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MARKET PERSPECTIVE
MARKET LAB
NOTE: At time of release of this Newsletter our DB provider warned of technical issues in possibly displaying some of the charts - if that occurs we will reissue the report.
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US OUTFLOWS & EU INFLOWS CONTINUE!
US 2025 EARNINGS BEING LOWERED
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NEW-- FLOWS - POSITIONING - SYSTEMATIC MACRO STRATEGIES - 03-11-25
Positioning has become clearer, but...
1. On the systematic deleveraging, systematic strategies aggregate exposure is still in the 60th %ile (5y), versus ~40% ile in Aug ’24 when de-leveraging stopped.
2. On retail, there are no signs of broad retail capitulation. But retail did not lend any support to the market with yesterday the largest day of net retail supply across single stocks and ETFs in 2 weeks.
3. On Equity L/S funds, US L/S funds nets were at 43%, the 1st %-tile over the last 12m and 30th percentile vs. the past 5 years, while gross leverage was at 209% (latest per the HF daily flows note), the 90% percentile over the last 12 months, so still quite elevated.
The positioning is now much cleaner than before .... but it’s not all clear yet!
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MARKET LAB
"BE CAUTIOUS WHEN OTHERS ARE NO LONGER FEARFUL!"
"NEW" = THIS WEEK'S CHART
INDEX
TECHNICALS
1- PATTERNS: Technical Setups, Wedges, Channels, Trading Ranges, Ending Diagonals, ATH (All Time Highs / Lows)
2- CORRELATIONS: Inter-Instrument, Inter-Market, Set-ups, Concentration, Beats v Misses
3- SENTIMENT: Fear-Greed, Bull-Bear, Over-Bought / Over-Sold, Shorting, Put-Calls, Risk Appetite Indicator
4- FUND FLOWS: Sectors, Global, Markets, etf & Fund Managers, Rotation, Positioning
5- INDICATORS: FCI, Buybacks, Volatility, Seasonality, Breadth, Beats / Misses, Margin Debt, Surprises Index
FUNDAMENTALS
1- RISK: Premia, ERP, Leverage, Cash Levels, Volatility VIX, VVIX), MOVE
2- EARNINGS: Earnings Per Share, Profits, Margins
3- VALUATIONS: PE, Sales-Book, Price-Book
4- YIELD CURVES: All Types (FFR, 90, 1Y, 2Y 5Y, 10Y, 30Y) Corporate (HY, IG)
5- METRICS: Buffett Indicator, Liquidity
6- PERFORMANCE: Q-o-Q, Y-o-Y, Gains & Losses
7- ECONOMICS: GDP Growth, Recessions
| | 1- PATTERNS - Technical Set-Up, Wedges, Channels, Trading Ranges, Ending Diagonals, ATH (All Time Highs / Lows) | | |
GETTING TO DECISION TIME
ACROSS THE EQUITY BOARD
EMERGING PATTERN(S) WE ARE WATCHING
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PRIOR - BEFORE THE PLUNGE
PATTERNS – SPX
03-08-25
We have noticed similarities to the 2022 correction in markets. Yes, we will have bounces, but sometimes you should zoom out and look at longer term crosses. The post Covid bull started with the 50 day crossing the 100 day in Q32020. The 2022 bear went serious post the negative 50/100 day cross early in the year. The latest bull went aggressive as the positive 50/100 day cross occurred in early 2024. Note the that the negative 50/100 day crossed kicked in this week. (click to enlarge)
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PATTERNS – SPX
03-07-25
Massive levels - Another day, another fight with the SPX range. There is some sort of medium term trend line coming in here, as well as the lower part of the range.
| To put this chart into perspective now look at the chart to the right with the 50/10DMA cross history..> | | |
CURRENT
PATTERNS – SPX
03-19-25
Remember 2022?
The year SPX grinded lower and lower...and skew was resetting despite the sell off in equities. Muted skew during the most recent correction bears many similarities to what we saw back in 2022. People just did not hedge, they just sold outright longs.
(More to Go)
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CURRENT
PATTERNS – SPX
03-19-25
SPX SINCE THE PEAK
SPX's short term trend line remains intact for now. We have bounced and it looks like we are trying to make a short term bottom here. Key supports down around 5540. Key resistance is the short term trend line. A close above it and the squeeze risks going FOMO...
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MAG-7 - 02-07-25
The MAG index has done very little since early December, but note we are currently flirting with the big trend line, and trading below the 50 day for the first time since September.
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CURRENT
PATTERNS - MAG-7
03-19-25
The MAG-7 pattern has not changed much since last week. Mag went Lag not long ago. The bull started with the big bullish 50/100 day cross in early 2023. Note that the negative 50/100 cross is about to kick in. More lag for the Mags?
PATTERNS - MAG-7
03-05-25
MAG and the 200 day - So far a perfect bounce on the 200 day moving average for the MAG index..
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GOLD - 01/24/25
Gold continues pushing new recent highs post breaking out of the dynamic triangle formation earlier this month. Momentum is strong, but note we are approaching ATHs as well as RSI trading at the most overbought levels in several months. On the other hand, overbought can stay overbought for longer than most think possible.
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CURRENT
GOLD - 02-19-25
Gold is back to the upper trend channel shown below as Gold's great trend channel remains intact. The latest short term break out is working out well. RSI is up and elevated, but still not at extreme levels. Short term 21 day moving higher, currently at $2930, while the 50 day comes in at $2850. It would be a shame not to print the upper part of the perfect channel, maybe even overshoot it.
GOLD - 02-28-25
Gold - so far so good - The much needed pause playing out as it should.
50 day now at $2770, just above the big break out level. RSI has come down, but could come down some more before one starts to nibble again.
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PATTERNS - NASDAQ
03-12-25
Key short term channel
NASDAQ's short term trend channel remains intact, but things could get very interesting should we push above it...
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NEW--2 AI / DEFENSE SECTOR – RHMG - 03-03-25
Who needs AI when you can have RHMG?
The stock doubled from Jan lows to today's highs.
RSI at 87! Chart right shows RHMG vs NVDA over the past 6 months:
RHMG.DE is the stock symbol for Rheinmetall AG, a German company that specializes in mobility and security solutions. The company operates in the defense and automotive sectors.
| | | | EXISTING PATTERNS WE CONTINUE TO TRACK | | |
NVDA - 01-29-25
Fighting the 200 DMA.
NVDA is trading right on the 200 day moving average as of writing. Massive moves, especially if you consider the changes in market cap. This is not how strong leaders behave
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CURRENT
NEW-- NVDA - 03-19-25
NVDA - 03-12-25
THURSDAY AM PRE-MARKET
NVDA bounced off the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator Support level (bottom panel marked by the red arrow).
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BITCOIN
We have reached our initial target support for BTC. -- BTC set for worst 3 days since '22 as ETFs start to pull size for the first time. It seems BTC is searching for support at its 200 DMA ($81,725) and perhaps even the pre-election level of $70,000.
The 40 WMA comes in around $76K. It is important to note that support has been found at the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicators (bottom panel) lower support level (black dashed line marked by the red arrow). (ENLARGEMENT)
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CURRENT
BITCOIN
03-19-25
Bitcoin's pattern has done little in the last week as it "hugs" its MATASII Proprietary momentum Indicator Support line in the bottom panel
BITCOIN
03-12-25
After testing low at 76.8 and the 40 WMA Bitcoin rebound to the upper trend of its rising trend channel (shaded area).
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EURO - 02-05-25
The big negative trend line stays intact.
Note we are once again "well" below the 50 day. Key support at 1.025.
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EURO - 02-19-25
Near-Term Bottom appears to be in.
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CURRENT
PATTERNS - EURO
03-19-25
Little Change in pattern over the last week
PATTERNS - EURO
03-12-25
Extremely Overbought
The Euro has reversed lower on all occasions post being this overbought.
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PATTERNS - EUR-US
03-12-25
SHOULD TAKE A BREATHER!
Euro has moved in close tandem with the Citi EUR-US economic surprises spread. UBS sums it up well: "There is scope for short-term EURUSD reversal given the speed of the move higher. Tariffs and geopolitics are headwinds, while US recession concerns look overdone".
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GERMAN DAX - 02-19-25
Our Proprietary MATASii methodology published last weekend (chart left) spotted this drawdown perfectly. DAX reversing perfectly off that huge upper trend line. The DAX squeeze has managed sucking in a lot of suckers. First support at 21k (futures), but this could correct much more.
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PATTERNS – GERMAN DAX - 03-03-25
DAX MANIA - DAX remains inside the trend channel that has been in place this year. Note the "perfect" bounce on the 21 day and the lower part of the trend channel during Friday lows. Note RSI came down during the consolidation, so looks there is more to come.
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CORRELATION - DAX v GERMAN 10Y YIELD
03-05-25
Yield Down - DAX Up - Yields Up DAX Up - The Dax doesn't care because of German "What Ever It takes Budget!"
| | 2- CORRELATIONS - Inter-Instrument & Inter-Market Relationships, Concentrations, Set-Ups, | |
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NEW--1- CORRELATION - MOVE (inv) v SPX
03-19-25
We have bounced from recent lows, but note that bond volatility has come down a lot over the past sessions.
You don't compare mean reverting (volatility) to trending assets over longer time periods, but note that the short term gap between SPX and MOVE (inverted) is rather wide.
Suspect this is due to reactions to Europe and the Bund
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CORRELATION - SPX v SKEW
03-12-25
The theme of strongly underperforming index skew continues.
This sell off has been about puking the underlying, not thinking about hedging the downside. SDEX is trading at levels we saw pre the sell off.
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NEW-- CORRELATION - RATES v SPREAD
03-08-25
The rates/spread correlation has been firmly negative in recent months - 10-year US Treasury yields and HY index spreads (left panel); right panel shows the rolling 12-month correlation in month-over-month changes in IG and HY index and the 10-year yield.
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CORRELATIONS - MOVE v 10Y YIELD
03-05-25
Bond volatility screaming - Sharply rising bond volatility, MOVE, usually occurs when rates are surging. We have seen the inverse play out over the past weeks, rates falling and MOVE surging. We saw a similar set up last July.
Bond volatility is "screaming" rate cuts!
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CORRELATIONS - BTC v TQQQ
02-26-25
All just leverage - Bitcoin and TQQQ (3x QQQ) have moved in tandem for a long time. Looks like BTC wants "this" even lower.
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PATTERN - NVDA v CISCO - 02-26-25
"One major concern about Nvidia is that its earnings growth rate is slowing. Seemingly exponential revenues growth was supercharged by the soaring forward profit margin from a low of 35% in 2023 to 56% in 2024.
Progress has stalled, and the margin is narrowing, if anything, ever so slightly. Nvidia guided a non-GAAP gross margin of 71% for the current quarter, just below the consensus estimate of 72%. The company has said the margin will widen again once new products like Blackwell reach the market"
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CORRELATION - BABA - HSTECH - NASDAQ – SOX - 02-26-25
And the Deepseek winners are...
Performance since Deepseek "entered" markets. From the top: BABA +61%, HSTECH +28%, NASDAQ -3%, SOX -8%.
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CORRELATION - THE NEW LAG-7
02-25-25
| | | 3- SENTIMENT: Fear-Greed, Bull-Bear, Over-Bought/Over-Sold, Shorting, Put-Calls, Risk Appetite Indicator | | |
NEW--1- SENTIMENT - MORGAN STANLEY SENTIMENT INDEX
03-19-25
EARLY SIGNS OF TURNING POSITIVE
Morgan Stanley Market sentiment indicator turned positive
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NEW--2- SENTIMENT - FUND MANAGER SURVEY - 03-19-25
This month’s decline in BofA's FMS investor sentiment is the largest since Mar’20, and the 7th largest in the past 24 years, only surpassed by extreme bear sentiment observed around major market shocks (Aug’07, May’10, Aug’11, Mar’20). (Hartnett)
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THIS WEEK'S POSTS
(Going Down)
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SENTIMENT - DIFFERENT MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS
03-12-25
Trump’s economic policies are altering investor sentiment, driving market volatility, prompting a shift to defensive strategies in U.S. equities, and creating an environment fraught with uncertainty.
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SENTIMENT - NET BULLISH SENTIMENT
03-12-25
With sentiment nearing extreme bearish levels—often linked to market bottoms—this could be laying the groundwork for a reflexive rally rather than signaling the start of a downturn.
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SENTIMENT - AAII BULL-BEAR SPREAD
03-11-25
Sentiment took a sharp bearish turn this month, reaching levels not seen since the onset of the 2022 hiking cycle. Whether SPX, UST or Crude, investors are all leaning on the same side of the boat...
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PRIOR WEEK'S POSTS
(Going Down)
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SENTIMENT - NET BULLISH - 03-05-25
Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index - With sentiment nearing extreme bearish levels—typically associated with market bottoms—we may be seeing a good foundation for a March rally rather than the start of a downturn
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SENTIMENT – PUTS - 03-04-25
Here we go - PUT love is back - The crowd continues to hate puts at local market highs, and tend to love puts at local market lows. Let's see how this one plays out...
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SENTIMENT – CNN FEAR-GREED
03-04-25
Extremely extreme fear. We haven't seen this much fear in a very long time!
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SENTIMENT – CNN FEAR-GREED
02-28-25
| | 4- FUND FLOWS - SECTORS, GLOBAL MARKETS, ETFs, FUND MANAGERS, HEDGE FUNDS, REBALANCING, ROTATION & POSITIONING | |
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NEW--1- FLOWS - POSITIONING
03-19-25
SYSTEMIC EQUITY POSITIONING
Systematic equity positioning has dropped to the 24th percentile, indicating a increasingly cautious approach.
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NEW--2- FLOWS - EUROPEAN EQUITIES
03-19-25
The last four weeks of inflows into European equities are in total the largest since 2015
By some measures, the inflows into Europe have been historically large. The last four weeks of flows into European equities are in total the largest we have seen since 2015. This is meaningful given the high degree of optimism about Europe at the time. US equities only started to see outflows last week, and in small amounts.
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NEW--3- FLOWS - EUROPEAN STOCKS
03-19-25
ETFs show massive selling of US stocks...going into buying European stocks
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THIS WEEK'S POSTS
(Going Down)
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NEW--4- FLOWS - POSITIONING - SYSTEMATIC MACRO STRATEGIES
03-19-25
Positioning has become clearer, but...
1. On the systematic deleveraging, systematic strategies aggregate exposure is still in the 60th %ile (5y), versus ~40% ile in Aug ’24 when de-leveraging stopped.
2. On retail, there are no signs of broad retail capitulation. But retail did not lend any support to the market with yesterday the largest day of net retail supply across single stocks and ETFs in 2 weeks.
3. On Equity L/S funds, US L/S funds nets were at 43%, the 1st %-tile over the last 12m and 30th percentile vs. the past 5 years, while gross leverage was at 209% (latest per the HF daily flows note), the 90% percentile over the last 12 months, so still quite elevated.
The positioning is now much cleaner than before .... but it’s not all clear yet!
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PRIOR WEEK POSTS
(Continued)
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FLOWS - ETF & MUTUAL FUNDS
03-12-25
Investors continue to show a strong appetite for U.S. money market funds as a safe and attractive option amid ongoing market volatility and high short-term interest rates.
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FLOWS - EQUITIES - US v ROW
03-10-25
MORE ROOM - US vs ROW has reversed...but the gap could shrink much more.
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CORRELATIONS - SPX v EU's FSX5E
03-10-25
Too fast and exaggerated rotation to the EU market??
| | 5- INDICATORS - FCI, Buybacks, Volatility, Seasonality, Breadth, Beats/Misses, Funding Spreads, Margin Debt | |
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NEW--1- INDICATORS - BUYBACK
03-19-25
During blackout, companies are not allowed to enter discretionary orders.
GS estimates it reduces buying by around 30%.
Enough to matter
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INDICATORS - MASSIVE LONG v SHORT GAMMA ROTATION
03-12-25
The "Stabilizer" is gone
The change from dealers running long gamma to now running short gamma has been massive.
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INDICATORS - S&P 500 MARGIN DEBT
02-26-25
Margin debt boosts market gains as investors leverage their positions to increase buying power.
A reliable warning sign for reducing portfolio risk occurs when margin balances drop below the 12-month
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BUYBACK AUTHORIZATIONS
On the authorization front, we see 2025 YTD authorizations stand at $102.9B, small up vs last year, but still "room to grow" to take out that 2021 record. Active week for new repurchase authorizations. We saw 21 programs authorized this week for $42.0B.
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INDICATORS - BEATS / MISSES
02-18-25
Resilience - Sales and EPS beats show strong margin resilience.
| | | 1- RISK: Premia, ERP, Leverage, Volatility VIX, VVIX, MOVE, Cash Levels, Funding Spreads, Cash Levels | |
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NEW--1- FMS CASH LEVELS
03-19-12
A SELL SIGNAL
Magnificent 7 - 20%,
Nasdaq -14%,
S&P 500 -9%,
... ACWI -5% since BofA's great cash sell signal was triggered in mid December.
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SOVEREIGN CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS
03-12-12
The March 15th government shutdown continues to loom and the main place we are seeing exposure to this risk is in USA sovereign credit risk.
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RISK APPETITE 03-12-25
Investor risk appetite in the U.S. equity market has continued to decline in March, driven by a worsening economic outlook, fiscal and political uncertainties, and concerns about Federal Reserve policies.
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LEVERAGED ETF SHRINKAGE
03-11-12
Total AUM of 100B at 96%tile
Falling Quickly!
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CASH LEVELS
03-11-12
US EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS
Cash as a % of total assets is hovering at 20-yr lows.
| | | 2- EARNINGS: Earnings Per Share, Profits, Margins | |
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NEW--1- EARNINGS - S&P 500
03-19-25
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS
Consensus earnings estimates have been reduced more than usual for first quarters, primarily due to the direct impacts of a stronger dollar and tariffs, rather than a broad economic slowdown.
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NEW--2- EARNINGS
FWD EPS v ANNUAL RoC
03-1925
Forward EPS YoY % Change vs. S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change
Corporate earnings’ annual changes are often reflected in market performance. Should the U.S. economy cool down in 2025, we may observe a downturn in earnings growth, which could translate to more modest market gains.
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EARLY SIGNS OF EMERGING DOWNWARD TREND IN EARNINGS
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EARNINGS - Earnings Revisions Breadth
03-12-25
Still a wide gap down - There is still a wide gap relative to earnings revisions breadth.
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EARNINGS – Peaked
03-12-25
Likely peaked S&P 500 NTM EPS growth has likely peaked for now based on revisions breadth.
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EARNINGS – CONSENSUS EPS GROWTH ESTIMATES - 03-05-25
Despite economic uncertainties, consensus estimates forecast a robust 10% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share for 2025, suggesting resilience in the corporate sector.
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EARNINGS – REVISIONS - 02-26-25
Earnings also hitting a DOGE ball
"Earnings revisions have rolled over due to lagged effect of higher rates, a stronger dollar, as well as potential growth headwinds from tariffs, immigration, and Doge."
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EARNINGS GROWTH - 02-11-25
Mega-cap tech companies are expected to hold their market leadership, though their dominance could decline over time as EPS growth slows.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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CONSENSUS EPS GROWTH ESTIMATES 02-05-25
Consensus estimates project a 12% growth in S&P 500 earnings per share for 2025, indicating continued momentum in the corporate earnings landscape.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
| | 3- VALUATIONS: PE, Sales-Book, Price-Book | |
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VALUATIONS - CAPE – 023-19-25
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History
Even after the recent sell-off, tech and S&P 500 valuations continue to be high relative to historical standards, leading to uncertainty about their future performance.
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VALUATIONS - CAPE – 02-26-25
Historic high except for one other time - the Dotcom Bubble when valuations completely decoupled!
Markets are rotating out of US because of excess PE's with 12 month forward earnings and margins now appearing to have peaked for the Mag-7
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VALUATIONS – PRICE-to-SALES
02-19-25
PRICEY - S&P 500 price-to-sales ratio hits highest level since the Peak of the Dot Com Bubble
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U.S. EQUITIES v REST OF THE WORLD
12-Month Forward PE Ratios - 02-12-25
Given the current high valuation of U.S. equities, diversification, both geographically and across sectors, it remains a critical strategy for managing risk and maintaining portfolio stability.
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SHILLER CAPE PE RATIO - 02-12-25
While a high CAPE ratio doesn’t necessarily lead to an immediate market correction, it often correlates with lower returns in the future.
Topdown Charts
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MARKET IS AT ATH OVER-VALUATION
The median analyst expectation is for another 10% rise in the S&P this year, quite audacious when you consider the index is up over 50% over the past two years. Stock allocations are at highs, with the household, financial and foreign sectors at record or near-record overweights versus financial assets. The market, based on a broad swathe of measures, has NEVER BEEN AS OVERVALUED!
| | | 4- YIELD CURVES: All Types (FFR, 90, 1Y, 2Y 5Y, 10Y, 30Y) Corporate (HY, IG) | |
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SPX v HYG - 03-05-25
High yield credit, which usually leads stocks, has NOT broken down in any significant fashion.
This suggests that stocks could catch a major bid if they can look past the threat of tariffs and a trade war to the fact that underlying macro conditions have not worsened much if at all.
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10Y-FED FUNDS RATE
This Yield Curve chart of the 10Y UST Yield minus the Fed Funds Rate is something we discovered during the Dotcom Bubble. It warned and shielded us quite effectively during the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Presently on the right you can see how it has been drawn out by Covid but has recently arrived at the point of cautioning us again. The central panel reflects the S&P 500 and the bottom panel the MATASII proprietary Momentum indicator which are also aligning as in the prior era of warning.
The damage in the economy and markets can be expected to occur when the Fed and financial markets begin readjusting to protracted periods of inverted yield curves.
| | 5- METRICS: Buffett Indicator, Liquidity | |
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GLOBAL LIQUIDITY PROXY
(CENTRAL BANKS BS)
VERSUS
S&P 500
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PROFITS AS A % OF GDP
CHART RIGHT: US domestic corporate profit margins have burst way above their usual 15% maximum as ‘Greedflation’ has taken hold. This is remarkable, because never in history have corporate margins risen when faced with sharply rising unit costs – until now?
| | 6- PERFORMANCE: Q-o-Q, Y-o-Y | |
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PERFORMANCE - S&P 500
03-11-25
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson predicts the S&P 500 will dip to around 5,500 in the first half of the year due to tariff impacts and reduced fiscal spending, before rebounding to 6,500 by year-end.
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PERFORMANCE - CHINA TECH
02-26-25
Performance since Deepseek "entered" markets.
From the top:
- BABA +61%,
- HSTECH +28%,
- NASDAQ -3%,
- SOX -8%.
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PERFORMANCE - GLOBAL v US
02-26-25
YTD Equity Return vs. U.S.
In 2025, the relative outperformance of international stocks compared to U.S. equities has underscored the benefits of diversification for investors so far.
| | | 7- ECONOMICS: GDP Growth, Recessions | | INCREASING RISK OF A LATE 2025 US RECESSION | |
Q1 2025 GDPNow OUTLOOK -2.4%
SHOCKINGLY the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4% on March 6, up from -2.8 percent on March 3.
After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 4.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -3.57 percentage points to -3.84 percentage points.
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GOLDMAN SACHS - DOWNGRADES 2025 to GDP 1.7% FROM 2.4%
Goldman Sachs downgraded their 2025 US GDP growth forecast from 2.4% at the start of the year to 1.7% now (both on a Q4/Q4 basis). This is their first below-consensus forecast in 2½ years. The main reason for the downgrade is that their trade policy assumptions have become considerably more adverse and the administration is managing expectations towards tariff-induced near-term economic weakness.
They now see the average US tariff rate rising by 10pp this year, twice our previous forecast and about five times the increase seen in the first Trump administration.
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ECONOMICS – GDPNOW
02-26-25
GDPNow’s initial estimates in any given quarter can be choppy, but the model is settling in on a 2.3 percent real growth rate for Q1 to date. That is right on top of Q4 2024’s 2.3 percent, but below Q3’s 3.1 percent.
Should GDPNow’s estimates continue to decline (the trend thus far suggests that is possible), markets will likely see it as validating their concerns about both economic growth and corporate earnings.
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ECONOMICS – RECESSION
02-19-25
A Recession? Forget about it ... at least that is consensus!
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TEMPORARY HELP SERVICES v REAL GDP 7 US RECESSIONS
- Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -6.13% YoY in January.
- The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex.
- Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do not always guarantee one, as other economic factors can impact the labor market and job growth.
- However, when Temporary Help Services Jobs were below -3.5% YoY in 2001, 2007 and 2020, a recession was on the horizon in the United States.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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