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January 19, 2025
Key Developments and What We're Discussing Today:
1) Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal that could lead to the release of all 98 remaining hostages (alive and dead). It's been 471 days since October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists infiltrated Israel on Simchat Torah and murdered 1,200 people (including 44 Americans). More Jews were murdered on that day than on any day since the Holocaust. Hamas wounded 3,300 and took 251 hostage during a day of brutal savagery and sexual violence. The Trump administration must follow through and ensure that all 98 remaining hostages are accounted for and freed.
2) The 98 remaining hostages include seven Americans. Keith Siegal and Sagui Dekel-Chen, both thought to be alive, are among the 33 on the list for the first phase of hostage releases, leaving Edan Alexander as the only American thought to be alive not in the first group. Hamas holds the bodies of Omer Neutra, Itay Chen, Judi Weinstein Haggai, and Gad Haggai.
3) Republicans will introduce bill after nice-sounding bill with dangerous provisions that most Democrats will oppose because they've read their provisions. The GOP kicked off 2025 with the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, the Laken Riley Act, and the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act.
4) Pete Hegseth's confirmation hearings dominated the news but the Senate should not let Republicans use Trump's worst nominees to shift the Overton window on whether a nominee deserves Senate confirmation. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Mike Huckabee, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are not as bad as Hegswith, Tulsi Gabbard, or Kash Patel, but they are nonetheless problematic on Israel and antisemitism.
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Hi Steve,
Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal that would lead to an end to the Gaza War and the eventual release of the remaining hostages in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including convicted terrorists, some convicted of murder.
This is what we know about the remaining hostages and when they might be freed.
Israel is paying a heavy price for the release of hostages whom Hamas had no justification for taking. This deal does reward Hamas for terrorism. But redeeming hostages, even at a high price, is a Jewish value, which is why Israel has entered into similar deals in the past.
Rachel Goldberg-Polin and Jon Polin, whose son Hersh was executed in Gaza, issued a statement welcoming the announcement of the hostage deal. Read more from Rachel Goldberg-Polin.
President Biden laid out the precise contours of this plan on May 31, 2024. Netanyahu rejected it and Hamas continuously found ways to say "no," but the Biden-Harris administration never gave up on the hostages.
This didn't magically happen because Trump snapped his fingers. Ilan Goldenberg and Joel Rubin explain the timing of the deal and why it happened now.
Trump has repeatedly told gullible Jewish audiences that there will be "all hell to pay" if the hostages are not released by the time he's inaugurated but he's never said what he meant.
At most, only three hostages will be released by the time he's inaugurated. Let's see what hell Trump makes Hamas pay. I'm guessing Trump will make them pay as much as he made Mexico pay for that wall.
The Biden-Harris administration has worked tirelessly, in public and privately, for 15 months to get to this point, conducting difficult, painstaking negotiations.
However, the Biden and Trump teams have closely cooperated on this issue, and to that extent, and to the extent that Trump applied last-minute pressure on Netanyahu, the Trump team deserves some credit.
It will be interesting to see how Republicans dance around wanting to give Trump credit without admitting that pressure on Israel's government--the only credit Trump might deserve--is sometimes good policy.
If Trump successfully concludes this deal by ensuring that all parties follow through on their commitments and that all the hostages come home when the ceasefire ends, I won't care who gets the credit. What matters is that the hostages come home. If Trump creates a lasting framework for peace then like Rob Eshman, I'll even be fine if Trump wins a Nobel Peace Prize.
The next step, if Palestinian, Israeli, and American leaders are smart enough to take it, should be a broad agreement that integrates Israel into the region and provides for a time-bound, conditions-based path toward forming an independent Palestinian state.
They won't be smart enough. Ilan Goldenberg explains that the more likely result will be "a weak Hamas in charge of Gaza, untold numbers of Palestinians living in horrific conditions, and no promising path forward for either side."
Secretary Blinken delivered a speech on January 14 that you should read if you want to understand what happened since October 7 and what needs to happen next.
In that speech, Blinken reiterated two points that I made in my recent newsletter answering objections to a two-state solution: "No one should expect Israel to accept a Palestinian state that is led by Hamas" and working toward a two-state solution would not be a reward for Hamas: it "would be the ultimate rebuke to its nihilistic agenda of death and destruction."
Don't swallow these poison pills. As long as they control Congress, Republicans will bring up votes on bills with appealing names that purport to address certain problems. In some cases, these bills will contain provisions that make sense.
They'll also contain dangerous, unacceptable provisions that force Democrats to vote against what might seem a popular bill because the bill would do more damage than good.
For several years, Republicans previewed this strategy with the Antisemitism Awareness Act (it never passes both the House and Senate but like Freddy Krueger, it keeps coming back). Who could be against antisemitism awareness? That's hard to vote against unless you've read the bill.
Right off the bat in 2025, Republicans introduced three bills with who-could-possibly-be-against-it sounding names. We should thank the vast majority of Democrats who voted against them.
One: Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL) explains the serious problems with the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, which all but three Democrats opposed.
Two: Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA) and Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL) explain why the vast majority of Democrats opposed the cruel and misguided Laken Riley Act.
Three: The International Criminal Court was wrong to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), one of Israel's best friends in Congress for decades, explains why the vast majority of Democrats nevertheless voted against the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act.
Isn't it cute how the bill's initials are the same as International Criminal Court? The ICC Act! How clever. It should have been named the Creative Republican Attempt at Poppycock Act.
Don't let Republicans shift the Overton window. Nearly all the Trump nominees who require Senate approval are unqualified. Some have histories of antisemitism or problematic votes on Israel. Some are worse than others but we cannot accept any of those nominees as normal or acceptable.
David Graham wrote in November that "perversely, the sheer quantity of individually troubling nominees might actually make it harder for the Senate to block any of them."
Graham noted that "the circuslike bombardment of freakishly unqualified personnel picks calls to mind Steve Bannon’s notorious insight that the press can handle only so much information, real or fake, without being overloaded."
Democrats should hold all of Trump's nominees to the standard we'd expect nominees appointed by a sane president to meet and vote them up or down accordingly.
I could devote a series of newsletters to Trump's nominees but these are particularly troublesome on Israel and antisemitism, and they are not the worst of Trump's nominees:
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Trump's choice for UN ambassador, supports the Great Replacement Theory, the same racist, antisemitic conspiracy theory that the shooter who killed ten Black Americans in Buffalo believed in. Stefanik backed Carl Paladino for Congress. She voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election results.
Imagine Stefanik in the UN lecturing other countries about antisemitism and democracy--assuming anyone can hear what she's saying over the laughter. The Nexus Project is right: Anyone or any organization that cares about fighting antisemitism must speak out against her.
Mike Huckabee, Trump's choice for ambassador to Israel, is a right-wing Evangelical extremist and a racist. He is a strong ally of the settler movement and supports Israeli annexation of the West Bank, which would effectively make Israel an apartheid state and weaken support for Israel in the U.S. and around the world. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) said, "as a secular Zionist, I find nothing remotely appealing about the fundamentalism of Mike Huckabee.”
Tristan Sturn explains that the goal of Huckabee's ideology "is the removal of Palestinians from the biblically defined land of Israel to facilitate Christ’s return. ... Huckabee envisions a state of Israel that extends from the river to the sea: From the Mediterranean to the river Euphrates, and down to the River Nile."
We'll have to wait and see to find out if Huckabee's vision of the end of days is theologically sound, but its practical implications for Israel and the Palestinians are horrifying.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Trump's choice for Secretary of State, voted against the package that included $14 billion in emergency aid to Israel twice, on February 13 when it could have passed and on April 23 on final passage. He was in the minority of even Republicans on the April 23 vote.
Rubio doesn't understand antisemitism or BDS either--his misleadingly titled Combating BDS Act would have done nothing of the sort.
Compared to Trump's other nominees, he's not so bad. But remember back in December 2024 when some Democratic senators supported purely symbolic resolutions opposing arms for Israel that constituted a fraction of the total amount of arms we provide to Israel and Republicans went nuts?
Rubio twice voted against the largest aid package in the history of the U.S.-Israel relationship but Republicans could not care less. Rubio will be in charge of implementing foreign policy. This is not normal.
It wasn't that long ago when voting against aid bills to Israel was a deal-breaker for certain pro-Israel organizations. Not anymore, at least not if the "no" votes are cast by Republicans.
Anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump's choice to head Health and Human Services, promoted an antisemitic conspiracy theory about Jews and COVID.
Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth supports a new Christian crusade. For those who are not history buffs: Christian crusades are not good for Jews. Timothy Snyder lists Hegseth's blatant anti-qualifications for office. Tom Nichols writes that Republican support for Hegseth means the GOP is no longer the party of national security. Watch Hegseth evade all of Sen. Elissa Slotkin's (D-MI) questions.
Tomorrow is Trump's inauguration. It's also Martin Luther King Jr Day. The arc of the moral universe is too long.
Corrections. I'm entitled to my own opinions but not to my own facts, so I appreciate it when readers bring errors to my attention. No one pointed out any errors in last week's newsletter, so I guess it was perfect--and short, as promised. Thanks again to everyone who supported my work.
In Case You Missed It:
1) In his farewell address, President Biden warned of oligarchy taking shape in America and "the dangerous concentration of power in the hands of a very few ultrawealthy people" and the avalanche of false information Americans are under. Biden proposed reforms to protect our democracy, which the Republican Congress will ignore because they see these flaws as a feature, not a bug.
2) Norm Eisen wrote a Contrarian Take on Volume One of Jack Smith's report. You can read the full report for yourself, or you can get the gist from the first four pages, which summarize it. Either way, you'll be more ashamed than you are now that Trump will again be president.
3) Trump chose a Muslim cleric who refused to call Hezbollah a terrorist organization to deliver a benediction at his inauguration. He appointed Mel Gibson as a Special Ambassador to Hollywood despite Gibson's antisemitic outbursts. No Republicans are calling out any of this.
4) Rob Eshman writes that January 6 pardons would be an insult and a threat to Jews as well as a “slap in the face” to the officers who rioters attacked and assaulted that day.
5) Historian Heather Cox Richardson writes that "it’s as if the Confederates’ descendants have captured the government of the United States."
6) House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) ordered that the flags flying at half-staff in memory of Jimmy Carter be raised for Trump's inauguration. Not even Richard Nixon was this petty--he was inaugurated in 1973 with flags flying half-staff in memory of Harry Truman. This is the same Mike Johnson who hypocritically refuses to allow proxy voting.
Social Posts of the Week. Mr. Newberger, Dan's Cafe, and David Axelrod.
Video Clips of the Week. Ditching fact-checkers isn’t the only big change coming to Meta and Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias with this year's rejected personalized license plates.
Vintage Music Clips of the Week. Muddy Waters - live on The Blues Gospel Train 1964 and while not music per se, here's Bob Dylan yelling at someone about throwing glass in the street (watch the clip and then read the comments; the clip is from the Dylan documentary "Don't Look Back").
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder (yes, I wrote it). If someone forwarded this newsletter to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my posts on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism and on the IHRA definition of antisemitism. My definition of "pro-Israel" is here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
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