Futures are surging post the CPI print, currently trading above the 100 day again. Note the negative trend line coming in around 6025. Choppy tape as we still lack a new medium term trend.

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***S&P 500 - Daily Our Thought Experiment***


  • The S&P 500 was trading at the cash close Friday at 6025.98 down -57.58 (-0.95%) compared to last Friday's close at 6040.
  • Price is now trading once again at the support levels marked by the 21- 50 DMA levels which price has been tied to recently.
  • Momentum is also now finally trading again above the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator (middle panel) support level at the black dotted trend line, marked by the red arrow.
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-SPX-Daily-Thought-Experiment image

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LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-3-Russell-2000 image

***IWM - LONG iShare Russell 2000 ETF - Daily***


CHART RIGHT: The small-cap Russell 2000 index has faced a notable downturn in December 2024, experiencing a decline of over 8%. This marks its worst monthly performance since September 2022, reflecting a notable shift in investor confidence.


DAILY NOTE:

  • The IWM - LONG iShare Russell 2000 ETF was mostly flat for the week closing up Friday at 226.00 -2.62 (-1.16%) compared to close last Friday 228.69
  • The IWM,has found overhead resistance once again at the 100 DMA.
  • The IWM appears to be trying to separate upward from support at the ( lower panel ) Proprietary Momentum Indicator 's major support shown by the orange descending dashed line marked by the red arrow.
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-IWM-Daily image

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STOCK MONITOR: What We Spotted

UnderTheLens-03-27-24-APRIL-The-Future-Is-Coming-Into-Focus-Newsletter-2-Subscribers-Only image

BOND MARKET

LOWER BOND YIELDS CORRECTLY SPOT A WEAKER MACRO


CONTROL PACKAGE


There are FIVE charts we have outlined in prior chart packages that we will continue to watch closely as a CURRENT "control set":

  1. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - HOURLY (CHART LINK)
  2. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - DAILY (CHART LINK)
  3. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - WEEKLY (CHART LINK)
  4. The 30Y TREASURY BOND YIELD - TNX - WEEKLY (CHART LINK)
  5. REAL RATES (CHART LINK)


FISHER'S EQUATION = 10Y Yield = 10Y INFLATION BE% + REAL % = 2.422% + 2.067% = 4.489%


QRA PREVIEW: The quarterly refunding announcement will take place on Wednesday, February 5th. At the prior refunding, the Treasury maintained its guidance that the "Treasury does not anticipate needing to increase nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters." Whether this guidance is maintained will once again be the focus of the upcoming refunding. We will also get the updated buyback schedule. Last quarter it said it expects to purchase up to USD 30bln for liquidity support and USD 22.5bln for cash management purposes for Q4, so we will be looking to see if these sizes are maintained or adjusted. However, one wild card in the quarters ahead will be any spending implications from US President Trump's policies, while we also have a new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. However, Bank of America expects the announcement to be relatively uneventful despite the change in leadership, as they do not expect Bessent to make any significant shifts at his first quarterly refunding meeting. The desk expects the Treasury to hold nominal auction sizes constant at the Feb refunding, and nominal coupon auction sizes holding steady through FY25 and the first coupon increase in November 2025. Any shift in language, potentially to the "next couple quarters", or a complete removal of the language entirely, would signal an earlier increase in coupon sizes vs. BofA's November 2025 base case.


QUARTERLY REFUNDING: The US Treasury is offering USD 125bln of securities to refund USD 106.2bln, raising cash of USD 18.8bln (prev. USD 8.6bln Q/Q). Overall, the quarterly refunding was largely as expected, maintaining its nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes, while guidance saw a slight tweak. It expects to maintain nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters, a slight tweak from the prior guidance that "Treasury does not anticipate needing to increase nominal coupon or FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters". The removal of the "increase" language, according to the TBAC report, stressed "the Committee felt that any shift in language should not be read to indicate an expected near-term increase in nominal coupon auction sizes". Some members preferred dropping the language altogether to reflect the uncertain outlook, but the majority preferred moderating the language at this meeting, likely to keep optionality open amid uncertainty ahead. It also maintained that the "Treasury plans to address any seasonal or unexpected variations in borrowing needs over the next quarter through changes in regular bill auction sizes and/or CMBs." Looking ahead, analysts will be cognizant of any change in the composition of the Treasury funding with Treasury Secretary Bessent previously expressing a preference for funding through duration as opposed to short-term bills. In TIPS, the Treasury plans to maintain the 30YR TIPS new issue at USD 9bln, increase the 10yr TIPS reopening auction size by USD 1bln to USD 18bln, and increase the 5yr TIPS new issue to USD 25bln. For Bill issuance, the Treasury noted since Jan 21st, the Treasury has been using extraordinary measures to finance the government on a temporary basis, until the debt limit is suspended or increased, debt limit-related constraints will lead to greater than normal variability in benchmark bill issuance and significant usage of CMBs. The buybacks were largely maintained for liquidity support, where it plans weekly ops. of up to USD 4bln per operation in nominal coupon securities, and in longer maturity buckets, to conduct two operations, each up to USD 2bln over the refunding quarter. Overall it expects it will purchase up to USD 30bln in off-the-run securities across buckets for liquidity support (unchanged from Q4), but up to USD 59.5bln in the 1mth to 2yr bucket for cash management purposes (prev. USD 22.5bln).

LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-4-Patterns-TNX-Hourly image

CHART RIGHT:

There is a strong possibility that 4.72%, which was achieved during Wednesday trading, was the high for the current cycle.


US 10 year surging post payrolls. We are now "decisively" above the range, and there is no real stop until recent highs around 5%. The golden cross we have been pointing out for weeks is well in place. Last time a similar cross occurred, the 10 year gained some 125 bps over a few months. We are up around 70 bps since the latest Golden Cross kicked in.

***10Y UST - TNX - WEEKLY***


CURRENT DAY'S VIEW:

  • Yields fell aggressively this week with the QRA announcement.
  • The TNX closed Wednesday at 4.421 down-0.093 (-2.06%) for the day and down from Friday at 4.569.
  • Price has fallen to the 20 WMA and the downward dotted black trend line marked by the red arrow.
  • The Proprietary MATASII Momentum Indicators' (lower pane) support levels, shown by the dotted black line and highlighted by the red arrow, which had been broken to the upside is now looks to need to be retested.
Gords-DeskTop-02-05-25-TNX-Weekly image

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UnderTheLens-01-22-25-FEBRUARY-Macro-Themes-for-2025-Newsletter-3-PATTERNS-TNX image



10Y UST - TNX - 01-29-25


Bouncing perfectly on the bigger trend line.


Note the 50 day slightly lower.


Time to focus on bouncy rates again?

UnderTheLens-09-25-24-OCTOBER-A-Destabilizing-Food-Shock-Newsletter-2-Rising-Inflation-Break-Evens image


***10Y UST - TNX - HOURLY***


CURRENT DAY'S VIEW:


  • Yields fell aggressively this week with the QRA announcement, rebounding towards the 144 EMA later in the week.
  • The TNX closed Friday at 4.488 down +0.049 (+1.10%) for the day and down from Friday at 4.569.
  • The Proprietary MATASII Momentum Indicators' (lower pane) shows the support level (dashed black line) highlighted by the red arrow is now acting as support.
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-25-TNX-Hourly image

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COMMODITIES

LONGWave-12-18-24-DECEMBER-The-Re-Privatization-of-America-Newsletter-Commodities-v-Global-Manufacturing-PMIs image

***CRB COMMODITY INDEX - MONTHLY***


CHART RIGHT - 01/18/25

Rising global PMIs = Long commodities > Got Commodities?


  • The overall Commodity Indexes, as measured by the CRB Commodity, reflect a Corrective / Consolidation is presently nearing completion.
  • However, many of the individual sectors (not shown here) have already completed the Corrective / Consolidation and broken higher over the last 30-60 days.


  • Examples:
  • Invesco DB Agricultural Fund (DBA)
  • VanEck Agribusiness (MOO)
  • Food Producers (FT350 Food Producers - NMX45)
  • Teucrium Agricultural Fund ETV (TAGS)
  • Advisory Shares Restaurant ETF (EATZ)
  • Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ)
  • Teucrium Wheat Fund ETV (WEAT)
  • Teucrium Corn Fund ETV (CORN)
  • Teucrium Soybean Fund ETV (SOTB)
  • Teucrium Sugar Fund ETV (CANE)
Gords-DeskTop-02-07-24-CRB-COMMODITY-INDEX-Monthly image

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