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One of the unalloyed joys of our job these days is around Fed meetings. We’ve known for four years this moment would arrive, but the timing and extent of the rate cut kept analysts guessing. And despite countless experts weighing in until the last minute, the Fed’s “big move” caught many by surprise.
Not that the dovish option wasn’t on the table. Indeed, until the last day or so, weak labor data pointed to the more dramatic move. But then lower-than-expected jobless claims shifted opinion back towards 25 bps. We supported that view, believing anything greater would signal panic. After such deliberate moves for so long, why rush?
Which is why these decisions are best left to the experts. Once it was announced, surprised or not, analysts and the markets applauded the move. Rather than anxiety about forestalling a recession, it telegraphed confidence that inflation was at last under control, and attention could now shift to keeping the economy momentum going and unemployment under control...
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