January Key Points
ACF Climate Conditions and Outlooks
- 2020 was very warm and wet for most of the Southeast U.S.
- December 2020 was the first colder than normal month in Florida in nearly three years
- Slightly warmer than normal over the last 30 days
- Small pockets of “abnormally dry” (D0) over north Florida, Georgia, Alabama according to the U.S. Drought Monitor
- Rainfall deficits starting to build across most of the ACF at 30 to 90 days
- ”La Nina Advisory” now issued by NOAA, 100% chance of continuing through winter, 65% through spring.
- CPC seasonal forecast favors above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall
- Negative Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation overwhelmed typical La Nina impacts in December and January
- Drought development a risk in spring as La Nina plays out, especially in the Lower ACF
- Alabama Office of Water Resources states no reported water availability issues, no changes to AL Drought Declaration since 9/1/2020, areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) has risen from 5% to 23% of the state in the past week.
Real-Time Streamflow & Forecasts
- Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the high to much below normal range.
- The upper Flint River basin is currently ranked as moderate hydrologic drought for the 7-day average streamflow.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River are currently in the above normal to normal range.
- 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the normal range.
- Real-time groundwater levels across the ACF basin range from above normal to low, with most stations ranked in the normal range.
- Flooding not anticipated in the short-term in the ACF
- SERFC 1 month streamflow forecast - near normal, though above normal flows on far upper Chattahoochee
- SERFC 3 month streamflow forecast - near normal
ACF Basin Reservoir Conditions
- Inflows into the projects are normal/above normal.
- Currently, projects are operating slightly above/right at winter pool elevations
- The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.