We are finally caught up with planting in Arkansas—a welcome sign to all farmers, processors, and industry members. Despite the return to normal after poor weather that severely delayed planting, it will still be a victory to exceed 1 million acres of long and medium grain combined in the state. There is concern that the later planted rice will follow historical trends and yield slightly less than normal, but this is a tradeoff all are willing to accept given the other option of no rice at all. The core domestic business continues to be the primary driver looking forward for milled rice, as Iraq has found ample supplies in Asia and Haiti’s political disruptions prevent bookings and subsequent distribution to the Haitian people.

Although export demand for U.S. long grain rice is down only 2.6% year to date, it would be down roughly 10% if the Iraqi business didn’t materialize. In other words, exports to most other origins are off this year. As Brazil concludes harvest and looks to merchandise its rice, the U.S. can expect ongoing stiff competition in Mexico and Central America. Just this month, Mexico has declared an emergency because of the increasing food costs. As a result, the Mexican government announced the removal of most import duties on food supplies. This includes paddy rice of any origin for several CAFTA countries where tariffs are going to zero in order to suppress food inflation. This will further erode the U.S. market share because of our higher prices. In the case of Mexico, the duty free import measure for rice is only on rough rice and milled rice was not included in the new policy. These set of conditions will make for interesting discussions at the Rice Market & Technology Convention scheduled for May 31 - June 2 in Cancun, Mexico where more than 175 rice businesses have registered to attend.

The rice world is wrought with complications. Front and center are the disproportionate impacts of the fuel and fertilizer costs to rice vs. other crops like corn and beans. This problem is only exacerbated by the hamstrung wheat trade, courtesy of the Russia invasion. Most analysts expect the volatility to worsen as we move into the Fall. Water shortages in Pakistan are having a large impact on rice growing provinces, such as Punjab and Sindh, which will likely hinder output from this region. However, there is no sign that India will reduce their production or exports, further depressing export prices for rice worldwide.

In Myanmar, the government surprisingly decided to modify the rate of the kyat to the detriment of exporters. This forex restriction has ultimately made the country less competitive in the global market restricting them to border trade only. To make matters worse, Myanmar farmers cultivated fewer acres due to poorer economics; higher fuel costs, fertilizer, and chemical costs, not to mention credit issues, are all factors that have driven rice prices higher. 

In Thailand, prices have remained similar to last week around $445pmt, and they are home to Iraq’s purchases for the time being. Vietnam is cheaper, in the $415-$420pmt range, keeping busy fulfilling Filipino demand. With these prices from Thailand and Vietnam, one would think that India would be interested in raising prices; however, they remain at a discount of at least $65pmt in comparison. The subsidies given to farmers to produce the record quantities and the subsequent exports make it extremely difficult for other origins to be competitive.

The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 13,100 MT this week, down 55% from the previous week and 57% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Canada (4,000 MT), Honduras (3,700 MT), Guatemala (3,000 MT), and Mexico (2,000 MT), were offset by reductions for Haiti (300 MT). Exports of 24,200 MT were down 47% from the previous week and 53% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Haiti (13,200 MT), Mexico (3,300 MT), Canada (3,300 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT), and Honduras (1,000 MT).

On May 13, the new Directors of Texas A&M AgriLife, Cliff Lamb, Director of Research and Rick Avery, Director of Extension, along with Dan Hale, Assistant Director of Ag and Natural Resources, spent the day with the Texas rice industry.

Stops included The Wintermann Rice Research Station in Eagle Lake, the LG Raun Farm near Round Mott, lunch with the Western Rice Belt Conference Planning Committee at Rice Belt Warehouse in El Campo, tour of the Rice Belt Facilities and ANF Air Service near Garwood to visit with crop consultants, Raymond Rabius Farm and drying and storage facility, near East Bernard, and supper with the Texas Rice Research Foundation and Texas Rice Council at Hlavinka's Equipment in East Bernard.

The directors learned about the Texas rice industry. At supper they gave a summary of what they had seen and heard throughout the day and discussed next steps moving forward for the Texas rice industry to be better served by AgriLife Research and Extension.

The Texas rice industry would like to express its appreciation to the directors spending the day in rice country, and look forward to an effective partnership to better the Texas rice industry.

House Passes Ukraine Supplemental Assistance

On Tuesday, the House introduced and passed a bill for supplemental assistance for the Ukraine conflict. While the House’s version included $7 billion more in total spending than the President’s plan, it drastically reduced the agricultural provisions to only include $100 million for in-kind food aid. The House version did not include crop insurance and loan marketing assistance. The bill passed on a bipartisan 358-57 vote.

White House Introduces Plan to Support Domestic Agriculture

Responding to supply chain disruptions and price increases, on Wednesday the White House introduced a plan to lower costs for farmers. Most notably, the plan includes increasing the investment in domestic fertilizer production to $500 million.

House Agriculture Committee Welcomes New Member

The House Agriculture Committee announced Rep. Marcy Kaptur would be joining the House Agriculture Committee. Rep. Kaptur is a Democrat representing northern Ohio who also serves on the Appropriations Committee.

House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee Holds a Hearing on the USDA Budget Request

This week the House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee held a hearing on the President’s FY23 budget request for USDA. During the hearing, members and Secretary Vilsack emphasized investments in rural America, supply chain and cost concerns, and climate and conservation.

USTR Announces New Chief of Staff

On Monday, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office announced Heather Hurlburt as the agency’s new chief of staff. Hurlburt replaces Ginna Lance, who has held the role since February 2021.