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In This Issue:
- Market Update: Forecast of Wet Weather Continues in Key Long Grain Region
- Washington, D.C. Update
- USRPA Joins Mother's Day Celebration in Guatemala
- Discover What’s Ahead at RMTC 2025
- Photo from Rice Country
| | Forecast of Wet Weather Continues in Key Long Grain Region | | |
Planting is wrapping up in some states, while it’s going full speed in California. Overall, we are still ahead of schedule, and the total acres lost is looking to be closer to 300,000 acres in total, the majority coming from Arkansas where the intense flooding took out a majority of these acres. More direct impact in the coming weeks on total acreage loss expectations. It remains difficult to find any cash prices, and futures have been on the doldrums too. Recent USDA reports indicate a lack of accurate and transparent stocks and made no adjustment for acreage in the Delta due to preventive planting and constant wet weather.
It's raining now in northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri, and severe storms are predicted for the days ahead. With a conservative acreage and production reduction, combined with a confirmed lower stock report reducing old crop carryover, ending stocks would be reduced significantly even with conservative numbers. We realize the USDA requires solid data, as they say. Lower supply certainly supports price and the USDA for now appears to be saying higher supplies are ahead of us. This market and especially rice farmers need this information in the marketplace. These current market conditions are the most difficult since the 1980s.
The large crop in South America is putting a weight on new U.S. crop expectations. A number of recent sales out of Argentina, Paraguay, and particularly Uruguay have been confirmed to Mexico and Central America. Foreign exchange with Brazil is keeping those prices $10-$12 per ton FOB above its neighbors for now.
The most recent Grain: World Markets and Trade report shows global rice production is projected to hit a record 538.7 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last year. The increase is led by India, which maintains its position as the top producer for a second straight year, thanks to strong government support. China is also expected to slightly increase output. Together, these two countries contribute over 50% of the world’s rice production.
Global consumption is also forecast to reach a record 538.8 million tons, up 6.1 million tons from the prior year. India’s consumption will hit a record 125.0 million tons, supported by government food programs and limited use in ethanol production. In China, consumption remains steady, with low feed use and cheaper coarse grains influencing demand. Growing populations are driving increased consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East.
Global rice ending stocks are forecast nearly unchanged at 185.1 million tons, with China and India holding 80% of reserves due to public stockpiling. U.S. ending stocks are projected to rise 6% thanks to higher beginning stocks, while China and Thailand also expect stock gains.
In the Western Hemisphere, imports are expected to increase modestly. The U.S. will likely import more due to demand for specific varieties, and Mexico’s imports are driven by population growth and reduced supply of alternative grains. Brazil, however, may reduce imports as domestic prices stay competitive.
| | The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 29,900 mt this week, down 49% from the previous week and 11% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 71,900 MT were up 67% from the previous week and 28% from the prior 4-week average. | | |
House Ag Advances Reconciliation Bill Out of Committee
Starting Tuesday night and lasting until Wednesday evening, the House Agriculture Committee held a marathon markup of its budget reconciliation text, complying with the instructions given by the House Budget Committee in H. Con. Res. 14 Section 2001(b)(1) to cut a net of $230 billion within the Committee’s jurisdiction.
After nearly a 15-hour process, the Committee ended up reporting the bill favorably out of Committee on a party-line vote of 29-25. While the Committee was instructed to cut $230 billion, the bill reflected a score closer to $300 billion in cuts in order to reinvest the additional $60-70 billion in savings across all titles of the farm bill except for Title IV (Nutrition), where most cuts were focused. Republicans defended the rescissions to the nutrition title, claiming that the increasing administrative costs of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) should require state governments to become more responsible when administering and regulating food assistance programs, specifically with regard to enforcing work requirements.
Additionally, Republicans highlighted that modernizing the farm safety net for farmers and ranchers must be at the forefront of the reconciliation bill. Democrats heavily criticized the Republicans’ bill, arguing that the SNAP program helps families access food and reducing the nutrition title’s funding would decrease benefits and cause many to go hungry, and emphasized that many states would not be able to adequately cover the cost share of the program. Moreover, Democrats stated that sufficiently funding SNAP would increase food demand, benefiting agricultural producers.
From a commodity lens, the bill included increases to reference prices and enhancements to the crop insurance title. Additionally, funding for trade promotion priorities such as the Market Access Program (MAP) and Foreign Market Development (FMD) program was doubled, as they were in the last Congress’s farm bill.
In addition to Ag, the House Ways and Means Committee advanced its bill extending the provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) as well as several other favorable agricultural tax-related measures. Now that all the Committees given reconciliation instructions have held their individual markups, the House Budget Committee will assemble and ready the bill for consideration. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has indicated that he intends to have the House Rules Committee consider the bill next week, with the hopes of being able to then call a vote on the House floor before the Memorial Day recess. Many Republican holdouts remain, making the bill’s pathway forward towards passage uncertain. You can find the text for the Committee’s print here, and can watch part 1 of the markup here and part 2 here.
White House Announces Trade Deals in the Works with China and the U.K.
Last weekend, talks regarding a potential U.S./China trade agreement began to surface. On Monday, the White House announced that a potential trade deal with China is in the works that would significantly reduce the current tariffs on trade for 90 days while negotiations between the two countries continue. With this, the U.S. plans to reduce its reciprocal tariffs on China from 145% to 30%, while China is cutting its tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. The temporary de-escalation of these tariffs aims to further negotiations toward a more comprehensive trade deal between the US and China.
Also recently, President Trump announced a trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K., with the intent of strengthening relationships and market access for American agriculture. President Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer held talks at the end of last week and reached an agreement on the new deal, which is expected to be finalized in the coming weeks. It is understood that the deal will aim to streamline the customs process for U.S. agriculture, eliminating many of the non-tariff trade barriers that restrict U.S. agriculture’s access to the U.K. market. These negotiations do not impact the overall 10% tariff on British imports, which remains the baseline, like many other countries following the April 2 announcement.
| | USRPA Joins Mother's Day Celebration in Guatemala | |
Last week, the US Rice Producers Association (USRPA), together with our promotions team in Guatemala, organized a series of activities where moms were the central focus to commemorate Mother's Day. To culminate the week of celebrations, on Saturday, May 10, Mother’s Day in Guatemala, we cooked a giant paella to celebrate and honor all mothers. The heartfelt event took place at Eskala Roosevelt, a popular local shopping mall, and brought families together around a flavorful rice dish. It was a joyful occasion that underscored the importance of love, family, and tradition, while highlighting the cultural richness and versatility of rice as a staple in celebrations.
Iris Figueroa, Western Hemisphere Marketing Manager for USRPA, emphasized the value of these initiatives, stating: “Incorporating these kinds of cultural and family-centered activities into our promotional programs is essential. They not only strengthen our connection with consumers but also create memorable experiences around rice, showcasing its role in cherished moments and traditions.”
| | Discover What’s Ahead at RMTC 2025 | The RMTC 2025 program agenda is packed with insightful presentations and networking opportunities that bring together key players from across the global rice industry. Attendees can look forward to sessions covering the latest trends in rice production, trade dynamics, sustainability initiatives, and technological innovations. | | |
One more Throwback from #RMTC2013 in Miami! Looking forward to #RMTC2025 and celebrating the opportunity to connect, reconnect, and grow together, see you soon!
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Food & Agriculture
Regulatory & Policy Roundup
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Deadline: August 15, 2025
| | | World Agricultural Production | | | Grain: World Markets & Trade | | | |
May 28 - 30, 2025
Rice Market & Technology Convention
Miami, Florida
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June 17, 2025
2025 Victoria County Crop Tour
Victoria, TX
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June 24, 2025
51st Annual Eagle Lake Field Day
Eagle Lake, TX
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July 10, 2025
77th Annual Beaumont Field Day
Beaumont, TX
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August 6, 2025
MU Fisher Delta REEC Ag Expo
Portageville, MO
More details to come
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August 7, 2025
University of Arkansas 2025 Stuttgart Rice Field Day
Stuttgart, AR
More details to come
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August 14, 2025
Missouri Rice Research & Merchandising Council Annual Field Day
Glennonville, MO
More details to come
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USRPA does not discriminate in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, or marital/family status. Persons who require alternative means for communication of information (such as Braille, large print, sign language interpreter or translation) should contact USRPA at 713-974-7423. |
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