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MARKET PERSPECTIVE
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
You Are Missing our Subscriber Mid-Week MARKET LAB - You Are Working with only 1/2 the info?
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EUROPE OVERBOUGHT - US OVERSOLD!
DEFENSIVE ROTATION COMPLETE - TIME FOR A BOUNCE??
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THE CYCLICAL v DEFENSIVE ROTATION
03-06-25
We updated the chart above which we highlighted previously (Last Weeks Chart Link) to shown how quickly the markets have rotated to Defensives versus Cyclicals.
RSI suggests the bottom is in, Sentiment says maybe not yet though the average stock is off 30% from highs. The vol Term structures (chart right) suggest we may initially get a bounce but the lows are likely to be retested before heading higher. The markets are generally oversold and the all-important CTA community has de-risked, but certain aspects of sentiment in general, and gross leverage among hedge funds in particular, make the overall tactical backdrop messy and absolutely not a clear-cut signal.
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JPM's head trader Elan Luger:
"the bottom line for me: yes we are technically oversold. Yes we are very close to a bounce (I like Financials specifically alts best for a long trade + Mag 7 + Utilities)…but we are in a new regime that warrants a sell rally mentality more than a buy dip mentality"
CHART RIGHT:
The gap between strategists' SPX target and SPX is very wide. Market too bearish, or strategists too bullish?
Maybe the gap shrinks, from both "sides"...
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
THESE WEEKS INDEX (See Prior Weeks for Links to Real Time Live "Grey" area charts below)
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1 - EQUITY MARKETS
CONTROL PACKAGE
S&P 500 (MULTIPLE DEGREES)
RUSSELL 2000 (IWM)
DJIA
MATASII BANKING INDEX
MATASII FINANCIALS INDEX
MAGNIFICENT 7
CONTROL PACKAGE
NVDA
GOOG
META
AAPL
TSLA
MSFT
AMZN
FOREIGN EXCHANGES (SITUATIONAL SELECTIONS)
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GLOBAL
2 - COMMODITIES
CRB COMMODITY INDEX
GOLD
SILVER
3 - CURRENCY MARKET
DXY
4 - BOND MARKET
CONTROL PACKAGE
TNX
5 - CREDIT MARKET
YIELD CURVE
JNK (HY)
MARKET MONITOR (SUBSCRIBERS ONLY)
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NEW IMAGE CHANGES ARE LABELED WITH A BLUE TRIPLE ***STAR***
OLD IMAGE CHANGES ARE LABELED WITH A RED TRIPLE ***STAR***
OLD IMAGES REFLECT MINIMAL CHANGE, but Narrative is ALWAYS updated.
REMEMBER: SIMPLY CLICK YOUR LIVE SUBSCRIBER LINK TO SEE THE LATEST UPDATED LIVE CHART.
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CONTROL PACKAGE
There are FOUR charts we have outlined in prior chart packages that we will continue to watch closely as a CURRENT "control set":
- THE S&P 500 (CHART LINK)
- THE DJIA (CHART LINK)
- THE RUSSELL 2000 Russell 2000 IWM ETF (CHART LINK),
- THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN WITHOUT THE MATASII CROSS - (LINK)
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IT WAS ANOTHER TUMULTUOUS WEEK!!
A 10% correction in 20 days, the 5th fastest correction in the last 75 years (fastest ever was 8 days during the onset of Covid – 2/27/20)
THE TRIGGERING SEQUENCE
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VALUATIONS: Concern with Mag-7 sustaining rate of sales growth and historic level of margins
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ROTATION: Rotation begins to S&P 500 493 and cheaper Euro and European bank stocks.
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DOLLAR WEAKNESS: Weakening USD with falling US stocks forces European to chase DAX & Military Build up stocks
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GROWTH: US Economic growth becomes an increasing concern primarily on the worry of Tariffs and Trade Wars.
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RECESSION: A late 2025 US Recession increasing;y on investors radar
The Prediction Markets (chart above right) were early and highly accurate in predicting a Trump victory. They are rapidly seeing the betting increase for a Recession ahead!
GROWTH => STAGFLATION => RECESSION
THIS IS NOT THE START OF A BEAR MARKET FOR US STOCKS
STILL MOST LIKELY ONLY A INTERMEDIATE DEGREE "WXYXZ" CORRECTION
More pain may be in stocks (after a bounce) as the current “down-in-yields/down-in-stocks” move is ominous, and very 2000, 2002, 2008. Buy SPX @ ~5300 in late Spring
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REASONS TO CONTINUE TO BE FEARFUL:
- Growth Concerns (payrolls + ISM manuf.. follows weak confidence readings)
- Tariff Fatigue magnified by thematic re-pricing in AI
- Global Complexity (Ger & Fra Yields breaking out + China higher again on JD, BABA QwQ-32B AI Model)
- Technicals Weak (SPX flirting with 200dma 5732, counterbalanced by most major indices & single stock bellwethers approaching technically "oversold" levels)
- Systematic Supply (CTAs have sold almost $60bn of US equity delta in the last week, ~30bn SPX)
- Positioning Elevated (HF Gross Leverage rose +1.1 pts this week and sitting in 100th percentile vs past 1-year // Nets remained ~flat and in 47th percentile vs past 1-year)
- Liquidity very challenged making new lows
- LO Risk Reduction (seen in relative out-performers such as HCare, Utilities, & Semis)
- Consumer Woes (think: ANF, FL, ROST, VSCO, Cruise lines, etc.)
- Poor Seasonality (bounce set up for 3/14)
| | ***S&P 500 MONTHLY - POST GFC*** | |
CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - Price has decidedly broken away and below the red parabolic trend that has been in place since the 2008 GFC with one modification (a big one) for Covid.
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - Momentum in the bottom panel has broken the major support shown by the black dotted trendline & marked by the red arrow. The next level of support is much further below.
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MARKET LAB
Being bearish on US mega-cap tech carries higher risk than being bullish. Timing is crucial — history shows that even correctly calling the 2000 tech bubble peak, but being early led to massive rallies against short positions (13% in one month, 31% in three, and 94% in six). ,While today’s market may not have the same upside, Shorting US tech still requires near-perfect timing.
OBSERVATION -
During the 2000 Dotcom Bubble the market also weakened near the March Quadruple Witch, but didn't fully start breaking down until September.
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
| | ***S&P 500 MONTHLY - 55 YA*** | |
CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - The S&P 500 has stayed comfortably within the Dome Top (in red) which is to be expected at a major top since they normally take an extended period of time to develop.
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - Momentum in the lower panel has offered consistent overhead resistance support (marked by the the major black dotted trend line & marked above the red arrow.
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MARKET LAB
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
- The best overall Elliott Wave count we can arrive at is a Triple Complex Combo labeled as a Primary WXYXZ
- This count shows itself as a Fractal in lower degree counts down to the Daily level (see S&P 500 charts below, as well as in other Equity Indexes, the MATASII Banking and Financial Indexes.
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - The S&P 500 was trading at the cash close Friday of 5638.93 up +117.40 (+2.13%) for the day but down significantly compared to last Friday's close at 5770.19 and Q1 highs.
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DMA - Price decidedly broke the important 200 DMA level finding temporary support at trend support levels shown below.
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - Momentum in the lower panel broke major support indicted by the black dashed trend line. Momentum found support at a lower support level marked by the red arrow.
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MARKET LAB
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
- The best overall Elliott Wave count we can arrive at is a Triple Complex Combo labeled as a Primary WXYXZ
- This count shows itself as a Fractal in lower degree counts down to the Daily level (see S&P 500 charts below, as well as in other Equity Indexes, the MATASII Banking and Financial Indexes.
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SPX CASH
CHART BELOW NOTES:
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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SPX cfd
NOTES - CHART BELOW:
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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NEW-- PATTERNS
03-14-25
SPX has come down quickly.
These "Convergence" lines have historically often been quite predictive!
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PATTERN – SPX
03-08-25
We have noticed similarities to the 2022 correction in markets. Yes, we will have bounces, but sometimes you should zoom out and look at longer term crosses. The post Covid bull started with the 50 day crossing the 100 day in Q32020. The 2022 bear went serious post the negative 50/100 day cross early in the year. The latest bull went aggressive as the positive 50/100 day cross occurred in early 2024. Note the that the negative 50/100 day crossed kicked in this week. (click to enlarge).
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CORRELATION - SPX v 20Y TLT - 03-07-25
SHOWTIME!!
Critical - SPY/TLT - Price Ratio v 200 DMA trendline.
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SENTIMENT - OVERSOLD - 03-08-25
The S&P went from overbought to extreme oversold in just eight trading days recently.
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***IWM - LONG iSHARE RUSSELL 2000 ETF - Daily***
MATASII CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - The IWM - LONG iShare Russell 2000 ETF was up Friday closing at 202.89 +4.79 (+2.42%) compared to closing last Friday at 205.95.
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DMA - Price broke through the 200 DMA support finding support at a long term support level marked by a large horizontal dashed black line in the Price chart below.
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - The IWM broke a major Proprietary Momentum Indicator support level (lower panel). That level appears to now be acting as overhead resistance marked by the red arrow.
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CORRELATION - 02-08-25
RUSSELL undervalued relative to S&P 500
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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PATTERN - 02-21-25
Russell put in a massive down candle, breaking slightly below the 200 day moving average and the longer term trend line. No bueno.
| | | RUSSELL TECH - The low quality tech stuff has been fading lately... | | | |
***DJIA - 240 MINUTE***
MATASII CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - The DJIA rose Friday closing at 41488.19 +674.62 (+1.65%) for the day.
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - In the bottom panel, the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator broke major support at the dashed orange trend line above the red arrow. This support level now appears to be offering overhead resistance.
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MARKET LAB
ELLIOTT WAVE COUNT
- The best overall Elliott Wave count we can arrive at is a Triple Complex Combo labeled as a Primary WXYXZ
- This count shows itself as a Fractal in lower degree counts down to the Daily level (see also S&P 500 charts as well as in other Equity Indexes, the MATASII Banking and Financial Indexes.
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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***THE MATASII BANK INDEX***
STRONG BANK EARNINGS & WEAKENING YIELDS PROPEL BANKS HIGHER
MATASII CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - The MATASII Bank Index rose Friday closing at 1357.40 +41.8 (+3.18%) for the day and down for the week compared to last Friday's close at 1398.93.
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DMA - tHE 200 DMA is now offering support
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - In the bottom panel, the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator broke major support shown by the dashed black trend line above the red arrow.
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MARKET LAB
Banks falling faster than the S&P 500 is "tell" indication of increased economic and financial stress!
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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MATASII BANK INDEX - ANALYTICS
THE EURO BANK INDEX CONTINUES TO OUTPERFORM
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PERFORMANCE - 02-17-25:
YTD: SX7E +20%, QQQ +5%, MAG +1%.
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PATTERN
European Banks have been matching Mag-7 performance!
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***THE MATASII FINANCIAL INDEX***
FINANCIAL MARKETS CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN MAG-7
MATASII CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - The MATASII Financial Index rose hard this week to close Friday at 2218.02 up 60.96 (+2.83%) for the day and down compared to last Friday's close at 2271.62.
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DMA - It appears the target is the 200 DMA which matches the bottom of the control channel.
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - In the bottom panel, the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator broke support at the major black dashed line trend line highlighted by the red arrow.
| | | Underperforming financials, banks and falling REITS are an early indication of increased economic and financial stress | | | |
YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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MATASII FINANCIAL INDEX - ANALYTICS
In one month these flows have reversed and fallen.
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FUND FLOWS
02-04-25
Fund flows to Financials surged to a 3-year high on the back of strong Q4 earnings reports.
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FUND FLOWS
02-02-25
Financial Mania - Biggest inflows to financials since Jan’ 22.
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CONTROL PACKAGE
- APPLE - AAPL - DAILY (CHART LINK)
- AMAZON - AMZN - DAILY (CHART LINK)
- META - META - DAILY (CHART LINK)
- GOOGLE - GOOG - DAILY (CHART LINK)
- NVIDIA - NVDA - DAILY (CHART LINK)
- MICROSOFT - MSFT - DAILY (CHART LINK)
- TESLA - TSLA - DAILY (CHART LINK)
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***MAGNIFICENT 7***
MATASII CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - The Mag-7 closed Friday at 1946.87 up +52.9 (+2.79%) for the week compared to last Friday when we closed at 2008.40.
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - Meanwhile the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator (lower panel) broke support level marked but held within its' rising trend channel marked by the red arrow.
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MARKET LAB
Consider that the typically high-performing S&P 500 technology sector lagged the broader index in January by the widest margin since 2016. Four of the Magnificent 7 have recently been trading below their 50-day moving averages, another bearish signal for traders. In addition, hedge funds are increasingly reducing gross exposures to these kinds of stocks for the first time in a year, while companies' insiders are selling shares at the highest rate since 2021, raising questions about the company's ability to achieve earnings targets and justify their lofty valuations. (Morgan Stanley)
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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NEW-- EARNING
03-14-25
Expect earnings conversion
Despite recent large earnings growth differences between the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the S&P 500, we now expect convergence
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PATTERNS - 02-28-25
MAG7 - YTD moves in "Mag 7":
TSLA -30% / NVDA - 11% / GOOGL -11% / MSFT -7% / AMZN -5% / AAPL -5%...META +12%
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CORRELATION
This chart makes the 2000 Dotcom Bubble look like a "minor warm-up"?
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***NVIDIA - NVDA - DAILY***
MATASII CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - NVDA pushed higher Friday closing at 121.67 up +6.09 (+5.27%), and up compared to last Friday at 112.69
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DMA - Price has broken well below the 200 DMA and with support being found with the lower trendline of the shorter term support channel.
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - The NVDA MATASII Momentum indicator finally found support at its lower support level (black dashed line) and has been rallying from it.
Prior Longer Term Note:
- At some point, the major unfilled gaps (at much lower levels) must be filled. We anticipate a likely test of the 200 DMA in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025.
- NVDA therefore may no longer become a Short to Intermediate Long Term hold, but rather a position trading stock, as other competitors enter the space, force margins and the earnings growth rate contracts.
NOTE RIGHT: Analyst Rating to the right are always too positive and delayed. History suggests the trick is to BEGIN reducing positions as soon as ANYONE changes their rating to Hold or Lower.
5 OUT OF 66 IS A CONCERN
(We use the ratings for Mag-7 Only.)
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MARKET LAB
AS GOES NVDA SO GOES THE MAG-7!
AS GOES THE MAG-7 SO GOES THE MARKET!
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With a market cap of $3.61tn and nearly as big as the entire DAX and CAC combined, earnings are going to be a big event. To give you a scale for their astonishing earnings trajectory over such a short period of time, at the recent lows in Jan 2023 Nvidia earned $4.4bn over the preceded last 12m. However, today the consensus will see them earn $61.4bn over the last 12 months. By the time we hit 2027, they are expected to earn $118.1bn LTM.
The growth in NVDA’s forward revenues and operating earnings have both been remarkable, as has its ability to maintain a forward profit margin north of 55%. Nvidia’s forward P/E of 32.6 is certainly higher than the S&P 500’s forward earnings multiple of 21.6. But it looks reasonable relative to the company’s expected forward earnings growth of 53.1%.
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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CHART RIGHT-- NVDA - 01-29-25
Fighting the 200 DMA
NVDA is trading right on the 200 day moving average as of writing. Massive moves, especially if you consider the changes in market cap. This is not how strong leaders behave.
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CONTROL PACKAGE
- Invesco DB Agricultural Fund (DBA)
- VanEck Agribusiness (MOO)
- Food Producers (FT350 Food Producers - NMX45)
- Teucrium Agricultural Fund ETV (TAGS)
- Advisory Shares Restaurant ETF (EATZ)
- Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ)
- Teucrium Wheat Fund ETV (WEAT)
- Teucrium Corn Fund ETV (CORN)
- Teucrium Soybean Fund ETV (SOTB)
- Teucrium Sugar Fund ETV (CANE)
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***CRB COMMODITY INDEX***
CHART NOTES:
- The overall Commodity Indexes, as measured by the CRB Commodity, reflect a Corrective / Consolidation is presently nearing completion.
- However, many of the individual sectors (not shown here) have already completed the Corrective / Consolidation and broken higher over the last 30-60 days.
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01/18/25: Rising global PMIs = Long commodities
Got Commodities?
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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COMMODITIES - MATERIALS
02-20-25
HFs net bought US Materials at the fastest pace since February 2021, driven entirely by long buys.
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DR COPPER - 02-20-25
"If the aggressive fiscal actions taken by Trump 2.0 and the Chinese government improve global economic growth, that might increase business and consumer confidence and spending. We’ve been watching for signs of this in copper prices, which have popped 14.9% ytd."
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***GOLD***
CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - Gold fell with Friday's post-market trading at 2984 down -4.67 (-0.16) for the day, but well up from last Friday's close of ~2850.
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3 SIGMA BOMAR - Gold once again back at its' 3 Standard Deviation Bomar Band and a new high.
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - Momentum found support at a lower MATASII Momentum Indicator trend line shown in the lower panel and marked by the black dashed trendline before bouncing above a small degree overhead resistance trendline (as shown by the red arrow).
GOLD IS DUE FOR A CORRECTIVE / CONSOLIDATION!
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CORRELATION - 03-07-25
GOLD versus Fair Value Model
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SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS
- Gold has recently been supported and further boosted by the PBoC resuming Gold purchases in November after a six-month halt.
- We note that ETF buying however has been surprisingly weak over the past four years, as shown by the 2nd chart above.
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YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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NEW-- GOLD
CENTRAL BANK BUYING
03-14-25
The longer term gold Central Bank chart
Hunger for gold is huge.
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NEW-- GOLD UPSIDE RISK
03-15-25
Goldman Sachs
"We see upside risk to our $3,100 end-2025 base case and to our $3,100-3,300 forecast range because US policy uncertainty may support investor demand, and because we believe that central bank gold buying will remain structurally higher than before the freezing of Russian central bank reserves in 2022. We think this is the case even after a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire given the freezing of assets established a significant precedent."
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GOLD - 02-14-25
Gold Prices in 2024 U.S. Dollars - The real (inflation-adjusted) price of gold has reached a new all-time high, driven by several factors including U.S. tariff uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from global central banks. - Deutsche Bank
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GOLD/CPI RATIO - 02-12-25
The inflation-adjusted price of gold has reached a new high, breaking its previous record from January 1980. This reflects the ongoing devaluation of the U.S. dollar, global economic uncertainties and strong demand from central banks.
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***SILVER***
MATASII CHART NOTES:
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PRICE - Silver closed Friday at 33.234 down -0.031 (-0.09%) for the day, but up for the week compared to last Friday's close at 32.506.
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DMA - Silver broken above all its' Moving Averages 21 / 50 / 100 /200 DMA to its upper Bomar Band.
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MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - The MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator shows there is more upward potential before touching overhead resistance.
| | 02-17-25: Silver often comes late to the party, but when it finally gets there it can be an unstoppable hedonist. | | |
YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART
Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK
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SILVER - 02-17-25
We are seeing the same dynamics with silver as we are seeing with gold. There is a shortage of deliverable physical metal in London after years of EM central-bank hoarding.
Comex silver warehouses in the US are filling up while stocks in London are falling.
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THIS WEEK'S MARKET MONITOR | |
NOTICE Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. MATASII.com does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.
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