Racers:
Based on the weather models we have available to go by as of 2:00 p.m. May 10th, 2019 we feel like it is the best decision (for everyone involved) to move the race to May 18th, 2019. It is a tough decision on our end but as we have racers coming from all over the Southeastern U.S. we feel like we have to get the information out earlier rather than later so each of you can make travel plans. I know most of you are tired of racing on wet trails as well so hopefully this will allow some relief for you (thanks for your feedback)! I fully understand the skies may part and we have great race conditions for tomorrow and I wish I could wait until we walk to the starting line in the morning to make the decision but with all the moving parts I do not feel like we can do so.
We have Received Detailed Weather Reports from AMB Weather (see below) and as of right now it looks like there is still a high percentage chance of Rain and Thunderstorms leading up to Race Start Time and Throughout the Day on Saturday. Again, we have met with the Park Officials as well as the Yargo Trail Crew and discussed the current weather forecast and feel like this decision is the best based on the information we currently have available.
Changes from the Previous Forecast Increased probabilities of rain for Saturday.
Discussion
Computer models still not totally agreeing on the timing of the next 2 waves of rain, but there is some consensus that rain will occur tonight and Saturday. The area of rain over Louisiana and Mississippi is expected to slide into Tennessee and not affect Fort Yargo. However, another wave getting ready to move onshore near Louisiana is expected to move over north Georgia late tonight and then slow down or stall Saturday morning. As it does it will weaken a bit Saturday morning, possibly giving a window of time for lowered chances of rain between 7 AM and 11 AM. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop toward noon and continue intermittently through the afternoon. A few storms Saturday afternoon could be severe with damaging winds being the main threat.
Expected rainfall
Tonight: less than 0.50"
Saturday morning: around 0.25"
Saturday afternoon: 0.50-0.60"
Rainfall from last nights rain at Fort Yargo: 0.25"
Confidence
High on rain tonight and Saturday.
Medium to high on the timing of rain Saturday.
Low to medium on the threat of severe storms Saturday afternoon
Please Note From your Signed Waiver. NO REFUNDS: I understand that the entry fee is non-refundable and non-transferable. I also understand the Event(s) will take place rain or shine, at Race Director’s discretion. Race may also be postponed due to natural hazards uncontrollable by Race Director. If race is postponed for any reason, there are no refunds and entry fee will be forwarded to the rescheduled date.
I will send a confirmation e-mail on Wednesday, May 15th, 2019 about next weekends race (race will be moved to Picnic Shelter Number 5 for next weekend).
Thanks in Advance for Your Understanding, Support and Patience!
