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NEGATIVE SENTIMENT GETTING EXTREME

MAG-7 (NOW THE LAG-7) NO LONGER LEADING

THE LAG-7

The 'Lagnificent 7' basket of stocks plunged in February, down a stunning $2.2 Trillion in market cap from the December highs, testing its 200DMA...

This was the second biggest monthly drop in Mag7 market cap ever, (April 2022 only one bigger).

CHART RIGHT:

Negative Sentiment is getting extreme!

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

INDEX

NEW IMAGE CHANGES ARE LABELED WITH A BLUE TRIPLE ***STAR***

OLD IMAGE CHANGES ARE LABELED WITH A RED TRIPLE ***STAR***

OLD IMAGES REFLECT MINIMAL CHANGE, but Narrative is ALWAYS updated.

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1- US EQUITY MARKETS

FEBRUARY WAS QUITE A MONTH!!

• Economy - growth expectations stalling
• Inflation - disinflationary path is over
• AI/Meme/Momo/Tech stocks - clubbed like a baby seal as CTA thresholds hit and revenues disappoint
• Crypto - carnage as cash-and-carry trade unwinds
• Bond yields - plunged as growth fears rise
• STIRs - rate-cut hopes soared.

CHART RIGHT: All the US Majors broke below critical technical levels..

All the US Majors are lower in February with Small Caps the biggest loser and Trannies the least ugly horse in the glue factory.

• The major issue for the market is more top-down macro than geopolitical. The policy mix is driving the market to price what looks like a growth shock. Tariff headlines yesterday with implementation of Mexico and Canada meant to hit in early March + the suggestion of tariffs on Europe + European autos + increased China tariffs weighed on risk. Whether tariffs are delivered or not they are quite likely impacting confidence/injecting uncertainty and that hurts capex/spending/forward planning.

As Nomura's Charlie McElligott nicely summarized: 

"the Market is coming-around to understand that the early Trump 2.0 policy mix is a Growth DRAG because it HAS TO BE ('Engineering a Mild Recession') in the mind of POTUS and his Administration, in order to achieve the tectonic shift he is seeking...

And that is to rebalance Economic Growth and Labor AWAY FROM dependency upon perpetually higher long-term U.S. Govt spending and hiring-trends, and instead attempt to flatten / bend the trajectory of each back towards the Private-sector, which he can then later stimulate with easier FCI via lower Rates and weaker US Dollar, (BUT YOU GOTTA MAKE IT THERE ALIVE FIRST…hence, THE FATTER LEFT TAIL in the meantime)...

.... Dangerously for “market status quo” purposes, and in order to achieve this long-horizon goal of “Re-Privatizing the U.S. Economy,” the theory then becomes that the Administration KNOWS they are gonna have to pump the breaks on the “Perpetual (Money) Machine” of Govt Spending and Employment, which HAS TO crack some eggs (LOL) in an attempt to readjust for the past “Sins of Excess,” particularly via hypothetical Govt Spending cuts and Federal Worker layoffs, along of course with these monster Tariffs (which are WAY over anything we saw in Trump 1.0. Most critically, yesterday’s additional 10% Tariff on all Chinese goods effective March 4th, coming 1 month after his initial 10% tariff increase and raising the cumulative to 20%, as a new round of escalations which hadn’t previously been signaled and taking the estimated average U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods to approx 33% per Ting Lu) as the blunt-force tools used to reset Global Trade and hit Growth, leading to Disinflationary Impulse which will eventually bring the lower Rates and weaker US Dollar he wants for the Economy in Phase 2...

Of course, this theme of “Growth Scare / Repricing the Left Tail Accident” can of course ALSO overshoot.

There IS a “Put Strike” for Trump with Equities in there somewhere, just not here and not yet, because the threats for tariffs hitting next week then seemingly increases the risk that the following April 2nd reciprocal tariffs will be chunky as well — as such, Vol in SPX today is not really giving back much of anything, despite the Spot rally...

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S&P 500 - ANALYTICS

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MATASII BANK INDEX - ANALYTICS

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MATASII FINANCIAL INDEX - ANALYTICS

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RUSSELL 2000 - ANALYTICS

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MAG-7 - ANALYTICS

NEW-- EARNING SEASON RECAP

02-28-25



This earnings season was the first time in two years that the 'Magnificent 7' stocks did NOT handily beat sales estimates.

Mag7 stocks are down over $625 billion in market cap in the last two weeks, (with only META and NVDA up this week). The chart below shows the weekly trading percentage changes of each of the Mag-7 since August 2024.

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NVDA - ANALYTICS

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GOOG - ANALYTICS

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META - ANALYTICS

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

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AAPL ANALYTICS

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

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EUROPE ON SALE

GLOBAL MONEY TAKES FULL ADVANTAGE OF A WEAK EURO

AN EXPLODING GERMAN DAX: The DAX is the German stock market index consisting of the 40 major German blue chip companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It is a total return index. Recently we have been witnessing a DAX upside panic buying versus a SPX’s sideways snooze. There is more than a weak Euro driving this lift! (German Elections?) We can't recall when DAX was trading this much above the 200 day moving average. The DAX ended the week on almost a high note. RSI remains at very overbought levels.

The DAX has been showing the spot up, volatility up behavior over the past weeks. This is usually what you see when people are forced to chase longs, expressing views via upside options exposure. DAX volatility is starting to show that NASDAQ whale feature. The gap between DAX "VIX" and VIX widened further as pure upside panic in DAX plays out. 

2- COMMODITIES

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COMMODITY ANALYTICS

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***SILVER***

MATASII CHART NOTES:

• PRICE - Silver closed Friday at 31.17 down -0.1150 (-0.37%) for the day but also down compared to last Friday's close at 32.4221.

• DMA - Silver found support at the 100 DMA above its 50 DMA which is turning up.

• MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - The MATASII Proprietary Momentum Indicator has been falling over the last week.

MARKET LAB

02-17-25: Silver often comes late to the party, but when it finally gets there it can be an unstoppable hedonist.

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SILVER - ANALYTICS

02-17-25: We are seeing the same dynamics with silver as we are seeing with gold. There is a shortage of deliverable physical metal in London after years of EM central-bank hoarding. Comex silver warehouses in the US are filling up while stocks in London are falling.

.

3- CURRENCY MARKET

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4- BOND MARKET

LOWER BOND YIELDS CORRECTLY SPOT A WEAKER MACRO

FISHER'S EQUATION = 10Y Yield = 10Y INFLATION BE% + REAL % = 2.381% + 1.928% = 4.309%

• 2YR AUCTION:  Overall a strong 2yr auction. The US Treasury sold USD 69bln of 2yr notes at a high yield of 4.169%, stopping through the when issued by 1.1bps, a strong sign of demand when compared to the prior tail of 0.1bps and six auction average of a 0.3bps stop through. The bid-to-cover of 2.56x was lower than the prior and average of 2.66x. Nonetheless, the breakdown was also encouraging, primarily thanks to a surge in indirect demand, which jumped to 85.49% from 65.0%, well above the 68.9% six auction average. This more than offset the drop in direct demand to just 7.64% (prev. 21.3%, avg. 18.3), seeing dealers take just 6.87% of the auction, beneath the 13.7% prior and six-auction average of 12.8%.
• US sold USD 80bln (exp. 76bln) in 3mth bills at high rate of 4.195%, B/C 2.90x ; Sold USD 71bln (exp. 68bln) in 6mth bills at high rate of 4.180%, B/C 3.05x

US Treasury to sell:

• US Treasury to sell USD 70bln in 5yr notes on February 25th; to settle February 28th.
• USD 44bln in 7yr notes on February 26th; to settle February 28th.
• USD 28bln of 2yr FRN on February 26th, to settle February 28th.
• USD 75bln of 6wk bills on February 25th; to settle February 27th.

• 5YR AUCTION: Overall a strong 5yr note auction. The US Treasury sold USD 70bln of 5yr notes at a high yield of 4.123%, a lower yield than the January offering's 4.33%. The auction stopped through the when issued by 1bps, a greater sign of demand than the prior 0.6bps stop through, and much better when compared to the six auction average of a 0.1bps tail. The bid-to-cover of 2.42 was in line with priors and averages. The breakdown of buyers saw very strong indirect demand of 74.87%, rising from the prior 62.8% and above the 68.6% average. Direct demand fell however to 14.54% from 26.1%, beneath the 19% six auction average. This left dealers with a slightly below average and prior 10.59% of the auction.
• US sold USD 75bln of 6wk bills (exp. USD 75bln) at high rate of 4.230%, B/C 3.05x.

US Treasury to sell:

• USD 44bln in 7yr notes on February 26th; to settle February 28th.
• USD 28bln of 2yr FRN on February 26th, to settle February 28th.
• USD 60bln of 17wk bills on February 26th; to settle March 4th.
• USD 75bln in 8wk bills on February 27th; to settle March 4th.
• USD 80bln in 4wk bills on February 27th; to settle March 4th.

• 7YR AUCTION: Another strong 7yr auction but in line with recent averages. The US Treasury sold USD 44bln of 7yr notes at a high yield of 4.194%, stopping through the when issued by 0.9bps, matching the prior auction stop through but not quite as strong as the six auction average, with a tail not seen in a 7yr auction since August 2024. The bid-to cover was in line with prior and averages. The breakdown was in fitting with the prior auction, although indirect demand was beneath the six auction average while direct demand was above. Dealers were left with 8.8% of the auction, marginally beneath the prior and average.
• US sold USD 60bln (exp. 60bln) of 17wk bills at high rate of 4.200%, B/C 2.78x.

US Treasury to sell:

• USD 75bln in 8wk bills on February 27th; to settle March 4th.
• USD 80bln in 4wk bills on February 27th; to settle March 4th.

10Y REAL YIELD RATE (TIPS)

Real Rates have broken through its descending trend wedge channel line, (shown in the chart to the right - as of close 02/21/25). (LATEST)

The latest US NY Fed SCE has seen inflation expectations continue to increase across the forecast horizon.

***10Y UST - TNX - WEEKLY***

MATASII CHART NOTES:

• PRICE - The TNX closed Friday at 4.23 down -0.056 (-1.31%) for the day and down significantly from last Friday's 4.421.
• WMA - Price has fallen to the 40 WMA and below the downward dotted black trend line marked near the red arrow.
• MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - The Proprietary MATASII Momentum Indicators' (lower pane) support levels, shown by the dotted black line and highlighted by the red arrow, which had been broken to the upside now looks to need to be retested.

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***10Y UST - TNX - HOURLY***

CHART NOTES:

• PRICE - The TNX closed Friday at 4.23 down -0.056 (-1.31%) for the day and down significantly from last Friday's 4.421.
• MATASII PROPRIETARY MOMENTUM INDICATOR - The Proprietary MATASII Momentum Indicators (lower panel) shows the support level (dashed black line) highlighted by the red arrow is now acting as support.

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There is a strong possibility that 4.72%, which was achieved recently, was the high for the current cycle. We are now

"decisively" above the range, and there is no real stop until recent highs around 5%. The golden cross we have been pointing out for weeks is well in place. Last time a similar cross occurred, the 10 year gained some 125 bps over a few months. We are up around 70 bps since the latest Golden Cross kicked in.

5- CREDIT MARKET

YIELD CURVE - 10Y-FED FUNDS RATE (FFR)

TRUMP needs lower long term yields which means lower term premiums. Trump also wants to reduce the trade deficit through Tariffs. A reduced trade deficit can normally be expected to lead to higher yields as demand for dollar reserve assets will fall. (It already is falling, which is ultimately why gold is flooding out of London vaults and into Comex warehouses in the US.)

As a consequence this leaves a lot resting on DOGE to reduce fiscal excess - current Polymarket odds are 38% that more than $250 billion is saved in 2025. With spreads so tight, the risk-reward for even tighter ones is diminishing.

HIGH YIELD (HY) - JNK

THIS WEEK'S MARKET MONITOR

MONDAY

• Stocks closed in the red on Monday, extending on Friday losses as the pullback from recent ATHs continues.
• There were few fresh drivers for the downside but the overhang of tariffs and uncertainty on geopolitics continues to weigh.
• US President Trump noted in late trade that tariffs are still going ahead, and the US is on track to implement them by their respective deadlines.
• On Geopolitics, Trump said that talks are proceeding well regarding Russia and Ukraine, while Russian President Putin said he does not see anything wrong with European participation in the negotiations on Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he would be willing to step down if it meant Ukraine could join NATO (if such a proposal was offered).
• Sectors were mixed, with tech underperforming ahead of NVDA earnings on Wednesday, while there were mixed reports about Microsoft (MSFT) cancelling leases for data centers, bringing into question the large CapEx expectations from the tech sector as they look to bolster AI technology.
• Health Care outperformed on haven properties while Financials were buoyed by Berkshire Hathaway earnings.
• Elsewhere, the Dollar saw mild upside with Euro upside post-German election fading by the end of the US session.
• CDU/CSU came out on top and look set to make a grand coalition with the SPD, although this would still lack the two-thirds majority required for any constitutional reform (like the debt break).
• Oil prices settled green with upside supported by fresh US sanctions targeting Iranian oil while geopolitics remains in focus, as does supply from Iraq and resumption of Kurdish oil exports.
• T-notes caught a bid across the curve, supported by falling equity prices with attention turning to more supply on Tuesday and Wednesday after a solid 2yr auction today, ahead of GDP on Thursday and PCE on Friday.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS:   5yr BEI +0.3bps at 2.559%, 10yr BEI +0.4bps at 2.428%,

30yr BEI +0.2bps at 2.328%.

REAL RATES: 10Y -- 1.9985%

STOCK SPECIFICS

• Dominos (DPZ): Profit, revenue, SSS all missed; approved 15% increase in quarterly dividend.
• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B): CEO Buffett endorsed successor Greg Abel; Operating earnings topped expectations, record annual profits.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Developing AI technology to help automakers create personalised driving styles for self-driving cars.
• Apple (AAPL): Plans to build a factory in Texas by 2025 to build AI servers, adding 20k R&D jobs across the US.
• Bridge Investment Group (BRDG): Apollo (APO) to buy the co. for USD 1.5bln.
• Nike (NKE): Upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jefferies with a USD 11 PT (prev. 75), arguing the new CEO is tackling product and distribution issues "head-on, positioning the brand to again outgrow the market and take back lost share. The firm sees a "V-shaped" earnings and margin recovery in fiscal 2027 for Nike, well ahead of the consensus estimates.
• Alliance Bernstein (AB): Equitable Holdings (EQH) announced its aims to raise its stake in AB.
• Pfizer (PFE) - Announced Patrizia Cavazzoni will rejoin as CMO and Executive VP.
• Robinhood (HOOD): SEC has closed its investigation into Robinhood crypto; and will not take action.
• Rivian (RIVN): Downgraded at BofA.
• Microsoft (MSFT) - Strongly refuted any change to its data centre strategy when speaking to Jefferies, via CNBC. Follows earlier reports the Co. started cancelling leases for a significant amount of US data centre capacity, potentially indicating concerns about overbuilding AI computing infrastructure, Bloomberg reported citing an analyst.



TUESDAY

• US equities closed offer earlier lows seen at the cash open with DJI (+0.4%) turning positive while SPX (-0.5%), NDX (-1.2%) and RUT (-0.4%) remained in the red.
• Behind the selloff, fears resumed around the consumer with the latest US Consumer Confidence gauge from the Conference Board exhibiting a similar tone seen in last Friday's UoM report, namely consumer confidence tumbling below the most pessimistic analysts forecasts.
• The print saw its largest monthly decline since August 2021, with expectations index dipping below the level of 80 which "usually signals a recession ahead".
• Despite the selling pressure, Consumer Staples and Real Estate outperformed with decent gains.
• On the former, Walmart (WMT +4.3%) relief rally from lows seen last week on underwhelming guidance helped while positive earning reports from American Tower (AMT, +6.1%) and Public Storage (PSA, +1.7%) buoyed the Real Estate sector.
• Communications were at the bottom of the pile as Meta (META) continued its retreat from ATHs while heavyweight loser Tesla (TSLA, -8.4%) weighed on the Discretionary sector following European sales dropping 45% in January.
• In FX, the Dollar wiped out recent strength with yields across the Treasury curve lower.
• The move higher in treasuries leading up to the US data had little fresh drivers behind it, but many have been becoming wary over the recent consumer woes and economic implications from DOGE's incoming Federal layoffs.
• Fed's Barkin downplayed impacts from Federal layoffs, acknowledging that federal layoffs could be significant for regional economies but represent only 2% of the national job market. EUR,GBP, and Havens all saw gains, with the Euro helped by positive developments regarding US-Ukraine relations.
• The latest FT reports note that Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal after the US dropped demands for a right to USD 500bln in potential revenue from exploiting the resources.
• Later, Bloomberg reported Ukraine's cabinet is expected to recommend a US critical minerals deal to be signed on Wednesday. In crude, WTI and Brent were lower by ~ USD 1.70/bbl at USD 69/bbl and USD 72.60/bbl, respectively.
• Prices were weighed on by subdued consumer sentiment while energy-specific newsflow was light. US President Trump commented on Truth that they want the Keystone XL Pipeline built and suggested easy approvals.
• Post-US close, US Commerce Secretary said they will investigate possible impositions of tariffs to build the US copper industry, however, no time line was given.
• Going forward, Nvidia (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday are the big event and looking beyond to Friday, the PCE report remains of focus, with Fed's Barkin expecting it to show a further decline.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS:   5yr BEI -4.6bps at 2.526%, 10yr BEI -4.3bps at 2.389%, 30yr BEI -4.3bps at 2.289%.

REAL RATES: 10Y -- 1.9763%

EARNINGS

• Home Depot (HD): Beat on profit and revenue, while FY SSS & EPS guidance disappointed.
• American Tower (AMT): Revenue and FY adj. EBITDA guidance topped expectations.
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP): Profit and revenue beat.
• Zoom Communications (ZM): FY profit and revenue outlook fell short.
• Cleveland Cliffs (CLF): Reported steeper loss than expected and revenue missed.
• Diamondback Energy (FANG): Top and bottom lines beat.
• Hims & Hers (HIMS): Profit missed, and is to pull commercial doses of copycat Ozempic.
• Realty Income (O): Adj. FFO and FY25 guidance underwhelmed.
• Sempra (SRE): EPS, revenue, and FY EPS guidance all missed.

STOCK SPECIFICS

• Nvidia (NVDA): Trump considers tighter controls on NVDA Chip exports to China. However, Chinese firms, including Alibaba (BABA) & Tencent (TECHY) are increasing orders for NVDA's H21 AI chip.
• Eli Lilly (LLY): Lowering Zepbound vial price of 2.5mg and 5mg dose.
• Apple (AAPL): CEO Cook says Apple continues to plan for annual dividend increases. Apple will be the largest customer of TSMC's Arizona factory.
• Linde (LIN): Increased the quarterly dividend by 8% to USD 1.50/shr.
• UnitedHealth Group (UNH): US Senator Grassley launces inquiry into company's Medicare billing practices, according to WSJ.
• McDonald's (MCD): Expects to incur about USD 300mln of restructuring charges in 2025.
• Starbucks (SBUX): To outsource some Tech work after corporate shake up, Bloomberg reports.

WEDNESDAY

• Stocks ended mixed, enduring a choppy day, although futures attempted a rebound from overnight trade following the House passing a budget blueprint endorsing US President Trump's USD 4.5tln tax cuts.
• However, stocks sold off through US trade, before rallying in ahead of the closing bell, with attention turning to NVDA earnings after hours (NVDA were firmer at the open but closed lower).
• Meanwhile, Trump was speaking on Tariffs at the Cabinet Meeting, where he noted they will be announcing tariffs on the EU very soon, and that he is not stopping the tariffs, adding they will go on, not all, but a lot of them.
• There was also some confusion about his response to Canada/Mexico tariffs, Trump said they are going into effect from April 2nd, but Lutnick clarified global tariffs go into effect on April 2nd, while Trump can pause Canada/Mexico tariffs related to fentanyl/border if he is satisfied with their efforts by the March 4th deadline.
• T-Notes reversed higher despite selling off overnight on the budget blueprint passage, with underlying factors supporting the bid in Treasuries (DOGE, Bessent's preference for low yields, terming out duration a "long way off", and upcoming potential Fed Balance sheet wind down pause, slowing consumer trends) - T-Notes settled at highs.
• Data saw soft US New Home Sales, while Fed speak from Barkin and Bostic stuck to the script. Oil prices settled lower with more reports of an agreement between Iraq government and Kurdistan about the resumption of Kurdistan oil exports weighing, but crude was off lows after Trump reversed concessions Biden gave to Venezuela's Maduro on an oil deal.
• Gold prices were flat while copper rallied on US copper tariff threats and also due to Chile power outages affecting its copper mines, which are slowly coming back online.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS:    5yr BEI -2.8bps at 2.501%, 10yr BEI -2.7bps at 2.362%,

30yr BEI -2.7bps at 2.261%.

REAL RATES: 10Y -- 1.8960%

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Met a Nasdaq deadline to submit delayed regulatory filings, avoiding delisting.
• Micron (MU): Starts shipping samples of its 1γ, 6th gen DRAM-based DDR5 memory using extreme UV tech.
• Lowe (LOW): EPS, revenue and SSS topped, but FY outlook light.
• TJX (TJX): EPS and revenue beat, expects to raise the quarterly dividend by 13% and buyback USD 2-2.5bln of stock in FY26.
• Apple (AAPL): Decided to charge a 27% fee for steering customers to payments outside the App Store.
• Workday (WDAY): EPS and revenue beat.
• Intuit (INTU): EPS and revenue topped; Next quarter guidance mixed & reaffirmed FY outlook.
• Keysight Technologies (KEYS): Top and bottom line surpassed expectations with strong next quarterly profit view.
• Instacart (CART): Lower-than-expected Q4 sales with mixed next quarter outlook.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Shares were choppy but ultimately closed lower ahead of earnings after-hours.
• General Motors (GM): Board approved new USD 6bln share buyback plan and raised dividend.
• Chevron (CVX): Reportedly open to buying Phillips 66 (PSX) chemical stake, according to Bloomberg.
• Alphabet's Google (GOOGL): Cuts employees in the cloud division, via Bloomberg.

THURSDAY

• US indices closed notably in the red, with Nasdaq 100 (-2.8% ) the clear laggard, as well as the Technology sector, amid significant Nvidia (-8.6%) weakness in wake of earnings, and the latest Trump tariff remarks which had cross-asset impacts.
• On this, US President Trump clarified that there will be a 10+10 tariff on China, so 20%, and the proposed tariffs (on Canada/Mexico) are scheduled to go into effect on March 4th. In the wake of this, the Dollar saw strength, to the detriment of global FX peers, especially the CAD, MXN, and CNH.
• Treasuries were lower across the curve, paring some of the recent strength, as the tariff threat returned.
• The crude complex was firmer on Thursday, settling at highs amid a couple of bullish factors, the aforementioned Trump tariffs, and OPEC+.
• On the latter, Reuters sources reported that OPEC+ is hesitant to go ahead with the planned April oil output hike due to uncertainty over sanctions and tariffs.
• Sources add Russia and UAE would like to proceed with the April oil output hike and other members, including Saudi Arabia favour a delay.
• Elsewhere, US data was mixed - Durable goods and initial jobless claims both smashed through expectations, albeit with different caveats (more details below), while Q4 GDP 2nd estimate was unrevised, while deflator and core PCE was revised slightly higher, ahead of January PCE tomorrow.
• Fed wise, Schmid (2025 voter) is more cautious about inflation given the lack of progress and concern growing also about the recent increase in inflation expectations, while Hammack (2026 voter) continued to Hawk noting Fed rate policy may be close to neutral right now.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS:  5yr BEI +2.3bps at 2.525%, 10yr BEI +0.6bps at 2.370%,

30yr BEI -0.4bps at 2.257%.

REAL RATES: 10Y -- 1.8987%

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• Nvidia (NVDA): Beat on EPS & revenue as Data Centre revenue surged, driven by AI chip demand; Q1 sales guidance topped with GMs seen easing in Q1. Check out the headline feed, to see market reactions to the earnings report.
• Salesforce (CRM): Revenue missed with subscription & support revenue underperforming. Issued lower-than-expected guidance; Note, EPS beat.
• Snowflake (SNOW): EPS and revenue topped
• Synopsys (SNPS): Top and bottom line beat
• Nutanix (NTNX): EPS and revenue topped with strong FY revenue guidance
• Paramount (PARA): Surprise loss per shr. and revenue missed
• eBay (EBAY): Q1 top line light. Note, EPS, revenue and GMV beat
• Mercedes (MGBYY): To cut 15% of its China workforce
• Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA): The buyout of Walgreens would set the stage for a three-way split of the Co, according to the FT sources; talks could still fall apart in the coming weeks. Initially be taken private as a whole, then split into three units.
• Freeport-McMoran (FCX): Upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at Jefferie citing recent updates regarding Indonesia as well as the potential significant benefit to the company from tariffs on US copper imports.
• Meta (META): In talks with Apollo for USD 35bln data-center financing, according to Bloomberg.
• Tesla (TSLA): Seeks approval for ride-hailing business in California, according to Bloomberg.

FRIDAY

• US indices endured a choppy session but closed notably in the green, and at highs as they saw a notable bid into settlement amongst month-end, despite the initial sell-off seen post-US open.
• US January PCE was the scheduled data highlight, but turned out to be a damp squib, in terms of market reaction, as both headline and core metrics M/M and Y/Y printed in line.
• At the same time, US advanced goods trade balance deficit soared ~26% M/M as imports surged amid potential front-loading ahead of tariffs.
• In the wake of the data, the latest Atlanta Fed GDPnow model for Q1 forecasted -1.5% from +2.3%, which prompted risk-off trade - US equity futures sold, Treasuries bid, and Yen firmed.
• Nonetheless, the session highlight came after a fiery and argumentative meeting between US President Trump and Ukraine President Zelensky.
• Summarising, Trump told Zelensky "You are gambling with World War III", "You either make a deal or we are out".
• Following the meeting, where a joint press conference was originally scheduled, Trump posted on Truth, that Zelensky disrespected the US and he could come back when ready for peace.
• Summarising the fallout, a minerals deal was not signed, the joint presser was cancelled, and leaders throughout Europe have announced their solidarity with Ukraine.
• In the wake of the fireworks, the Dollar and WTI saw upside, with the latter's move to the detriment of all G10 FX peers.
• Elsewhere, the crude complex settled slightly lower, but well off earlier lows, following Trump and Zelensky's aforementioned fiery meeting, whereby Zelensky was asked to leave the White House.
• Meanwhile, the Treasuries rally resumed as concerns over the US economy returned and geopolitical tensions climbed.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS:   5yr BEI +1.7bps at 2.536%, 10yr BEI +1.9bps at 2.381%,

30yr BEI +2.4bps at 2.272%.

REAL RATES: 10Y -- 1.928%

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• Dell Technologies (DELL): Revenue light; EPS topped, raised cash dividend and approved a USD 10bln increase to share buyback programme.
• HP (HPQ): Disappointing next quarter profit guide amid rising component costs and tariffs on Chinese imports.
• Autodesk (ADSK): EPS topped and announced restructuring plan; Next quarter and FY guidance impressed.
• NetApp (NTAP): Top line missed with weak outlook.
• Monster Beverage (MNST): Sales and GMs topped accompanied by upbeat commentary.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB): Greater loss per shr. and weak next quarter revenue. guide.
• Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA): Downgraded to 'Sell' from 'Hold' at Deutsche Bank, noting the potential take-private deal from Sycamore Partners is unlikely to be consummated at a premium to the current share price.
• Intel (INTC): Delayed its Ohio chip factory to 2030 or 2031, via Tech Crunch.

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