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MARCH 2025

MACRO ANALYTICS

Macro Analytics - 03/17/25

DOGE VERSUS THE NON-AUDITABLE NGO FRAUD



OBSERVATIONS: GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY & TRANSPARENCY


Quarterly my colleague Charles Hugh Smith and I sit down to discuss a central theme that our independent research writings are surfacing.The video "The Roaring 20's or the Great Depression 2.0?" is the product of that discussion for Q1.


Over the past 15 years Charles and I often arrive at the same theme however often from different perspectives. Myself from an Economic & Financial view versus Charles more from a Social & Cultural context. We have both benefited in gaining clearer insights on the same focus from these different vantage points. This quarter was no different.


What we see and discuss in the video is that President Donald J Trump is now facing Governance, Economic, Social and Cultural forces at play. Presently the most obvious is Government Accountability and Transparency.


GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY & TRANSPARENCY


  • GOVERNANCE - INTERNAL
  • ACCURATE & AUDITABLE ACCOUNTING
  • STOP SPENDING WASTE
  • NON GOVERNMENT - EXTERNAL
  • FRAUD & MIS-DIRECTED TAX PAYER $
  • NGOs, ACTIVIST & CHARITABLE ORGANIZATIONS


GOVERNMENT WAS NOT PROPERLY FOCUSED


This is due to the Obama and Biden administrations not focusing on and addressing the following:


  • HALTING ASSET BUBBLE CYCLES
  • THE US INCREASINGLY NOT PRODUCING MORE THAN WE CONSUME
  • NOT INVESTING IN PRODUCTIVITY BUT SPENDING ON CONSUMPTION
  • NOT RE-BALANCING & RE-INDUSTRIALIZING AMERICA


THE OBAMA / BIDEN ADMINISTRATIONS DID NOT TACKLE MASSIVE WEALTH INEQUALITY


  • STRUCTURAL & SYSTEMIC IN SCOPE
  • A GILDED AGE STATUS QUO


This has lead to a failure to recognize the emergence of the "Great Divide" now imperiling any party in successfully navigating the turbulent waters of the Fourth Turning.Both administrations failed to:


THIS WEEK WE SAW

Exp=Expectations, Rev=Revision, Prev=Previous


US

US CPI YY, NSA (Feb) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.0%)

US Core CPI YY, NSA (Feb) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.3%)

US PPI Final Demand YY (Feb) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.5%, Rev. 3.7%)

US PPI exFood/Energy YY (Feb) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.6%, Rev. 3.8%)



FAILURE TO RECOGNIZE "THE GREAT DIVIDE"


  1. ECONOMIC - URBAN v RURAL
  2. FINANCIAL- HAVES v HAVE NOTS
  3. CULTURAL - CREDENTIAL v WORKING CLASS
  4. GENERATIONAL - BOOMERS v MILLENNIAL / Z


THE "UGLY" THAT LIES AHEAD


The simple reality is that what lies ahead before we even begin to solve these problems is a Biden Hangover. This is the result from historic government spending levels that must be brought down and replaced with private investment spending.


This will inevitably lead to a "Detox Period" that goes with it!

There is no way of avoiding it!


Government spending supplies a "sugar high" that leaves behind it little more than debt. Most forget that in 2028 it took $3.9 dollars of new government debt to generate $1 of economic growth. With debt now far outstripping economic growth the US is entering a financial death spiral!


The process can be accelerated by taking the economy into a disinflationary recession or printing more money than Binde did.


What would you choose?


GOVERNMENT IS THE PROBLEM, NOT THE SOLUTION

PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN

gdpnow-forecast-evolution image

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW!


Q1 2025 GDPNow REDUCED TO -2.8%


Shockingly the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8 percent on March 3.


The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8 percent on March 3. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 4.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -3.57 percentage points to -3.84 percentage points.


GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.

MA-CHS-03-06-25-MARCH-Roaring-20s-or-Great-Depression-2 image

RESEARCH - MARKET DRIVERS


1- DOGE SAVINGS & WASTE v THE NON-AUDITABLE NGO / NON-PROFIT FRAUD

  • We had insufficient time in this quarters Macro Analytics video to expand on DOGE not being able to audit the organizations that actually received money from the government! That is where DOGE must stop but that is where massive fraud and misuse of tax payer money is taking place.
  • How? If I am for example the Red Cross, and everybody knows that historically the Red Cross is everything "good" then how can $300M given to them by the DHS to the Red Cross along with a Catholic Charity be bad?
  • FACT: The new DHS Secretary Christie Noem was shocked to immediately identify that this $300M had been specifically used to fund and support the flow of illegal immigration from the Darien Gap in South / Central America to the US/Mexico border.
  • THE WAY WASHINGTON WORKS: This example is only scratching the surface (ie USAID, $26K Politico Subscriptions, Millions of 130-210 year old seniors receiving Social Security, Untraceable US Treasury Disbursements et al) in what has come to light recently but it was a complete endorsement of what the former Chairman of the Congressional Committee on Oversight and Government reform had been yelling and writing about for nearly a decade now.
  • CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT & GOVERNMENT: Up and comer, former Congressman Jason Chaffetz laid out in detail how the game of fraud is played in Washington. He has written four books on the subject and yet zero has been done. Unable to effect any change or even serious investigation he left Congress under heavy attack. His predecessor Trey Gowdy likewise followed the same quickpath out of Congress. Were they "pushed" or is this only a coincidence??


2- CHARLES HUGH SMITH MACRO ANALYTIC VIDEO RECAP

  • My Colleague in the production of this month's Macro Analytics video published a widely circulated recap of our video which you will find useful as a further expansion of the messages contained in the video.
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DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH - POLICY DRIVERS


1- A PERIOD OF TRANSITION INTO A GREAT DEPRESSION?

  • Coincidently my colleague Richard Duncan also produced a video this week on the same subject as this month's Macro Analytics video entitled: "“A Period Of Transition” Into A Great Depression?"


2- THE APPROVED CONGRESSIONAL CR IS NOT WHAT YOU THINK IT IS!

  • The approved Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 budget resolution (CR) calls for up to $2 trillion in spending cuts as partial offsets for $4.8 trillion of tax cuts and spending increases.
  • Even with those offsets, the ensuing reconciliation bill would add $2.8 trillion to deficits through 2034 before interest.
deficit bigger than receipts image

GLOBAL ECONOMIC REPORTING - ECONOMIC DRIVERS


US DEFICIT HITS RECORD $1.1T IN FIRST 5 MO. OF 2025

  • February Taxes Failed To Cover Even Half Of Spending!!
  • At the rate it is going, DOGE will need a few hundred years to make a tangible impact, because in February the US government spent a staggering $603 billion, a 6% increase from the $567 billion a year ago while it collected just $296 billion in tax revenues.
  • Said otherwise, the US spent more than twice what it collected in February


FEBRUARY CPI / PPI

  • CPI: Headline and core CPI both printed below expectations (+0.2% MoM) which dragged the headline CPI down to +2.8% YoY.
  • PPI: Producer Prices following a similar path with Core PPI dropping by the most MoM since April 2020 (-0.1% MoM vs +0.3% exp), slowing the annual pace of change for producer prices to +3.4%...

1- DOGE SAVINGS & WASTE v THE NON-AUDITABLE NGO & "NON-PROFIT" CHARITABLE FRAUD


There was one slide we had insufficient time to discuss in this quarters Macro Analytics video when we discussed the role and results of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). As dramatic and alarming as the work of DOGE, in a matter of only a few weeks has been on uncovering US government Waste, Abuse and Fraud, it is but scratching the surface. That is because DOGE can only audit the Government and not the organizations that received money from the government! That is where DOGE must stop.

MA-CHS-03-06-25-MARCH-Roaring-20s-or-Great-Depression-2 image

Elon Musk elaborated on this in a recent interview with Joe Rogan. Using examples such as:


  • USAID
  • While the agency did some good, "90, 95%" of its work was not.
  • "It could be the kind of thing where you sort of fund Ebola prevention, but it turns out that actually, you're funding a lab that develops new Ebola," he said, adding: "They claim it's Ebola prevention, but it's actually Ebola creation."
  • He told Rogan that DOGE had continued to fund things that "appear to be legitimate" but that the government should not be sending taxpayer money to "dubious enterprises overseas."
  • NOTE: The Democratic Party’s main grifting engine, the USAID, was deconstructed weeks ago, yet we hear that just this week USAID workers were ordered to go back into their offices to shred all their documents. Did they have anything to hide, ya think?
  • US TREASURY
  • DOGE has sought to implement new reporting requirements for outgoing government payments and make payment categorization codes mandatory.
  • "There needs to be an explanation," he told Rogan. "We're not judging the quality of the explanation, but there should be some explanation for what this payment is for above nothing. That's a radical change to the system that is being implemented now."
  • "My guess is that probably saves $100 billion a year," he added.


Christie Noem the newly appointed Secretary of DHS (Department of Homeland Security) on her second day in office announced:


  • DEPARTMENT OF HOME SECURITY (DHS):
  • Stopped all grant funding to nonprofits that operate outside of government control, saying they have been "perverted into a shadow government" that feeds illegal immigration.
  • Noem said some non-governmental organizations (NGOs), which receive millions in federal grants, have been facilitating illegal immigration by helping aliens cross the U.S. border.
  • "Many of these NGOs actually have infrastructure and operations set up in Mexico, on that side of the border, and are telling those illegal immigrants to come to them, and they will get them across the border," Noem said on Fox News Channel's Will Cain Show. "So they're not just operating in the United States, they're operating outside the United States to help make it easier for those who want to break our laws."
  • The first step to curbing the issue is to freeze the funds, reevaluate them, and make sure taxpayer dollars are going toward safe causes, she said. "I think people are curious [to see how] grants that are given out by federal agencies [are] utilized," Noem said. 
  • Until an evaluation is completed, Noem said the department is "not spending another dime to help the destruction of this country."
  • She added not all NGOs are what they appear to be, and some could be a risk to national security. "When somebody said NGO to me, I thought that [was] a nonprofit telling somebody about Jesus or spreading faith and salvation…," Noem said. "Then I realized over the years, it's been perverted into this shadow government."
  • Noem explained that NGOs create an entity to use taxpayer dollars, funding an operation the federal government cannot legally implement itself.
  • Recently, she said they have been used to undermine the country's national security. Approximately 1.5 million NGOs operate in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of State.
  • NGOs can range from political advocacy groups, to religious volunteer organizations or labor unions.
  • There are no laws prohibiting foreign funding of NGOs, whether that be from other governments or non-government sources, according to the State Department.
  • In 2024, the U.S. spent more than $380 million on sheltering and service programs for illegal immigrants.


I am only scratching the surface above in what has come to light recently but it was a complete endorsement of what the former Chairman of the Congressional Committee on Oversight and Government reform had been yelling and writing about for nearly a decade now. Up and comer, former Congressman Jason Chaffetz laid out in detail how the game of fraud is played in Washington. Unable to effect any change or even serious investigation he left congress under heavy attack. His predecessor Trey Gowdy likewise followed the same quick path out of Congress. Were they "pushed" or is this only a coincidence??

71-Jf6fsptL image

LESSONS : THE FORMER CHAIRMAN OF THE COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT & GOVERNMENT REFORM (2015-2017)


When he left Congress in 2017, Jason Chaffetz still thought elections could save us. For generations, conservatives have hoped that freedom-loving congressional majorities could turn back the tide and restore America’s liberties and prosperity.


Jason was the first to identify and layout the exploding power NGO (Non-Governmental Organizations) and Non Profit "Charitable" organizations were exercising in the formulation and implementation of public policy and social change in America increasingly using taxpayer money.

Most recently he spells out how now winning elections will no longer be enough!


Increasingly, the work of government is being done by people outside the government—unelected power brokers who are invisible to the American public but who pull the strings, set the agendas, create the incentives, and write the rules we must all live by. Using both government and non-governmental institutions, leftists have bypassed the legislative process to compel institutional compliance with partisan goals. The White House or the Congress may change hands, but the left remains in power.


In The Puppeteers, Chaffetz reveals how:

  1. Susan Rice was put in charge of using the bureaucracy to make sure Republicans never win another election
  2. The federal government now could be deployed to harvest ballots from Democrats
  3. President Biden hired a Blackrock executive to run his economic agenda for the first two years of his presidency
  4. State treasurers planned to use billions of government dollars to “address climate change” and “racial inequality,” with almost no way for voters to stop them
  5. Randi Weingarten makes more decisions for the education department than people who actually work there


Electing the right leaders is no longer enough. To take back our country, the American people need to understand that they’re in a new fight. But it’s a fight that’s still eminently winnable, and Chaffetz reveals the playbook.

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MA-CHS-03-06-25-MARCH-Roaring-20s-or-Great-Depression-2 image
MA-CHS-03-06-25-MARCH-Roaring-20s-or-Great-Depression-2 image

2- CHARLES' POST ON OUR MACRO ANALYTICS VIDEO


Roaring 20s or Great Depression 2.0?



The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die.


Will we revel in a New Roaring 20s of exhilarating expansion, or will we suffer a Great Depression 2.0? Gordon Long and I explore this binary in our latest podcast.


Why is the next decade a binary of extremes rather than another period of "muddle through"? The short answer:

Cycles. Take your pick: the Fourth Turning, the Kondratieff credit cycle, Peter Turchin's 50-year cycle, the Debt Supercycle, and a host of others--they're all hitting their inflection points now.


If you dismiss all the cycles, fine. Just look at the political, social and economic state of the world, and you reach the same conclusion: a major historical inflection point in in play. While President Trump's policies are drawing all the media attention, Gordon and I break it all down to three defining systemic dynamics:


1. America's great wealth-income divides, i.e. the winners and losers of financialization and globalization: rural / urban, Main Street / Wall Street and the generational divide.


2. The allocation of capital: creative destruction vs monopoly / cartels. How will the nation's capital be invested? Will it be squandered in malinvestment that serves the interests of private equity, or will it be invested to serve national interests?


3. DOGE and entrenched interests' resistance to change: government over-reach, unlimited deficit spending and the decay of accountability do not serve the common good, yet these excesses benefit powerful entrenched interests who will pull out all the stops to defend their slice of the pie.


As I have often noted, the past 40 years can be understood as the Age of Hyper-Financialization and Hyper-Globalization, as these forces have come to dominate the America's economic, political and social landscapes. Financialization and globalization are not neutral forces: they generate winners and losers, and a deep gulf between the two extremes.


WINNERS v LOSERS

Coastal urban regions have been the nig winners, rural America has been the big loser. Wall Street has been the big winner, and Main Street the big loser. The Boomer Generation that bought stocks and housing when they were affordable to the majority have been the big winners as these assets have soared in credit-asset bubbles, and the generations priced out of these assets have been the big losers.


Monopolies and cartels have been the big winners, to the detriment of everyone else. The crapification of goods and services and the rise of precarity has enriched monopolies, cartels and private equity, at the expense of the rest of us.


Will the nation's capital be invested in the common good and the citizenry, or will it serve the interests of private equity? The heavily promoted fantasy is that enriching private equity magically serves the common good and the citizenry, but the decline of the nation's health and security speak to the reality that self-enrichment is not the same as investing in the citizenry and their interests.


GOOD GOVERNANCE

The core requirement of good governance are:

1) Transparency

2) Accountability

3) Prudent borrowing/spending and

4) Limits on over-reach. 


That each of these are in need of improvement is undeniable, and resistance comes in two flavors: those with different ideas of reform and those resisting any diminishment of their power and share of the state's largesse.


The binary ahead is the result of a simple law of Nature: adapt or die. Clinging on to whatever serves the interests of those benefiting from the current arrangement can be sold as "change," but this isn't adapting, it's maladaptation on a systemic scale. Whether we get the Roaring 20s or the Great Depression 2.0 boils down to this:


Are we adapting via real transformations, or are we controlling the narrative to protect those benefiting from the status quo? Stay tuned.

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH

Image-3-modern_breadline_resized_1200x630-March-11-2025-700x400 image

1- "A PERIOD OF TRANSITION" INTO A GREAT DEPRESSION?


My colleague Richard Duncan released a video on the same subject as Charles & I did with this weeks Macro Analytics video.


Richard supports his conclusions with 42 available on his site (RicahrdDuncanEconomics.com).


“A Period Of Transition” Into A Great Depression?

Posted March 11, 2025

A Transition Period—Or The Beginning of a New Great Depression?

The global economy is on the edge. Over the past few weeks, market tremors have turned into full-blown convulsions. Trillions of dollars in wealth have vanished. Investors are rattled. Consumers are anxious. And Washington? The Trump administration insists this is all part of a “transition period.”


But a transition to what?

The Everything Bubble Begins to Pop

Just six weeks ago, Macro Watch asked a critical question: “Is The Everything Bubble About To Pop?” The answer now seems undeniable. From stocks to crypto, asset prices are in freefall. The S&P 500 is spiraling downward. The Nasdaq has lost 13% in just a few weeks. The so-called “Magnificent 7” stocks—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and their peers—have been battered. Even Bitcoin, the poster child of speculative excess, has cratered. The carnage is everywhere.


Yet, instead of taking steps to prevent an economic meltdown, the Trump administration is pushing forward with radical policies that could accelerate the crisis. Tariffs on Chinese goods have been raised by an additional 20%, while those on many Canadian and Mexican goods are now 25%. These countries have begun to retaliate with tariffs of their own. Government spending is being slashed. Mass layoffs of federal employees are already underway.


This is not just an economic experiment. It’s a high-stakes gamble with global consequences.

A “Detox Period”—Or an Economic Freefall?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described this economic shift as a necessary “detox period.” According to him, the US must break free from its “addiction” to government spending and return to private-sector-driven growth. But here’s the problem: that “addiction” has been the lifeblood of the US economy for decades.


What happens when the government cuts spending while consumer prices soar due to trade wars? What happens when businesses hesitate to invest in the face of extreme uncertainty? What happens when markets spiral lower and confidence shatters?


We may be about to find out.

Has The Recession Already Begun?

The warning signs are multiplying:

– The Atlanta Fed is now forecasting a 2.4% contraction in US GDP this quarter.

– Consumer confidence is collapsing.

– Retail sales are plunging.

– The bond market is signaling distress.


And yet, the administration appears oblivious to the magnitude of the risk.


What if this isn’t just a transition? What if it’s the start of something far worse?

What Comes Next?

The new Macro Watch video breaks it all down. How bad could things get? What are the key indicators to watch? And most importantly—how will this economic experiment ultimately end?'


=======


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MA-CHS-03-06-25-MARCH-Roaring-20s-or-Great-Depression-2 image

2- THE APPROVED CONGRESSIONAL CR IS NOT WHAT YOU THINK IT IS!


A $2T CUT COMPARED TO $86T IN SPENDING!


The approved Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 budget resolution (CR) calls for up to $2 trillion in spending cuts as partial offsets for $4.8 trillion of tax cuts and spending increases. Even with those offsets, the ensuing reconciliation bill would add $2.8 trillion to deficits through 2034 before interest.


As we noted before, this $2 trillion spending cut – $1.7 trillion net of the spending increases – would not be the largest cut in history, and it would come at a time when annual deficits are nearly $2 trillion, total borrowing through FY 2034 will total $21 trillion, and interest payments on the debt will total $13 trillion.


Viewed in context of the total amount of spending projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) over the next decade, however, a $2 trillion cut is not all that large. Over the ten years from FY 2025 through 2034, CBO projects the federal government will spend a total of nearly $86 trillion. That means a $2 trillion cut would only represent about 2.3 percent of total projected spending.


Budgeting is all about priorities. If lawmakers feel they must have their $4.0 to $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and tax cut extensions as well as their $300 billion in increased spending for national defense and border security, then they should come up with an additional $2.8 trillion of spending cuts or revenue increases to ensure we don’t unnecessarily add to our already recklessly high national debt.


FURTHER DETAIL FROM THE "COMMITTEE FOR A RESPONSIBLE FEDERAL BUDGET"

GLOBAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS:

What This Week's Key Global Economic Releases Tell Us

US

MA-CHS-03-06-25-MARCH-Roaring-20s-or-Great-Depression-2 image

US DEFICIT HITS RECORD $1.1T IN FIRST 5 MO. OF 2025


February Taxes Failed To Cover Even Half Of Spending!!


At the rate it is going, DOGE will need a few hundred years to make a tangible impact, because in February the US government spent a staggering $603 billion, a 6% increase from the $567 billion a year ago while it collected just $296 billion in tax revenues.This has resulted in a $307 billion budget deficit for the month, which means that all tax revenues collected by the US government in February were less than the deficit! 


Said otherwise, the US spent more than twice what it collected in February (chart below)

MA-CHS-03-06-25-MARCH-Roaring-20s-or-Great-Depression-2 image
deficit bigger than receipts image

This in turn, means this February's deficit was just shy of the highest on record, and only the post-covid shock of 2021 was greater. and pushed the cumulative total for 2025 to $1.147 trillion, covering 38% of all US spending in fiscal 2025.


This is a problem because the cumulative budget deficit for the first 5 months of fiscal 2025 is the highest on record, surpassing even the fiscal shock from the depths of the post-covid response!


The punchline is that no matter what Musk does, the USS Titanic remain fully on autopilot because while a few billion in discretionary spending here and there can be cut, neither entitlements (Social Security, Medicare) nor interest on the debt can be - without a default (it can however be inflated away... and it will be) - and in February, gross interest on the Federal debt hit a record $1.177 trillion in the past twelve months thanks to another $86 billion in interest spending.


Another way of looking at it: in the first five months of the fiscal year, the US has spent $480 billion on interest alone, the highest 5 month total ever.


We are now well beyond the Minsky Moment and for all the kicking and screaming, there is only one way all of this ends.

FEBRUARY CPI / PPI


CPI: Headline and core CPI both printed below expectations (+0.2% MoM) which dragged the headline CPI down to +2.8% YoY.


PPI: Producer Prices following a similar path with Core PPI dropping by the most MoM since April 2020 (-0.1% MoM vs +0.3% exp), slowing the annual pace of change for producer prices to +3.4%...

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GLOBAL


WHAT DOES YOUR SCAN OF THE DATA BELOW TELL YOU? - THE MEDIA AVOIDS BAD NEWS!


We present the data in a way you can quickly see what is happening.


THIS WEEK WE SAW

Exp. =Expectations, Prev. =Previous

UNITED STATES

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb) 151k vs. Exp. 160k (Prev. 143k, Rev. 125k)
  • US Average Earnings YY (Feb) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.1%, Rev. 3.9%)
  • US Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.0%)
  • US JOLTS Job Openings (Jan) 7.74M vs. Exp. 7.63M (Prev. 7.6M, Rev. 7.508M)
  • US CPI YY, NSA (Feb) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.0%)
  • US Core CPI YY, NSA (Feb) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.3%)
  • US Cleveland Fed CPI (Feb) 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
  • US PPI Final Demand YY (Feb) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.5%, Rev. 3.7%)
  • US PPI exFood/Energy YY (Feb) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.6%, Rev. 3.8%)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 220.0k vs. Exp. 225.0k (Prev. 221.0k, Rev. 222k)
  • US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 1.87M vs. Exp. 1.9M (Prev. 1.897M)


CHINA

  • Chinese CPI MM (Feb) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.7%)
  • Chinese CPI YY (Feb) -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.5%)
  • Chinese PPI YY (Feb) -2.2% vs. Exp. -2.1% (Prev. -2.3%)
  • Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Feb) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%)
  • Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Feb) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.2%)
  • Japanese Business Survey Index* (Q1) -2.4% (Prev. 6.3%)


JAPAN

  • Japanese GDP Revised QQ (Q4) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.7%)
  • Japanese GDP Rev QQ Annualised (Q4) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.8%)
  • Japanese All Household Spending MM (Jan) -4.5% vs. Exp. -1.9% (Prev. 2.3%)
  • Japanese All Household Spending YY (Jan) 0.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 2.7%)
  • Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Feb) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.3%); YY (Feb) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.2%)
  • Japanese Business Survey Index (Q1) -2.4% (Prev. 6.3%)

EU

  • EU Sentix Index (Mar) -2.9 vs. Exp. -8.4 (Prev. -12.7)
  • EU Industrial Production YY (Jan) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. -2.0%); Industrial Production MM (Jan) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. -1.1%, Rev. -0.4%)


GERMANY


  • GERMANY FISCAL REFORM: CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens have come to a deal on fiscal reform. Slight tweaks to the package initially proposed by Merz but the broad measures are much the same and the package is therefore substantial. The bill is set to be voted on in the Bundestag on March 18th and should, given the three mentioned parties are in favour, hit the two-thirds threshold for constitutional reform. However, there are some potential stumbling blocks to this.


FRANCE

  • French CPI (EU Norm) Final MM (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -0.2%); YY (Feb) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.9%)


SPAIN

  • Spanish Retail Sales YY (Jan) 2.2% (Prev. 4.0%)


UK

  • UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Feb) 0.9% (Prev. 2.5%)
  • UK BRC Total Sales YY (Feb) 1.1% (Prev. 2.6%)
  • US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Feb) 100.7 (Prev. 102.8)
  • UK RICS Housing Survey (Feb) 11.0 vs. Exp. 20.0 (Prev. 22.0, Rev. 21.0)
  • UK GDP Estimate MM (Jan) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.4%); 3M/3M (Jan) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%); YY (Jan) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.5%)


AUSTRALIA

  • Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment MM (Mar) 4.0% (Prev. 0.1%)
  • Australian NAB Business Confidence (Feb) -1.0 (Prev. 4.0, Rev. 5)
  • Australian NAB Business Conditions (Feb) 4.0 (Prev. 3.0)


CURRENT MARKET PERSPECTIVE NEWSLETTER

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