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EURO-STOXX-50, DAX & GOLD HIT HIGHS

US DOLLAR WEAKENS

EUROPE ON SALE

GLOBAL MONEY TAKES FULL ADVANTAGE OF A WEAK EURO

AN EXPLODING GERMAN DAX: The DAX is the German stock market index consisting of the 40 major German blue chip companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It is a total return index. Recently we have been witnessing a DAX upside panic buying versus a SPX’s sideways snooze. There is more than a weak Euro driving this lift (German Elections?)! We can't recall when DAX was trading this much above the 200 day moving average. The DAX ended the week on almost a high note. RSI remains at very overbought levels.

CHART ABOVE: The last time the EuroStoxx50 printed a new all-time high

was 14th March 2000...very nearly 25 years go!!

The DAX has been showing the spot up, volatility up behavior over the past weeks. This is usually what you see when people are forced to chase longs, expressing views via upside options exposure. DAX volatility is starting to show that NASDAQ whale feature. The gap between DAX "VIX" and VIX widened further as pure upside panic in DAX plays out. 

We can't recall when DAX was trading this much above the 200 day moving average. The DAX ended the week on almost a high note. RSI remains at very overbought levels.

CHART RIGHT: FLOWS - European equity flows turned positive in January, with $3.7B of inflows – the highest level since February 2023.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

INDEX

NEW IMAGE CHANGES ARE LABELED WITH A BLUE TRIPLE ***STAR***

OLD IMAGE CHANGES ARE LABELED WITH A RED TRIPLE ***STAR***

OLD IMAGES REFLECT MINIMAL CHANGE, but Narrative is ALWAYS updated.

REMEMBER: SIMPLY CLICK YOUR LIVE SUBSCRIBER LINK TO SEE THE LATEST UPDATED LIVE CHART.

1- US EQUITY MARKETS

CONTROL PACKAGE



There are FIVE charts we have outlined in prior chart packages that we will continue to watch closely as a CURRENT "control set":

1. The S&P 500 (CHART LINK)
2. The DJIA (CHART LINK)
3. The Russell 2000 through the IWM ETF (CHART LINK)
4. The MAGNIFICENT SEVEN (CHART ABOVE WITH MATASII CROSS - LINK)
5. Nvidia (NVDA) (CHART LINK)

CHART NOTES:

• The S&P 500 was trading at the cash close Friday at 6114.62 down -0.46 (-0.01%) compared to last Friday's close at 6040 for a fairly good week.
• Price is now trading above the support levels marked by the 21- 50 DMA levels which price has been tied to recently.
• Momentum is also now trading above the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator (middle panel) support level at the black dotted trend line, marked by the red arrow.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

***IWM - LONG iSHARE RUSSELL 2000 ETF - Daily***

CHART RIGHT: RUSSELL TECH - The low quality tech stuff has been fading lately..

CHART NOTES:

• The IWM - LONG iShare Russell 2000 ETF was mostly flat for the week closing up Friday at 225.97 -0.17 (-0.08%) compared to close last Friday 226.00.
• The IWM,has found overhead resistance once again at the 100 DMA - 50 DMA.
• The IWM appears to be glued to support at the Proprietary Momentum Indicator 's major support (lower panel) shown by the orange descending dashed line marked by the red arrow.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

STRONG BANK EARNINGS & WEAKENING YIELDS PROPEL BANKS HIGHER

CHART NOTES:

• The MATASII Bank Index rose this week closing up Friday at 1602.73 +18.48 (+1.17%) for the day compared to last Friday at 1597.47.
• In the bottom panel, the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator found overhead resistance at the dashed orange trend line highlighted by the red arrow.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

FINANCIAL MARKETS CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN MAG-7

***THE MATASII FINANCIAL INDEX***

CHART RIGHT TOP: 02-04-25 - Fund flows to Financials surged to a 3-year high on the back of strong Q4 earnings reports.

CHART RIGHT: 02-02-25 - Financial Mania - Biggest inflows to financials since Jan’ 22.

CHART NOTES:

• The MATASII Financial Index fell this week to close Friday at 2434.79, up +10.19 (+0.45%) for the day compared to last Friday at 2467.11.
• In the bottom panel, the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator found support at the black dashed line trend line highlighted by the red arrow.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

CONTROL PACKAGE

1. APPLE - AAPL - DAILY (CHART LINK)
2. AMAZON - AMZN - DAILY (CHART LINK)
3. META - META - DAILY (CHART LINK)
4. GOOGLE - GOOG - DAILY (CHART LINK)
5. NVIDIA - NVDA - DAILY (CHART LINK)
6. MICROSOFT - MSFT - DAILY (CHART LINK)
7. TESLA - TSLA - DAILY (CHART LINK)

***MAGNIFICENT 7***

CHART RIGHT: This chart makes the 2000 Dotcom Bubble look like a "minor warm-up"?

Consider that the typically high-performing S&P 500 technology sector lagged the broader index in January by the widest margin since 2016. Four of the Magnificent 7 have recently been trading below their 50-day moving averages, another bearish signal for traders. In addition, hedge funds are increasingly reducing gross exposures to these kinds of stocks for the first time in a year, while company insiders are selling shares at the highest rate since 2021, raising questions about the companies’ ability to achieve earnings targets and justify their lofty valuations. (Morgan Stanley)

CHART BELOW: It was a big week for Mega-Cap tech earnings, but they somewhat disappointed as Mag7 stocks are down over $625 billion in market cap in the last two weeks, (with only META and NVDA up this week). The chart below shows the weekly trading percentage changes of each of the Mag-7 since August 2024.

CHART NOTES:

• The Mag-7 was up for the week. The Mag-7 closed Friday at 2299.94 up +9.832 (+0.43%) compared to last Friday when we closed at 2259.65.
• Meanwhile the MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator (lower panel) continues flat.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

***NVIDIA - NVDA - DAILY***

AS GOES NVDA SO GOES THE MAG-7!

AS GOES THE MAG-7 SO GOES THE MARKET!

With a market cap of $3.61tn and nearly as big as the entire DAX and CAC combined, earnings are going to be a big event. To give you a scale for their astonishing earnings trajectory over such a short period of time, at the recent lows in Jan 2023 Nvidia earned $4.4bn over the preceded last 12m. However, today the consensus will see them earn $61.4bn over the last 12 months. Then, by the time we hit 2027, they are expected to earn $118.1bn LTM.

The growth in NVDA’s forward revenues and operating earnings have both been remarkable, as has its ability to maintain a forward profit margin north of 55%. Nvidia’s forward P/E of 32.6 is certainly higher than the S&P 500’s forward earnings multiple of 21.6. But it looks reasonable relative to the company’s expected forward earnings growth of 53.1%.

NEW-- NVDA - 01-29-25

CHART RIGHT ABOVE: Fighting the 200 DMA.

NVDA is trading right on the 200 day moving average as of writing. Massive moves, especially if you consider the changes in market cap. This is not how strong leaders behave.

CHART NOTES:

• NVDA pushed higher closing Friday at 138.85 up +3.56 (2.63%) compared to last Friday at 129.84.
• NVDA pushed through the 50-100 DMA resistance levels.
• The NVDA MATASII Momentum indicator (black dashed line) in the lower panel offered overhead resistance.

Longer Term Note:

• At some point, the major unfilled gaps (at much lower levels) must be filled. We anticipate a likely test of the 200 DMA in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025.
• NVDA therefore may no longer become a Short to Intermediate Long Term hold, but rather a position trading stock, as other competitors enter the space, force margins and the earnings growth rate contracts. 

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

***GOOGLE - GOOG - DAILY***

CHART NOTES:

• GOOG closed mostly flat for the week on Friday at 186.87 down -1.01 (-0.54%) compared to 187.14 last Friday.
• Support was found at the MATASII Momentum Indicator's lower support level which was slightly broken and marked by the red arrow.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

***META - META - DAILY***

CHART NOTES:

• Meta was up further from last Friday's close at 714.52 to close this Friday at 736.67 +8.11 (+1.11%).
• The lower two panels reflect META is now pushing through its overhead RSI and MATASII Momentum Indicator Resistance shown by the red arrows.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

***APPLE - AAPL - DAILY***

CHART RIGHT: Does Apple have the cash to sustain its highly aggressive stock buyback program which has been supporting its Price per Share?

CHART NOTES:

• AAPL rose this week closing Friday at 244.604 +3.07 (+1.27%) compared to last Friday close of 227.63.
• AAPL broke the 50 DMA overhead resistance level.
• AAPL is nearing the overhead resistance MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator trend line, marked by the red arrow in the middle panel.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

***TESLA - TSLA - DAILY***

CHART RIGHT: TSLA's Intermediate high may have been put in at its recent high.

CHART NOTES:

• TSLA closed down slightly Friday at 355.84 -0.10 (-0.03%).
• Price found support at the 100 DMA before retracing some of the prior fall-off.
• TSLA's MATASII Momentum Indicator shown by the orange dotted trend line in the middle panel and marked by the red arrow offered initial support.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:   SUBSCRIBER LINK

***MICROSOFT - MSFT - DAILY***

CHART NOTES:

• MSFT closed Friday down slightly at 408.43 -2.11 (-0.51%).
• The MATASII Momentum Indicator shown by the orange dotted trend line in the middle panel and marked by the red arrow is currently offering support at this price level.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

***AMAZON - AMZN - DAILY***

CHART NOTES:

• AMZN closed down slightly Friday at 228.68 -1.69 (-0.93%).
• The 50 DMA offered support.
• The MATASII Momentum Indicator is currently pointed down midway between Resistance and Support levels.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

THIS WEEK'S MARKET MONITOR

COMMODITIES

***CRB COMMODITY INDEX - MONTHLY***

CHART RIGHT - 01/18/25

Rising global PMIs = Long commodities > Got Commodities?

CHART NOTES:

• The overall Commodity Indexes, as measured by the CRB Commodity, reflect a Corrective / Consolidation is presently nearing completion.
• However, many of the individual sectors (not shown here) have already completed the Corrective / Consolidation and broken higher over the last 30-60 days.

• Examples:
• Invesco DB Agricultural Fund (DBA)
• VanEck Agribusiness (MOO)
• Food Producers (FT350 Food Producers - NMX45)
• Teucrium Agricultural Fund ETV (TAGS)
• Advisory Shares Restaurant ETF (EATZ)
• Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ)
• Teucrium Wheat Fund ETV (WEAT)
• Teucrium Corn Fund ETV (CORN)
• Teucrium Soybean Fund ETV (SOTB)
• Teucrium Sugar Fund ETV (CANE)

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK 

***GOLD***

CHART BELOW: Gold/CPI Ratio - 02-12-25

The inflation-adjusted price of gold has reached a new high, breaking its previous record from January 1980. This reflects the ongoing devaluation of the U.S. dollar, global economic uncertainties, and strong demand from central banks.

CHART RIGHT: NEW-- GOLD - 02-12-25

Gold is putting in a massive shooting star candle so far today. You need to watch these type of candles very carefully after an asset has moved sharply, as it could be the first indication of a short term trend reversal.

NOTES:

• Gold has recently been supported and further boosted by the PBoC resuming Gold purchases in November after a six-month halt. 
• We note that ETF buying however has been surprisingly weak over the past four years, as shown by the 2nd chart above.

CHART BELOW:

NEW-- CORRELATIONS - 02-15-25 - "Weird" in gold land - The latest melt up in gold started just when the DXY reversed in January. Noteworthy is that gold is putting in the biggest down candle in a while, despite the DXY selling off further. Chart shows gold vs DXY inv. 

CHART BELOW:

• Gold continues to push to new highs this week with Friday's post-market trading at ~2882.0859 down -45.22 (-1.54%).
• Gold has finally broken out from the triangle trap it was in, (the triangle shown to the left above).
• Gold also broke through its important MATASII Momentum Indicator, as shown in the lower panel and marked by the red arrow and orange dashed trend line.
• Gold is at the 3 Standard Deviation Bomar Band which is always a warning signal!!!

GOLD IS DUE FOR A CORRECTIVE / CONSOLIDATION!

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK 

***SILVER***

CHART NOTES

• After a good week, Silver closed Friday down slightly to 32.11 -0.22 (-0.60%).
• The MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator has been rising but flattened towards the end of the week.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above: SUBSCRIBER LINK 

"CURRENCY" MARKET

CONTROL PACKAGE

There are TEN charts we have outlined in prior chart packages, which we will continue to watch closely as a CURRENT Control Set:

1. US DOLLAR -DXY - MONTHLY (CHART LINK)
2. US DOLLAR - DXY - DAILY (CHART LINK)
3. GOLD - DAILY (CHART LINK)
4. GOLD cfd's - DAILY (CHART LINK)
5. GOLD - Integrated - Barrick Gold (CHART LINK)
6. SILVER - DAILY (CHART LINK)
7. OIL - XLE - MONTHLY (CHART LINK)
8. OIL - WTIC - MONTHLY - (CHART LINK)
9. BITCOIN - BTCUSD -WEEKLY (CHART LINK)
10. 10y TIPS - Real Rates - Daily (CHART LINK)

***US DOLLAR - DXY - DAILY***

CHART RIGHT ABOVE: DOLLAR - DXY - 01-15-25 DXY long positioning is in the 95th percentile.

CHART RIGHT BELOW: DOLLAR - DXY - 01-18-25 - For now just a much needed pause. 21 day and the steep trend line come in around these levels. The Dollar Has Now Surpassed All Previous Peaks, Except 1985.

IMPORTANT -

THE US ELECTION HAS POTENTIALLY MADE MAJOR CHANGES IN THE PERCEPTION OF THE US$ .



THERE IS A STRONG CHANCE THAT THE LOWS SHOWN BELOW ARE

NO LONGER VALID.

CHART BELOW: DOLLAR - DXY - 01-18-25 - Looks like the dollar is heading for an overshoot...

CHART NOTES:

• The dollar was down this week, being down in after hours Friday trading at 106.793 -0.273 (-0.25%) compared to last Friday's cash close at 108.501.
• The DXY finally broke through its 50 DMA support level but still above the 100 DMA..
• The dollar also pushed through the MATASII Momentum Indicator's dotted black trend line marked by the red arrow in the lower panel.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:    SUBSCRIBER LINK

BOND MARKET

LOWER BOND YIELDS CORRECTLY SPOT A WEAKER MACRO

CONTROL PACKAGE

There are FIVE charts we have outlined in prior chart packages that we will continue to watch closely as a CURRENT "control set":

1. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - HOURLY (CHART LINK)
2. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - DAILY (CHART LINK)
3. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - WEEKLY (CHART LINK)
4. The 30Y TREASURY BOND YIELD - TNX - WEEKLY (CHART LINK)
5. REAL RATES (CHART LINK)

FISHER'S EQUATION = 10Y Yield = 10Y INFLATION BE% + REAL % = 2.443% + 2.039% = 4.482%

10YR AUCTION: US Treasury sold USD 42bln of 10yr notes at a high yield of 4.632%, tailing the when issued by 0.9bps. The tail was larger than the prior 0.2bps tail and average 0.1bp tail, while bid to cover was also soft - both signs of soft demand. Nonetheless, there was a notable pick up in indirect demand to 71.6% from 61.4%, above the 68.8% average, although direct demand tumbled to 13.6% from 23%, below the 17.4% average, seeing Dealers left with 14.8% of the auction - slightly beneath the prior 15.6% but above the average 13.4%.

30YR AUCTION: US Treasury sold USD 25bln of 30yr bonds at high yield of 4.748%, tailing the when issued by 1.2bps, very disappointing when compared to the prior stop through of 0.7bps and six auction average for a 0.2bps tail and follows on from the soft 10yr auction on Wednesday. The 30yr bond futures had been rallying into the auction after the PPI data revealed soft PCE components, seeing negative concession ahead of the auction which analysts warned raises the risk for a tail (albeit the concession ahead of the 10yr on Wednesday after hot CPI did little favours). The bid-to-cover of 2.33x was well beneath the prior and average too. The breakdown saw Indirect demand slip slightly to 65.08% beneath the 68.4% average, while direct demand fell to 18.58% from 20.7%, slightly above the six auction average of 17.6%. This left dealers with an above prior and average 16.35% (prev. 12.7%, avg. 14%).

NEXT WEEK SUPPLY:

• US Treasury to sell USD 16bln of 20yr bonds and USD 9bln of 30yr TIPS (as expected) on February 19th and February 20th, respectively; all to settle Feb 28th
• US to sell USD 80bln of 6wk bills, USD 80bln of 13wk bills, USD 70bln of 26wk bills and USD 48bln of 52wk bills on February 18th; all to settle Feb 20th

10Y REAL YIELD RATE (TIPS)

Real Rates have broken through its descending trend wedge channel line, (shown in the chart to the right - as of close 02/07/25). (LATEST)

The latest US NY Fed SCE has seen inflation expectations continue to increase across the forecast horizon.

CHART RIGHT:

There is a strong possibility that 4.72%, which was achieved during Wednesday trading, was the high for the current cycle.

US 10 year surging post payrolls. We are now "decisively" above the range, and there is no real stop until recent highs around 5%. The golden cross we have been pointing out for weeks is well in place. Last time a similar cross occurred, the 10 year gained some 125 bps over a few months. We are up around 70 bps since the latest Golden Cross kicked in.

***10Y UST - TNX - WEEKLY***

CHART NOTES:

• Yields fell aggressively last week with the QRA announcement.
• The TNX closed Friday at 4.473 down -0.0033 (-1.17%) for the day and down from last Friday at 4.569.
• Price has fallen to the 20 WMA and the downward dotted black trend line marked by the red arrow.
• The Proprietary MATASII Momentum Indicators' (lower pane) support levels, shown by the dotted black line and highlighted by the red arrow, which had been broken to the upside is now looks to need to be retested.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

TNX - 10Y UST - 02-12-25

Higher for longer - Massive move higher in the 10 year.

Haven't seen such a "clean" up candle in a while.

Note we are once again well above the 50 day. Upside resistance levels: 4.7% and then the big 4.8% level.

***10Y UST - TNX - HOURLY***

CHART NOTES:

• The TNX closed Friday at 4.473 down -0.0033 (-1.17%) for the day and down from last Friday at 4.569.
• The Proprietary MATASII Momentum Indicators' (lower panel) shows the support level (dashed black line) highlighted by the red arrow is now acting as support.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

CREDIT MARKET

***10Y-FED FUNDS RATE YIELD CURVE***

CHART NOTES:

• The Yield Curve has reverted and is now within the warning zone as marked by the red circle in the upper panel on the right.

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