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US stock futures mixed as traders await jobs data crucial for Fed’s rate outlook.

Paring back | European stocks and US futures fluctuated ahead of key American jobs data that will help determine the path for interest rates. An oil price rally extended after spiraling tensions in the Middle East led to the biggest one-day jump in almost a year. Treasuries were flat after selling off on Thursday, and an index of dollar strength was set for the biggest weekly gain in nearly six months as traders pared back expectations for aggressive US rate cuts.

Eyes on Jobs | Economists anticipate that hiring picked up slightly in September while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. This would assuage concerns that labor demand is deteriorating, something Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said he wouldn’t want to see. Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 150,000 last month, up from 142,000 in August and the most in four months. Softer hiring and a rise in the jobless rate earlier this year were major drivers behind the Fed’s decision to start its policy-easing campaign last month.

Crude concerns | Oil headed for its strongest weekly increase in more than a year on fears that Israel may decide to strike Iranian petroleum facilities in retaliation for a missile assault on its territory. Brent extended gains Friday after surging 5% a day earlier as President Joe Biden said the US was discussing whether to support potential attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. A US official said later the administration was still in talks with Israel and believed no decision had yet been taken. Crude has soared almost 9% this week as the escalation of hostilities raises the possibility of disruption to Middle East oil supplies.

Up & coming | Industrial production figures from France and Spain are due. As for central bank speakers, the ECB's Guindos, Kazaks, Muller, Escriva and Villeroy appear. National Bank of Poland publishes minutes of September rate meeting.

The September US jobs report, which will be released Friday, is set to be a key piece of data informing the thinking of Fed policymakers and investors. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the unemployment rate is predicted to hold steady at 4.2%, while month-on-month payrolls growth is tipped to be around 150,000, up slightly from the previous month’s 142,000.

Illustration: Dan Page | The Wall Street Journal

Dollar gains as ADP shows better-than-expected jobs gains

The dollar hit a three-week high against the euro on Wednesday after the ADP national employment report showed US private payrolls increased more than expected in September, ahead of Friday's highly anticipated jobs data. (Reuters | Oct 2) see also Middle East uncertainty after Iran attack makes for tricky trading (Reuters Oct 2)

Fed governor calls for 'consensus' on AI regulation

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook today called for a consensus to be reached in the regulation of artificial intelligence, which she sees as poised to have a “substantial effect” on US and global markets. In a speech at a Fed event in Atlanta, Cook said she anticipates an increase in productivity because of AI. However, there remains substantial uncertainty in that forecast because of the nature of adaptation to new technology, as well as from policy decisions that govern the process, she said. (ABA Banking Journal | Oct 1)

The big shift from salaries to bonus-based pay

More Americans are in jobs where a chunk of their pay isn’t guaranteed. The practice has long been common for salespeople and top brass. Yet apart from the yearly raise — and for some, an annual bonus—the vast majority of the workforce makes the same amount every payday. Now, more companies are trying to get the most out of rising payroll costs by making a part of workers’ pay contingent on completing prescribed goals. (The Wall Street Journal | Sep 30)

Fed drives global push to cut rates despite questions over 2025

With the last traces of the global inflation shock fading, the shift toward lower borrowing costs is about to maintain momentum as economies tread toward a new year fraught with unknowns. Now that the US Federal Reserve has joined rich-world peers with its own initial interest-rate cut, lingering worries about consumer prices are increasingly poised to give way to concerns about growth around the world. (Bloomberg Economics - Central Banks | Sep 30)

Fed's Powell poised to speak as economists fret about a policy mistake

A mistake by the US central bank in setting interest rates during the last phase of its inflation battle is the leading risk that could undercut the economy over the next year, according to a new survey of economists released as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was set to speak on Monday. Among 32 professional forecasters surveyed recently by the National Association for Business Economics, 39% cited a "monetary policy mistake" as the "greatest downside risk to the US economy over the next 12 months." (Reuters | Sep 30)

Before the SEC’s cyber disclosure rules went into effect, companies worried that the simple act of divulging a hack in a public document would depress their share prices. It hasn’t happened. Photo: Stephanie Keith/Getty Images

What is the market impact of the SEC's cyber disclosure rules? Not much.

Before the Securities and Exchange Commission's stricter cybersecurity rules went into effect, companies worried that reporting a hack in a public document would depress their share prices. It hasn’t happened. “The market and investors have maybe almost started to price in cyber incidents as something that’s a normal course of business now,” said Adam Wisnieski, practice leader for cyber strategy and risk-management services at Optiv, a cybersecurity advisory company.

— The Wall Street Journal

Rough patch: CrowdStrike sparks an auto-update debate

When it comes to minimising cyber threats, speed is of the essence. If companies delay vital updates to software, they leave themselves exposed to hackers. Which is why the automatic update approach used by major cyber security vendor CrowdStrike looked like a good idea. Until it didn’t. In July this year, when a faulty patch – a targeted update – caused its clients’ operating systems to crash, there was little companies could do to stop it because the updating process was automatic.

— Risk

Russian ransomware gang worked with Kremlin spies, UK says

A Russian criminal gang secretly conducted cyberattacks and espionage operations against NATO allies on the orders of the Kremlin’s intelligence services, according to the UK’s National Crime Agency. Evil Corp., which includes a leader who gained notoriety for driving a Lamborghini luxury sports car, launched the hacks prior to 2019, the NCA said in statement on Tuesday. The NCA’s statement came amid an internationally coordinated effort to punish Evil Corp.’s alleged members with sanctions and, in the US, an indictment.

— Bloomberg Technology | Cybersecurity

Illustration: The Wall Street Journal | iStock

Money buys happiness, even if you're already rich

A wealth of research has long shown that more money makes a big difference to people with low pay, moving them from insecurity to stability. Above that level, the effect is often assumed to be much smaller. But according to a paper by Matt Killingsworth, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, the bonuses and leaps in income high earners reap are so large that they keep adding to well-being in the same way that smaller pay bumps do at lower tiers of earnings.

— The Wall Street Journal

The $ecret $auce to getting on the world's 50 best hotels

The same group that anoints restaurants and bars recently convened in London’s Guildhall to pronounce what they have determined to be the 50 most impeccable places to stay around the world. It’s a challenge that necessitates comparing apples and oranges. To get on the World’s 50 Best list, you need money. The organizers of the list will tell you repeatedly that there is no “pay for play” here. And directly, there isn’t: It would be a scandal if any hotelier was paying off the World’s 50 Best team for their place on the list.

— Bloomberg Pursuits

Do the right thing: Building trust in turbulent times

What is the proper role of business in society? The answer to this seemingly abstract question is more hotly contested today than at any other time in the past 50 years. In a world of climate change and ecological collapse, fewer customers and employees are satisfied with the position, famously summarized by economist Milton Friedman, that the only social responsibility of business is to increase its profits, while staying within the law. Many would like to see corporations go further. But how far? And in which directions?

— Strategy + Business