ACF Drought and Water Update
January 26, 2021
A Summary of Drought Conditions from the:

Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Drought and Water Webinar
The ACF Basin is drought-free according to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 1/19/2021).  

Our next briefing is on Tuesday, February 23, 2021 at 1pm ET.

The recorded webinar can be found here.
January Key Points
 
ACF Climate Conditions and Outlooks
  • 2020 was very warm and wet for most of the Southeast U.S.
  • December 2020 was the first colder than normal month in Florida in nearly three years
  • Slightly warmer than normal over the last 30 days
  • Small pockets of “abnormally dry” (D0) over north Florida, Georgia, Alabama according to the U.S. Drought Monitor
  • Rainfall deficits starting to build across most of the ACF at 30 to 90 days
  • ”La Nina Advisory” now issued by NOAA, 100% chance of continuing through winter, 65% through spring.
  • CPC seasonal forecast favors above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall
  • Negative Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation overwhelmed typical La Nina impacts in December and January
  • Drought development a risk in spring as La Nina plays out, especially in the Lower ACF
  • Alabama Office of Water Resources states no reported water availability issues, no changes to AL Drought Declaration since 9/1/2020, areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) has risen from 5% to 23% of the state in the past week.

Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts

  • Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the high to much below normal range.
  • The upper Flint River basin is currently ranked as moderate hydrologic drought for the 7-day average streamflow.
  • 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the above normal to normal range.
  • 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the normal range.
  • Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from above normal to low, with most stations ranked in the normal range.
  • Flooding not anticipated in the short-term in the ACF
  • SERFC 1 month streamflow forecast - near normal, though above normal flows on far upper Chattahoochee
  • SERFC 3 month streamflow forecast - near normal


ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions

  • Inflows into the projects are normal/above normal.
  • Currently, projects are operating slightly above/right at winter pool elevations
  • The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
Current Drought Status
According to the most current U.S. Drought Monitor (as of 1/19/2020).
0% of the ACF Basin is in drought

23.33% of Alabama in D0 (Abnormally Dry)
11.31% of Georgia in D0
12.03% of Florida in D0
Lawn and Garden Moisture Index
January 25, 2020's Lawn and Garden Index from the University of Alabama at Huntsville displays some dryness in northern Alabama and Georgia as well as peninsular Florida, creeping into some coastal edges of the Florida panhandle.
Rainfall Totals & Departures
7-Day Precipitation Totals
The past 7 days, most of the ACF Basin has received between 1-2 inches of rainfall.
30-Day Precipitation Totals
The past 30 days, the majority of the ACF has received 4 inches of rainfall or less with the exception of parts of SW GA and the FL panhandle.
90-Day Precipitation Departures
The past 90 days, rainfall departures through most of the ACF are 2 inches are less above normal.
NOAA Seasonal Outlook (Feb - April)
The NOAA 3-month Seasonal Outlook (Feb.-April)favors above-normal temperatures for the southeast US and below normal rainfall.
Real-time Streamflow
Streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the high to much below normal range, with the majority of locations in the normal range.
Flint River at Albany
28-Day Average Streamflows
28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are in the above normal to normal range, 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are in the normal range, and the Apalachicola River flows are in the normal range.
(for more info: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)
Real-Time Groundwater Conditions
Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from above normal to low, with most stations in the normal range.
ACF Reservoir Conditions
(as of 1/25/2020) 

Inflows into the projects are normal/above normal with all projects operating above or right at winter pool elevations. The ACF Basin Composite Conservation and Flood Storage is in Zone 1 and is expected to remain in Zone 1 over the next few weeks.
1-Month & 3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts
The 1-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flow conditions.
The 3-month mean daily streamflow forecast predicts near normal flows.
Special Presentation:
Multivariate Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration for Drought Monitoring
View an animated side-by-side comparison of the 2020 maps of the USDM and IDI here:
Acknowledgments 
 
Speakers
David Zierden, FSU
Tom Littlepage, ADECA OWR
Paul Ankcorn, USGS
Troy Ephriam, USACE-Mobile District
Jeff Dobur, SERFC
Hamid Moradkhani, UA

Summary prepared by:
Rachel McGuire, Auburn University 

Resources

General Drought Information:

Drought Impact Reporter:

Southeast Climate Perspectives Map

General Climate and El Niño Information:
  
Streamflow Monitoring & Forecasting

Groundwater Monitoring
 
The Complete Set of Briefing Slides From the ACF River Basin Drought Webinar:

Additional Information From the Southeast River Forecast Center:
10-Day Guidance Forecasts:
Official River Stage and Flow Forecasts:


To join the ACF mailing list or for webinar-related questions,
please contact: 

Rachel McGuire 
334 844 1163