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Welcome to the Newsletter of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung's Latin American Network for Inclusive Security

Harris, Trump, and Latin America

The U.S. elections next November pose major concerns for the international system.

If former President Donald Trump wins, it can be expected that he will continue with his policy of disinterest towards Latin America, putting maximum pressure on Mexico, Central America, and Venezuela to prevent the departure or crossing of migrants into the US.

Likewise, he will push for the highest profits for his country's companies and access to resources (particularly minerals) under the best conditions and will demand governments in the region not to enter into economic relations and other agreements with China. Human rights and democracy issues will be relegated to the back burner, and he will strengthen relations with far-right politicians.

If it is Kamala Harris who wins the Presidency, and manages to govern despite a predictable, organized, and violent refusal by Republicans to recognize that victory, her priorities, not necessarily her policies, will partly coincide with those of a Republican administration.

One difference will be that Harris will seek to regain a regional sense of democracy and development. This regional vision (which the U.S. always euphemistically called "hemispheric") has been lost due to Washington's disinterest in the region for decades, and to the relationships that various Latin American countries have established with China, Europe, and Russia outside of U.S. influence, concerning alliances with democratic and moderate governments in Latin America.

Harris will also try to cut off China, get the best terms for commercial exchange and access to resources for the U.S., and will adopt restrictive measures, as she has already announced, towards immigration. On this complicated issue she will try to synthesize tough measures with decent treatment of immigrants, but the strategy will be to prevent large-scale arrivals.

Her background as a prosecutor in judicial cases against organized crime may help combat this growing problem in the region. A big question is how she will influence the behavior of governments such as Ecuador and Argentina so that they do not follow the "iron fist" model of President Bukele in El Salvador. Instead, they should combine democracy, rule of law, respect for human rights with the control of civilian power over the military.

The challenge will be very great if the Pentagon continues to have a high degree of autonomy in establishing its forms of relationship with the local armed forces. And nothing suggests that this will change.

If the line to be followed by Washington is a "war on crime" in the same way that the "war on drugs" has been for the past decades, then the prospects for militarization in the region to prevail over democratic procedures are ample.

Finally, given the general trend in the U.S. after the failures in Afghanistan and Iraq (and further back in Vietnam), it is difficult for either Trump or Harris to practice military interventionism. As in the Venezuelan case, they will resort to sanctions and eventual economic pressures, if they can be carried out without affecting vital U.S. interests.

Harris will come to the White House with a set of values, and she will implement them, as President Joe Biden has done, but adapting them to the geopolitical circumstances of global tension with China and Russia. If Trump is the winner, he will set aside Harris's values, good manners, and difficult conciliatory attempts. His policy towards the region will develop between disinterest, support for authoritarianism, and lack of a regional vision of common problems.

Mariano Aguirre

Advisor

Latin American Network for Inclusive Security

Defense in the China-LAC relationship

Xulio Ríos, emeritus advisor to the Observatory of China Policy and Casa Asia (Spain), explores in Defense in the China-LAC relationship, the cooperation between China and Latin American countries. Military cooperation is an important area for the development of relations with its strategic partners and has four main axes, in which it is increasing: declarations that undermine Washington's strategic pre-eminence; cooperation in strategic areas; military exchanges; and donation and sale of military equipment and weaponry.

In the context of Beijing's strategy, the triangular relationship between the U.S., China, and Latin America is a matter of concern. The Wilson Center discussed with several experts the four years of the 2020 U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement-USMCA, which is due for review in 2026, including China's role in the new trade and security triangulations in the region. There is also curiosity among analysts about the possible outcomes of U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's visit in late August. A relevant book on the subject: China and Latin America. Development, Agency and Geopolitics, by Chris Alden and Alvaro Mendez, Bloomsbury, London, 2023.

The unexpected turn of events in the U.S. election campaign, which led to current Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the presidential candidate, has raised questions about what her policy towards Latin America, Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico might be.

In a podcast by The Americas Quarterly, Roberta S. Jacobson, who worked with Harris at the State Department, describes her ideas - which she defines as aimed at building strong alliances, protecting human rights, promoting development and combating organized crime. In the conversation she also addressed her stance towards China in the region and explains her role in dealing with the underlying causes of emigration from Central America to the U.S.

Harris' background and possible guidelines are discussed in Latin American Advisor (The Dialogue) by Maria José Espinosa Carrillo, executive director of the Center for Democracy in the Americas; Vanda Felbab-Brown, senior fellow for foreign policy at the Brookings Institution; and Stephanie Brewer, director for Mexico at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA).

Juan Gabriel Tokatlian applies the theories of international relations to current issues: the rise of the far-right, the Russia-Ukraine wars, the Israel-Palestine conflict and the role of religion in politics, among other topics, with recommendations for Argentine and Latin American foreign policy.

The region faces serious simultaneous crises in its decaying political systems. There is no capacity on the part of the countries to resolve their bilateral and regional conflicts, and there is a lack of capacity to influence the major issues of the international system, especially its wars. The region is increasingly marginalized in global affairs and lacks the capacity to act jointly on the priority issues of the international agenda.

The Israeli-Palestinian War is one of the key issues. This article explores the current situation, the changes in the practice of international mediation, and the emergence of new actors, to ask about the possibilities of a negotiated solution to the conflict and the possible role of Brazil. It is part of the latest issue of the Brazilian Journal for International Affairs (from the think-tank CEBRI), which reviews the effects of the Gaza war in Brazil and in the field of peace.

The military's growing political activism, sometimes accompanied by significant commercial activities, is giving the armed forces significant roles in the political trajectory of several countries. The Military and Private Business Actors in the Global South: The Politics of Market Access, a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, addresses cases such as Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Marcos Robledo and Antonio Ramalho delve into military-private sector relations in Brazil and their evolution in recent decades. Among its social, political and economic effects, democratic consolidation is put at risk, and civil-military relations and the prestige of the Armed Forces among the population deteriorate.

The post-election context in Mexico has relaunched debates on the security policy of the new government to be headed by Claudia Sheinbaum and on the judicial reform launched by the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in February 2024.

In this conversation with expert Sergio Aguayo, he argues that “in security matters, Claudia Sheinbaum should try to replicate what she did in Mexico City on a nationwide scale.” Aguayo has delved into the new government's security institutions and the role of the state (both articles require a subscription).

The heart of the proposed judicial reform is the election by popular vote of magistrates, ministers, and judges at the federal level. In the world, only Bolivia applies a similar method. The document “Judicial Reform in Mexico. Urgent Map for Debate” evaluates the Bolivian judicial reform to venture what could happen in Mexico if this idea is put into practice. In this sense, WOLA warns about the risks to human rights, and points to a setback in the fight against impunity and the deepening of penal populism.

The Institute for Research on Public Administration and Institutional Innovation (APII) of the Universidad de las Américas Puebla (UDLAP) has presented the Platform for Institutional Change Scenarios to Combat Impunity, in which projections for the development of institutional capacities for 14 indicators in the states of the republic are pointed out. The objective is to advance in the institutional change that Mexico requires to face the serious problems in the areas of security, justice, and human rights.

A new book on human rights in this country is San Fernando, Última Parada: Viaje al crimen autorizado en Tamaulipas, by Marcela Turati (Aguilar, México D.F., 2024). In April 2011, Mexican soldiers discovered mass graves in San Fernando, a city of about 30,000 people in the northeastern state of Tamaulipas. One hundred and ninety-three bodies were exhumed and moved to the border city of Matamoros. Its devastating account of the case, as the New York Review of Books states, explains how and why hundreds of young men were kidnapped and murdered.

Last July, FES Chile published and presented a study by Professor Claudio Fuentes (PhD in Political Science) and sociologist and Master's student, Pedro Valenzuela, based on a survey in 345 communes of the country upon request for transparency (75.6% responded). They inquired about the security policies and actions that have been implemented there. The analysis yielded various results, among which those communes with more resources stood out, but also others where neighbors have been fundamental in encouraging their mayors' offices to take charge of the demand for more and better security. The study was publicly presented with academic and official participation, among other sectors. A key aspect was the use of certain “rankings” in tables within the publication. Several municipalities that were highlighted disseminated the information on their networks as a form of accountability towards the local elections to be held this coming October.

The controversial election results in Venezuela at the end of July have been followed by government measures to stay in power, while Edmundo González and María Corina Machado try to keep the mobilization alive. The International Crisis Group ponders what comes after the elections. Three analysts explore options and scenarios in Le Grand Continent.

WOLA participated in a video chat with the Gabo Foundation on what's next for Venezuela and what are the implications for journalistic ethics? In addition, several authors analyze the loss of judicial independence in the face of crimes against humanity in Approaches to Impunity in Venezuela..

The diplomatic dialogue initiative led by Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico (and later abandoned by the latter) is explored with an analysis of the internal factors for and against the strategy in Brazil.

Professor Rut Diamint wonders what role the international community, especially Latin American countries, can play in Venezuela.

Finally, this podcast from the Instituto para la Acción Estratégica No Violenta en las Américas analyzes nonviolent actions during electoral periods in Venezuela.

The total peace, sought by the government of Gustavo Petro with a strategy aimed at guaranteeing the integrity and welfare of citizens through simultaneous negotiations with all armed actors that generate violence in the country, faces difficulties and unfavorable future scenarios. This article by Catalina Niño, FES author, examines its main outlines, future scenarios and main difficulties.

Cynthia Arnson, former director of the Latin America section of the Woodrow Wilson Center, adds further complexity to the scenario. While the U.S. and Colombia are strategic allies and partners, Washington is concerned about the partial or negative results of the drug policies conducted so far, and the inability to guarantee security in rural areas of the country.

Manuel Orozco, puts the spotlight on Nicaragua's complex political situation. The urgent challenge of changing the balance of power demands targeted sanctions, accountability of international financial institutions, supporting the diaspora as an agent of change, and exerting more pressure with the Ley Renacer. From within, there are examples of resistance and nonviolent action by the peasant movement within Nicaragua.

The first Kenyan troops of the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS) have begun deploying to Haiti amidst hope and skepticism given the failure of previous similar missions. Violence has plagued the country for the past three years and gangs have extended their territorial control, but in addition to these international troops, the country now has a multi-party Presidential Council, new prime minister and new government, i.e. a more inclusive leadership. Although limited, it is a window of opportunity. (Last November Charli Carpenter analyzed the possibilities of this Mission in this Newsletter).

Migration in Colombia and the Darien shows immense challenges. Organized crime controls migrant routes through Colombia. The state is absent from border areas, such as this one between Colombia and Panama. The challenges of integrating Venezuelan migrants and refugees continue, which could increase if the U.S. imposes sanctions on the Caracas government. From Washington, the promise of greater cooperation is combined with pressures to minimize migrant flows, while Colombia and other countries along the migratory route have very scarce resources, and in some cases little political will.

The increasing complexity of mixed movements in Latin America and the Caribbean has led to several initiatives to improve response through coordination. This study is a joint initiative of DG-ECHO, AECID and IOM, together with UNHCR and OCHA, and with the support of the LAC MRD Coalition, IFRC and UNDCO, and examines inter-agency coordination mechanisms to respond to mixed movements in the region. The objective is to improve their effectiveness, address gaps and strengthen good practices of coordination mechanisms. There is also a mapping, both in English and Spanish.

In its series of podcasts, the Institute for Strategic Nonviolent Action in the Americas (FLACSO, Ecuador) has mapped indigenous nonviolent actions in Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia. This FLACSO Ecuador colloquium analyzes the role of indigenous peoples in peace building in Latin America.

The IECAH Institute organizes the lecture series Latin America. Perspectives on a region in transformation. From November 5 to 11, 2024, at La Casa Encendida (Madrid). The sessions will be held on-site but will later be available online.

The Institute for Strategic Nonviolent Action in the Americas (FLACSO) offers two courses, one in Spanish and one in Portuguese.

1) Course in Spanish

Virtual Regional Capacity Building Program "El poder de la gente: la dinámica estratégica de la resistencia no violenta".

The dates will be from October 2 to November 27, 2024. They will be held asynchronously on the online platform.

Contents

· 8 modules in 8 weeks, focused on the understanding of strategic nonviolent resistance, its dynamics, strength, strategy and effectiveness, through several cases in Latin America and the Caribbean.

· Ideas on new frontiers in the study and practice of civil resistance.

· Access to an extensive digital library on nonviolent resistance in Latin America, the Caribbean and the world.

· Connect with a community of academics, activists, practitioners from different countries with experience in civil resistance.

· Interact with facilitators who are experts in nonviolent resistance issues and rely on their guidance.

· Obtain a certificate or a proof of participation.

· For information: accionnoviolentaamericas@gmail.com

· Registration here: https://forms.gle/oMxPHy4yNUm3GRos5

2) Course in Portuguese

Virtual Regional Training Program: “O poder do povo: a dinámica estratégica da resistência não-violenta”

Este curso oferece uma oportunidade única de aprender sobre a resistência não-violenta e a dinâmica estratégica por trás do poder do povo. Desenvolva suas habilidades e participe de discussões enriquecedoras com especialistas renomados na área.

· Datas do curso: 2 de outubro a 27 de novembro de 2024

· Como se inscrever: https://forms.gle/ryVXVbiK4QTAQa4s7

· Prazo para inscrições: 15 de setembro de 2024

Para mais informações ou dúvidas, entre em contato conosco por e-mail: accionnoviolentaamericas@gmail.com

[This course offers a unique opportunity to learn about nonviolent resistance and the strategic dynamics behind people power. Develop your skills and participate in enriching discussions with renowned specialists in the area.

· Course dates: October 2 to November 27, 2024

· How to register: https://forms.gle/ryVXVbiK4QTAQa4s7

· Deadline for applications: September 15, 2024

· For further information or questions, please contact us by e-mail: accionnoviolentaamericas@gmail.com]

The newsletter of the Latin American Network of United States Research (RELEU, by its Spanish acronym) is available for free and has numerous resources. To obtain it, please write to Tatiana Carlotti (tcarlotti@gmail.com)

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Newsletter of the Latin American Network for Inclusive Security

Edited by Mariano Aguirre and Mabel González Bustelo

Translated by Yenni Castro (Valestra Editorial)

More information: MariaAlejandra.Rico@fes.de

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