Newsletter - December 2022

Algo System of the Month: DT Rider M1C ES v2

Many traders choose to diversify their portfolios with algorithmic trading systems. The following system has been selected as the broker's choice for this month.

REQUIRED CAPITAL: $2,900*

PRODUCT: E-Mini S&P future

SYSTEM TYPE: Intraday

COST: $175 / month

COMMISSION: $7.50 per side  

The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data.   

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MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES & ORDERS - FULL REPORT

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PRELIMINARY US IMPORTS FOR CONSUMPTION OF STEEL PRODUCTS

Key Events That Moved the Market in Nov. 2022

The following is a review of US and world events from the last month. Please be advised that this content is based upon the opinions and research of GFF Brokers and its staff and should not be treated as trade recommendations.


S&P 500 Index (SPX) - Daily Chart - Nov 1-30, 2022 (Source: Tradingview)


November 1

  • With Wall Street anticipating further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve but hopeful that the pace of tightening might see some easing, stocks started the month on a choppy ride, ending slightly in the red.
  • The Dow fell 80 points followed by the S&P drifting 0.41% lower, and the Nasdaq, which lost 1.02%, the biggest loss of the day.
  • The Fed’s aggressive stance toward inflation seemed to bury any lingering hope that a “Fed pivot” would soon take place, though slower easing policies might see the light of day.

November 2

  • The market continues to twist and turn following the Fed’s expected 75-basis point rate hike.
  • The Dow plunged 505 points with the S&P (-2.50%) and Nasdaq (-3.39%) suffering sizable losses.
  • The ADP report showed modest growth but interest rate concerns continued to dominate market sentiment.

November 3

  • Bond yields drifted higher prompting a heavy selloff in the Tech sector.
  • Dow stocks slipped 146 points while the S&P declined 1.06% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.98%.
  • It’s as if consumers began craving more negativity in economic reports if only to present a case for the Fed to lighten up on its aggressive stance toward combating inflation; moreover, the upcoming jobs and wages reports presents a crucial opportunity for the Fed’s next move. 

November 4

  • Stocks see-saw as an early morning rally gave way to some sunshine.
  • The Dow rose 402 points as the S&P gained 0.96% and the Nasdaq climbed 1.56%.
  • The early-day rally was not enough to recover the week’s losses but it gave investors a bit of a breather as Wall Street awaits next week’s economic data. 

November 7

  • Wall Street kicked off the week with a strong and broad rally as confidence in some big tech names added to the forward momentum.
  • The Dow jumped 424 points, the S&P rose 0.96%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.11%
  • Investors prepare for an eventful week with the midterm elections and crucial inflation data coming out on Thursday. 

November 8

  • A fairly broad based rally continues for a second day with investors hoping that the elections will even-out the bipartisan fiscal environment that some investors see as tilted toward the Democrat side.
  • The Dow rose 334 points while the S&P and Nasdaq gained 0.56% and 0.75%.
  • Amgen surged 6%, powered the Dow Jones Industrial Index while Lyft stocks plummeted 22% after its quarterly earnings showed slowing revenue growth. 

November 9

  • Midterm election results and a major cryptocurrency collapse sent tremors throughout the market. 
  • FTX, the world’s third-largest exchange is reported to be near insolvency. The repercussions of this collapse, with billions of dollars in losses, may reveal toxic exposure that can reverberate on an industry-wide scale.
  • The Dow fell 647 points, the S&P lost 2.08%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq suffered the most losses, down 2.37%. 
  • A seemingly Democratic victory, erasing hopes of an expected “Red Wave'', along with Bitcoin falling 20% brought the market into the red as consumers prepared for Thursday’s inflation data. 
  • Note that the so-called Crypto Winter is starting to look like a Crypto Ice Age should FTX’s collapse contaminate exposed financial firms in the industry. 

November 10

  • Stocks were off to the races as tame inflation data gave consumers hope that prices may be peaking.
  • The Dow surged a whopping 1,201 points followed by the S&P rising 5.54%, and the Nasdaq with a dramatic 7.74% gain.
  • The CPI data showed a 5.5% gain, much lower than anticipated, giving people hope that the Fed might slow down its pace on rate hikes.


November 11

  • The Market followed yesterday's wild rally with very modest gains; the major averages now face their best week since June.
  • The Dow drifted a meager 32 points higher while the S&P gained 0.92% and the Nasdaq went up 1.82%, the biggest winner for the day. 
  • Optimism continued to pervade Wall Street as the latest inflation data, nes of China easing up on its Covid lockdown, and Russia retreating from the city of Kherson brought investors some hope that the global picture, though bad, may not be as stormy as some had feared.

November 14

  • The markets remained indecisive before giving way to the downside in the last hours of the trading session.
  • The Dow closed down 211 points; the S&P and Nasdaq were also lower by 0.89% and 0.98% respectively. 
  • Fed governor Christopher Waller stressed that despite the low CPI reading the Fed will continue its tightening cycle on the economy.
  • China stocks rallied with news that the government was taking measures to help buoy the country’s crumbling real estate market. 

November 15

  • Stocks rode into the green throughout the day mounted on lower-than-expected PPI readings. 
  • Though the Dow had a slight gain of 56 points, the S&P went up 0.87% and the Nasdaq stocks increased by 1.45%.
  • Both low CPI readings from the previous week along with low PPI readings enforced the hope that inflation was easing; remember that PPI reports manufacturing costs, and an easing in costs may mean stable, if not lower, consumer costs in the near future.

November 16

  • The market was red for the day with retailers down as the biggest shopping season of the year hits amid a still-painful inflationary environment.
  • The Dow slipped a mere 0.12% while the S&P went down 0.83%, and the Nasdaq suffered a 1.45% loss.
  • Though retailers drifted downward, monthly retail sales increased; yes, a confusing picture. 
  • However, the major averages maintained their current (higher) levels for the month, showing a potential second green month in a row.

November 17

  • Wall Street drifted lower as Fed hawkishness continued to take center stage.
  • The Dow ended off the day virtually unchanged but with a mere 8-point loss; the S&P and Nasdaq fell 0.31% and 0.19%, respectively. 
  • Wall Street fears that the Fed’s unwillingness to slow rate hikes might stamp out any rallies that, essentially, are riding more on optimism than fundamentals. Remember that there’s a lag between Fed policy decisions and its consequential economic effects. Everything in between is more or less speculative. 

November 18

  • Stocks climbed moderately, ending in the green by the close of the day as retailers reported earnings higher than expected.
  • Dow stocks climbed nearly 200 points and the S&P went up 0.48% while the Nasdaq ended virtually unchanged. 
  • Low inflation reports and mixed retail data shaped the flow of the market for the week as health and utilities were the top daily performers while energy and consumer discretionary performed the worst. 

November 21

  • Stocks started off the week on a static note with the indexes drifting slowly into the red. 
  • The Dow slipped 45 points with the S&P down 0.39% and the Nasdaq 1.06% lower. 
  • The S&P remains in the range of 3940 and 4000 which can be perceived as resistance to the strong rebound of the October bear market or as a loss of momentum in the face of technical resistance and an unclear view of 2023’s economic outlook. 

November 22

  • Satisfying results from big retailers and a rebound in energy stocks created tailwinds that pushed the market higher to a 10-week closing high. 
  • The Dow gained 398 points along with the S&P (+1.36%) and Nasdaq (1.48%) rising in modesty. 
  • Big retailers reported results that met expectations while Fed officials cautiously spoke about how much higher interest rates need to go. 

November 23

  • The market climbed just a day before Thanksgiving with bond yields dropping due to the appearance of a more passive Fed.
  • Dow stocks rose 96 points while the S&P advanced 1.36% and the Nasdaq managed a 1.48% gain. 
  • With consumer activity proving stronger than anticipated and a balanced-looking labor market showing modest signs of decline, investors are hoping that the pace of Fed rate hikes may take a less-aggressive mode. 

November 25

  • An optimistic Federal Reserve and a resurgence in Covid cases in China gave Wall Street a mixed case of indigestion, particularly as the holiday-packed week came to a strong close. 
  • Though the Nasdaq went down 0.70%, the S&P slipped a mere 0.03% and the Dow clawed a gain of 0.45%. 
  • Bond yields fell and rate-sensitive sectors flourished; crude oil prices, meanwhile, slipped further, easing inflationary pressures but also warning that the lockdown in China may have a significant near-term impact on global production and growth.

November 28

  • Covid unrest in China set the tone for the day as stocks slipped at the opening of the week. 
  • The Dow fell 497 points while the S&P (-1.54%) and Nasdaq (-1.43%) suffered notable losses. 
  • Companies with notable ties to China’s manufacturing sector took a hit while a handful of Chinese shares rose. Worries about the i-phone supply chain dragged Apple shares down for the day. 

November 29

  • Stocks fell modestly with the Dow losing 14 points, the S&P pulling back 0.16% and the Nasdaq shedding 0.79%. 
  • Consumer Confidence came in at 100.2, lower than October’s 102.5 but matching analyst expectations.
  • Home prices are down 1.2% as expected though still higher 10.4% from a year ago, indicating that inflation in the real estate market may be easing but that prices are still relatively high even as mortgage rates rise.

November 30

  • The S&P gains as Fed Chair Jerome Power confirmed the central bank will slow the pace of its aggressive rate-hiking campaign; an issue that has been weighing heavily on markets.
  • The S&P 500 added 0.2% after Powell's remarks; the Nasdaq gained 0.7%, and the Dow Jones gained 65 points.


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*Details regarding DT Rider M1C ES v2:

Please be aware that the suggested capital to trade this system is $20,000. Please speak to your broker for more information about this trading system. The returns for the systems listed are hypothetical in that they represent returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data.

 

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

 

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.


There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures, options and forex. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Margins are subject to change at anytime without notice. All material herein was compiled from sources considered reliable. However, there is no expressed or implied warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this material.